Aggre-blogging: The Final Countdown

Only a few more days left in the year. I’m ready for the sprint to the end to be over.

» Chron: Veteran lawmaker Abercia decides to retire
It seems as if Abercia’s been around forever instead of just since 1990. But that might be due more to the fact that my family returned to Houston in 1987. Regardless, it sure seems like some political old-timers are hanging it up lately.

In case its totally alien to you about what I do, the demographics and election math in Constable Precinct 1 are below the fold. It’s fairly solidly Dem-leaning. But one tidbit about Constable & JP districts is that they apparently aren’t required to undergo redistricting. Something to do with them being more administrative in function and outside the scope of one-man/one-vote requirements and all that. The result is that Pct 1 has 696,436 people in it while Phil Camus’ Precinct 5 has 1,100,496. The smallest jurisdiction, however, belongs to Victor Trevino’s Precinct 6 with 148,395. Wacky. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see Commissioners Court take up the “emergency” in this discrepancy sometime soon.

» Toledo Blade: Kaptur, Kucinich file for race in 9th District for 2012 Democratic primary
I’m with the chick on this one.

» Wash. Post: Under Obama, an emerging global apparatus for drone killing
Always fascinating reading. And on a marginally-related note, I did not get what I really wanted for Christmas. Probably just as well since I’d need two of them in case I crash one. Oh, and the fact that they run north of $50k probably had something to do with it.

» Wash. Post: Romney and Santorum surge as Iowa caucuses near
Santorum-mentum doesn’t quite have the ring that Roemer-mentum does. But the fact that even Rick Santorum is getting a surge in the GOP field really does suggest that everyone will get their 15 seconds of fame in the GOP primary.

» The Chron editorial board dogpiles on the irony of Rick Perry being kept off the ballot by “election integrity” laws. PoliticalWire has the backgrounder.

» Star-Telegram: Dickey’s winners will get their fill of barbecue
This is exactly what it means to lose by winning. Tried this place once in Clear Lake. It is easily the worst thing passing for BBQ that I could possibly imagine. Sure, I can be finicky about BBQ. I love Pappa’s and am no fan of Goode Co. … just so you know where I stand. But I can at least have intelligent BBQ-related conversations with those who prefer their BBQ with a watery vinegar sauce. I tried Colter’s BBQ while on my JerryWorld vacation. Not great, but a decent knock-off of the Pappa’s formula. I once frequented a local BBQ establishment that was nothing to write home about simply due to the proximity to work and the fact that it’s really hard to screw up a sliced beef sandwich. So it’s not like I’m overly picky. Dickeys, on the other hand … is a complete insult to BBQ. That is all.

» Arizona Republic: Concussion symptoms likely to sideline Cardinals QB Kevin Kolb
The Kevin Kolb Era 2.0 didn’t quite get off to a terrific start in Phoenix. Here’s the stat line for the season, assuming he doesn’t play at all tomorrow:

                      CMP  ATT   YDS    CMP%   AVG   TD  INT  RATING
2011 Regular Season   146  253  1,955   57.7   7.73   9   8    81.1

The QB Rating puts him just beneath Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton and just above Buffalo’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. I don’t see it as likely that the backup for the Cards (John Skelton) is going to get a serious look at competing for the starting role next season. But I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Cards bring in a veteran backup since this is the second season in a row that Kolb has seen extensive sideline action thanks to a concussion. Here’s hoping next year is a lot better.

         Total Pop         Voting Age Pop.
------------------------------------------
         696,436           517,185
------------------------------------------
Anglo    202,317 (29.1%)   175,755 (34.0%)
Hispanic 344,008 (49.4%)   226,810 (43.9%)
Afr-Am   114,739 (16.5%)    86,705 (16.8%)
Asian     26,600 ( 3.8%)    22,052 ( 4.3%)

2010 Governor
----------------------
Perry - 47,231 (35.6%)
White - 83,369 (62.9%)
----------------------
Total   132,590

2008 President
-----------------------
McCain -   74,351 (38.3%)
Obama -   119,575 (61.7%)

2008 Senate
-------------------------
Cornyn -   71,169 (37.0%)
Noriega - 117,002 (60.9%)
-------------------------
Total     192,271

Aggre-blogging: The Post-Christmas Lull

Still slaving over pixels, demographics, and writing. I trust that your extended weekend was better. An abbreviated news roundup as the rest of the news world took a few days off.

» San Antonio Express-News: D.C. judges see Texas bias
Standard disclaimer: you’re just not following redistricting’s legal round properly unless you’re reading Michael Li’s blog. The DC Circuit court has spoken up on Texas Redistricting … and the early news is not good for the Texas GOP. There’s also some interesting tidbits in the court’s decision regarding coalition districts. It’ll be interesting to see what that means for the HD26/137/149 corridor in the Houston area. (Related: Michael has the Houston-area Organization of Chinese-Americans’ amicus brief posted for more reading on the treatment of those three districts.)

» Wash. Post: Code for America: An elegant solution for government IT problems (Vivek Wadhwa)
It sure would be great to have local government that saw value in something like this. Just sayin’.

» New Republic: The Mandate Miscalculation (Paul Starr)
» New Repubic: Was the Mandate a Mistake? (Jonathan Cohn)
Yeah, so I’m still with Paul Starr on this one. It’s arguable that the health care mandate cost Democrats their governing majority, although I’m also of the opinion that if Obama signed into law a mandate that we all like puppies, that would have served as a suitable substitute. Still … I think the puppy thing would have faded as an issue by now. Staking your political reputation as being a “BFD” on health care reform by forcing everyone to go buy health insurance, not so much.

» Economist: The faith (and doubts) of our fathers
I’ve always found it odd that the relatively modern “War on the Founders” was a necessary pre-condition to the Christian faith. That and creationism and forced prayer in school. Steven Waldman’s “Founding Faith” is a good enough rebuttal to the first while still noting the importance that Christian faith had in the founding.

» Demos: From Citizenship To Voting: Improving Registration For New Americans
Bookmarked for future reading.

» A bit of Greg Trivia for the few who might care: I’ve never seen Van Halen with David Lee Roth. I’ve seen Van Hagar and Van Cherone (which was a great live show, FWIW). I didn’t catch either the Sammy Reunion tour of 2004 or the first DLR Reunion tour of 2007. I did manage to take in the Sam & Dave show in 2002. Dave’s voice was shot and I left after his very horrible set. But the allure lives on. Still, I may have to entertain the idea of catching this version of the reunion for a while. At least until I see how expensive the tickets are.

Aggre-blogging: The Christmas Eve Series

A couple of days worth of reading material below. But I’ll also take the time to note that I’ve added the Legislature’s H283 plan to the Almanac. The result is that if you want to spend your Christmas holiday comparing the Lege’s response for each individual House district and the Western District’s response … you can. Or, you can unwrap presents, enjoy time with family and do all of those things that I’m told normal people do. Whatever. I’m using the quiet time to catch up on some writing projects and add to the Almanac. To each their own.

» Chron: Federal judges slam Texas’ redistricting formula
Interesting ruling, particularly in how they start to elaborate on the treatment of coalition districts. While I’m eager to see what that means for the treatment of HD26/137/149 in southwest Houston, I’m not expecting the ruling to have a determining impact on what the more partisan Supreme Court opts to do with regard to Texas redistricting.

» Wash. Post: Justice Dept. rejects South Carolina voter ID law, calling it discriminatory
Good leading indicator for what’s to follow with Texas’ more restrictive Voter ID. I guess the only real question now is whether the Supreme Court will want to expedite a ruling in order for the laws to be in effect prior to November.

» Chron: Texans have to at least think about making a QB change after this effort
The T.J. Yates era is over. He may be good enough to be our version of Cody Carlson, but we still need something approximating our version of a Warren Moon under center to get a playoff win this season.

» Wash. Post: Journalists complain the White House press office has become overly combative
But, gosh … why on earth would a Democratic administration be upset with an allegedly partisan/liberal/friendly media? The myth of liberal media bias just never holds up to close scrutiny. Or even distant scrutiny for that matter. Lots of faults to find in how 24-hour media does it’s job … but widespread partisan or ideological bias doesn’t even crack the Top 100. Kinda telling that the article mentions the former Chron writer, Julie Mason. Her reporting has typically been about as thin as you could imagine of a professional reporter on the White House beat.

» Kevin Drum: Redistricting in California
CalPundit picks away at the ProPublica report on California’s Redistricting Committee. If the conclusion one draws of the ProPublica report is that the GOP didn’t do the same thing, I’d have to agree with Drum … they’re idiots and they deserve to lose a handful of seats. But the estimate of that handful or so seats that might be gained is certainly suspect. And I’m not under any delusion that no Republican-inclined soul testified to the commission. If there’s something more nefarious to what went down with the Commission, then it’s worth spelling out those differences. The lack of transparency in the system should still be viewed as a bug in the system and hopefully not a feature.

» Wash. Post: Rise of the drone: From Calif. garage to multibillion-dollar defense industry
Fascinating stuff for me, at least. And it reminds me to plug a Christmas gift idea in case anyone wants to drop $50k just to see me do a cartwheel. As a bonus, I’ll gladly produce a video flyover of your home.

Aggre-blogging: And Still, No Christmas Shopping Done

Another sampler of the daily reading list …

» NY Times: For Democrats in Hawaii, Unease in an Oasis
This issue has a longer backstory than the print story has space to go into. But it’s definitely a very curious case (no pun intended). While former Governor Lingle proved very popular in the state, I have a hard time seeing one out of three Obama voters in the state switching over to Lingle on the same ballot.

» Arizona Republic: Cardinals haven’t decided on starting QB vs. Bengals
I’ve generally been of the opinion that Kolb is the kind of QB that needs three solid years under center to begin making his mark as an NFL regular. The lockout and shortened free agency period certainly didn’t do him any favors in the first year with the Cards. But the concussions may be more of a concern than his rate of improvement.

» WSJ: And a Happy Festivus From Congress Too (Rep. Jeff Flake)
Curious why there’s no talk about an investigation or hearing on the matter. I don’t think it would be a terrible idea to get the discussion started on what’s really needed for a mail budget for each Congressional office in the third decade of the internet era. And if it means ridding internet ads from the budget … all the better.

» Des Moines Register: Santorum: Vander Plaats told me ‘he needed money’ to promote endorsement
This isn’t entirely uncommon for smaller, cash-strapped groups that look to make their name known by making these type of endorsements. That’s not to say that people can’t come to their own conclusion about the impropriety of it (or not). But it’s by no means limited to just one group.

» Politico: Newt Gingrich’s no-message message
For a guy who once complained that too many Republicans rely on talking points, this definitely registers a hearty “heh.”

» ProPublica: How Democrats Fooled California’s Redistricting Commission
I’m not opposed to the concept of a commission drawing the lines, but if you’re selling it as “independent”, you sure as heck ought to go a bit more out of the way to make it be just that.

» Texas Redistricting: Opening SCOTUS briefs in interim map appeal
» SCOTUSblog: Texas pushes its election map
And not that letting the lowest approval-rating earners on earth do the cartography is the only (or best) way to go …

Aggre-blogging: When Work Fails to Take a Holiday

Still slogging my way through some work-related material, so here’s the less-than-a-nickel version of what’s been catching my eye lately …

» Zeke Emanuel on cost-shifting vs premium support. Or, when a voucher is a cop-out vs a solution.

» I’d love to see B-Cycle come to Houston. If there’s a bike station near home, I think an annual membership is in order. But the minimal usage might be used for trekking to an insanely Metro-unfriendly new location for church from downtown.

» Rick Perry is still not Presidential material.

» We’ve already gone from four names to three in the UH football coaching interview series. I’m not overly familiar with what interim head coach Tony Levine brings to the table, but I do have a good sense of what Jason Phillips brings to it. I’d probably be fine with either as long as they maintain an innovative offense and find some way to keep improving on the defense like we saw this year. Of course, the old Oilers fan in me can’t be too displeased that Brent Pease is also in the mix for the gig. I’m just guessing that Reggie Slack is otherwise occupied.

» The Darkness are back in their original form, and are set to tour the US in February. No Houston date yet. I’m a bit disappointed that they went with the original bassist when the second one was far superior and didn’t look like a Village People castoff.

» Hot off my Kindle Fire: “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”. Not a bad take on the genre. I’ve also picked up two Kindle Singles for future reading: “The Naked City” by Ryan Avent and “Betterness” by Umair Haque. Taylor Branch has a very extended version of his article on college sports available as a Single, as well. Might pick that up later. Continual reading of “Gone to Texas” and some time spent unwinding with free episodes of “Arrested Development” and “My Name is Earl” have kept me from getting too involved with Madden 12 on the device. No complaints there.

Aggre-blogging: The Weekend Reading Litany

A minor compendium of news items and think-pieces read during a so-called vacation …

» Rest in peace, Vaclav Havel. He was exactly the sort of anti-communist that any good rock & roller could relate to. It’s a shame his plays aren’t available on the Kindle for a quick read on the ride back home. I’ve been meaning to find an excuse to read “The Garden Party.” A podcast from this reading may have to suffice.

» Another big important Ron Brownstein read, this time on the economic status of the over-50 set.

» I’ve said on a few occasions that the views on illegal immigration by immigrants isn’t necessarily as clean and easy (or even supportive, for that matter) as many on the left might like to think.

» But the opposition to dealing with the above situation can certainly seem more predictable.

» Suburban Bhutanese … kinda has a ring to it.

» Jesus loves Tim Tebow. He just doesn’t wear it on his sleeve. And Jesus’ take on Tom Brady is pretty spot-on, also.

Runoff ’11: Mapping the At Large 2 Results

The unofficial canvass is out. I’m still wanting to get into some details of the AL2 runoff to see if the map looks any different for absentee votes compared to the early & E-day numbers. The takeaway from this map is that Burks got just enough of a slice of GOP areas. Even though he didn’t win them, getting in the 40s in those areas was no easy trick. My working theory is that the absentee program did much of the margin-cutting, but we’ll see when we have the official canvass.

Some of the notable impact of that margin-cutting is seen on the GOP side of Kristi’s old district. HD133 stood out in the first map as it was a big field and Kristi’s name ID combined with the campaign’s efforts in the area were a big differentiator. In the second round, Burks managed to win precincts 492, 493, and 504 by slim margins. Outside of HD133, Burks was able to get 43.7% in the River Oaks Country Club precinct 227. Turnout was roughly around 10% in each of those boxes and the undervote was under 5% in the HD133 boxes.

Elsewhere, Burks managed to carry Kingwood in the mid-50s, with an undervote of over 10%. Westside precincts outside of HD133 were a mixed bag, but mostly went for Kristi while Burks still managed to get in the low-40s. Likwise, Kristi won Clear Lake with Burks getting a better-than-average low-40s. It’s not quite the pincer strategy that Team Locke might have been dreaming about in 2009, but it was obviously enough to win for Burks in a low-turnout runoff situation.

The different levels of Kristi’s support in African-American neighborhoods were also worth looking at. The entire Fort Bend counts showed an impressive 32%, while Fifth Ward and south Houston boxes went roughly averaged in the mid-20s and Acres Homes precincts showing some sub-20 results. That’s not too shabby considering the fact that Burks has generally gotten pretty solid showings in Afr-Am areas in the past decade or so.

For now, here’s the precinct-by-precinct details on Burks vs Thibaut. Poke, zoom, and click to your heart’s content.

full page – Google Earth

Color-coding:
dark blue – 65% or more for Thibaut
blue – 50-64% for Thibaut
light blue – 45-49% for Thibaut
light red – 35-44% for Thibaut
red – 0-34% for Thibaut

Runoff ’11: Mapping the At Large 5 Results

At Large 5 went about as expected after seeing the November results. And Jolanda’s showing in Anglo Dem areas was pretty much the deciding factor here. The tale of the tape is pretty evident in Pct. 222 (pretty much the poster child of Anglo Dem boxes). There, Jack Christie won 67.4 to 32.6 and absolutely no undervote. Montrose precincts were a mixed bag, going roughly 50-50.

The impact of the “rain tax” coalition support that backed Jolanda seems to have had very mixed results. Kingwood boxes never broke double digits while Clear Lake boxes routinely held in the low-20s. Hispanic precincts definitely don’t seem to have done Jolanda any favors, also. Although she had a few successes in particular precincts, there were numerous ones that had her in the low-30s. Whether Jack Christie ends up voting like someone with the support of Hispanic and Anglo Dem voters, as well as those of more conservative Republican types, remains to be seen. As in the case of AL2′s Andrew Burks, it may not prove possible to vote in a way that makes each of those constituencies happy over a 6 year run.

full page – Google Earth

Color-coding:
dark blue – 65% or more for Jones
blue – 50-64% for Jones
light blue – 45-49% for Jones
light red – 35-44% for Jones
red – 0-34% for Jones

(Still) Waiting For Something We Already Have

» Chron: An app for Metro’s bus system (Editorial)

I’m a little late to this. But I’m still smacking my head against the wall when I read it …

We’re eagerly anticipating Metro’s upcoming smartphone application, Houston T.R.I.P., which stands for Transit Route Information and Planner.

This app, if implemented correctly, could help Houstonians navigate a bus system that’s as sprawling as the city it serves.

Again, this sort of thing already exists in Google Maps. That’s a free service that I, at least, use on a daily basis on my phone. Ironically enough, I looked at how serviceable the transit info was when I landed in Fort Worth and learned that their transit agency does not share schedule information with Google. But, so far as Houston goes, the freely available Google Maps version of this service is now being supplemented with a vastly overpriced “app” that does much the same thing.

As for the one new thing that is genuinely worth looking forward to, the Chron still seems a bit behind the times:

But the real game-changer in Metro’s app is the promise of using GPS to let riders track buses in real time. Waiting for a bus in Houston can be a thoroughly miserable experience: the 100 degree weather, the lack of street-level businesses in so many neighborhoods and the unnerving sensation of being stared at by drivers like you’re some deviation from the natural order.

GPS tracking will let riders know where their bus is and when it’s going to arrive, minimizing the amount of time riders need to spend at bus stops. By reducing uncertainty and waiting time, this new app should make Metro feel more like a convenient carpool than the current exercise in patience.

Furthermore, the GPS tracking will remove any doubt as to whether a bus has already arrived or is merely running late, an important issue for buses that run every 30 minutes, or when the bus in question is the final bus of the night.

Of course, no system’s perfect: Not everyone has a smartphone. But perhaps Metro can program a system that allows riders to text their bus line and stop number, and receive back the arrival time for the next bus. Then nearly all riders could benefit from Metro’s GPS tracking.

Text service notwithstanding, the real game-changer would be to have METRO develop an API that allows third-party developers to create their own tools and let the most productive tools rise to the top. See here for how that’s done well. Standardizing and freeing up the data on METRO stops/boardings/etc would also be a worthwhile step. It would be a lot more cost-effective than paying a five-figure sum to an “app” that already does what the free service you’ve been supporting does.

Runoff 2011

Belatedly …

DISTRICT A
Helena Brown     3,035 55.5%
Brenda Stardig   2,435 44.5%
Cast Votes:      5,470

DISTRICT B
Alvin Byrd       3,029 49.2%
Jerry Davis      3,127 50.8%
Cast Votes:      6,156

AT-LARGE POSITION 2
Kristi Thibaut  25,945 49.8%
Andrew Burks    26,156 50.2%
Cast Votes:     52,101 

AT-LARGE POSITION 5
Jack Christie   30,600 54.2%
Jolanda Jones   25,819 45.8%
Cast Votes:     56,419

Tough to see any situation whereby Andrew Burks will be on council for two full years. The GOP types who played in the election wanted him there, though. It’ll be interesting to see how he ends up voting. Likewise, with Jack Christie.

Kuff notes that the next cycle has only one open seat: Melissa Noriega’s. And whether anyone thinks their odds would be better there or in a smaller field against Burks is certainly a worthwhile question for now. But it’ll have to wait until we have a sense of who sees 2013 as their time for either At Large spot. I’d hope to see a viable Hispanic candidate end up in the mix for either seat. Whether Jones and/or Stardig look to make comebacks next time around also seems like a good hypothetical.

As for finding some meaning behind it all, I’m not convinced that there’s much to find. I’m not quite convinced of Professor Stein’s hypothesis from the General Election. And I’m not entirely convinced it was the central defining issue of the runoff, either.

Among the things I’ll be looking for in the final canvass is what the vote looks like among the absentees vs the in-person ballots. In the case of the AL2 contest, that made all of the difference for Burks. And my hunch is that it allowed him to get a slice of the GOP-leaning vote that he probably didn’t get among the in-persons.

As for “JoJo/Christie 5″, I think the contest had it’s own dynamic, independent of much of the other races going on. And while the turnout model of 2009 and the Mayoral runoff that followed helped save Jolanda, while the lower turnout of 2011 and significantly lower turnout of the runoff made it too steep of a hill. Suffice it to say, but if elections were held in even numbered years, Houston City Council would look dramatically different.

The Gift That Keeps On Giving

I don’t know precisely how many opportunities there are in the world to refer to the “pro-bacterial diarrhea wing of the Republican Party“, but I know that I cannot pass up the opportunity to do so when the moment presents itself. Congratulations to Michael Quinn Sullivan for making it happen.

Aggre-blogging: UH Hangover Edition

A little reviewing of the weekend reading list. Looks like the dayjob will have me buried in coding, Census results, and some presentation work that may or may not spill over to the blog. So enjoy the condensed takes while they last …

» TNR: Slice the Demographics Any Way You Want, But Obama Is In Trouble (Bill Galston)
This is pretty much where I’m at these days. And that may not be much of a shock since I tend to track pretty closely to Galston on a variety of matters. Regardless, I find it difficult to suggest that demographics alone are going to be a savior for Obama. Or at least as much as sometimes get suggested. This is well worth reading for a different tangent on the Center for American Progress’ big report that suggests that demographics are at least a bit of a crutch for Obama.

» The New York Times has two-thirds of their three-parter on the late Derek Boogaard (Part One,
Part Two). Part three should be online late tonight or early tomorrow. So far, there’s been a fair amount of insight that’s been new – namely how Derek handled the transition to the higher paychecks of the National Hockey League. The insight from some of Boogaard’s connections to the Houston Aeros (Asst. Coach Matt Shaw and former Wild exec Tom Lynn) are also pretty interesting.

» NY Times: Some Cities Object to Being Carved Up by Redistricting
This is primarily a read on how Salt Lake City gets sliced up in Congressional Redistricting, but the overtones are certainly felt elsewhere. If the San Antonio court’s version of the Congressional map for Texas holds up, Austin’s situation seems to be resolved quite a bit more to city leaders’ expectations than the lege had done to it.

» NY Times: Health Official Takes Parting Shot at ‘Waste’
Two things: a) It’s not clear to me that Donald Berwick is really referencing anything that can be fixed legislatively despite his insistence that it is government regulations are to blame, and b) it’s not clear to me that the overly expensive “health care reform” that’s gradually being enacted will have much impact on the matter. Much of what Berwick seems to bemoan are the generic levels of duplication, over-testing, and over-prescribing. That’s not quite the same as saying “Here’s where money is going down the toilet” with regards to the Medicare and Medicaid programs that he oversaw for the past year and a half. If there’s anything specific that could impact those expenses, it’s just not covered in the story, which seems more about the fact that Berwick gave an interview rather than the particulars of what he was interviewed about. Details, please!

» NY Times: The Education of a Quarterback
» AZ Republic: Kevin Kolb’s triumphant return a big stepping stone for the streaking Arizona Cardinals
Somewhere in the wailing and moaning of a lost perfect season for my Coogs, I resigned myself to the fact that I might at least have the joy of watching Aaron Rodgers play some lights-out football in the Packers’ quest for a perfect season. And that came within 58 seconds of being challenged by the NY Giants on Sunday. But as bad as Saturday was for the Coogs, Sunday was a bit more thrilling with Kevin Kolb putting together a solid second-half of football that looked like the Kevin Kolb I recognize from his days as a Coog, plus a nice finishing drive by the Packers to keep their record spotless. Considering what the Coog loss left us with, I’ll take it.

» The New Yorker: Monday Night Lights: How Jon Gruden became America’s football coach.
I honestly do not watch a great deal of Monday Night Football since I have a general aversion to ESPN (which is insanely strange considering my addition to watching sporting events), so I’m certain that I don’t have quite as much appreciation of Jon Gruden as this article requires. But even from the perspective of seeing how coaches adjust to something close to the real world. And I swear … I never sat through an entire viewing of The Great Santini, so I’m not sure where the fascination comes from. Maybe it’s just from the parallels in seeing how folks who watch the same games as I do, but get so much more detail out of it that intrigues me. That at least makes sense when you consider that I keep re-reading this piece from The Atlantic about three or four times a football season since it came out.

» Yahoo: Web an increasing tool to link campaigns, voters
An interesting read if you’re fine with the fact that it’s basically free advertising for folks like Google. There’s not a lot of depth here, but it still strikes me as odd how few local candidates are doing online advertising. The Parker campaign did a bit of pre-roll video ads combined with display ads on the same site for a dual impact. That’s not the most cost-effective buy, but the fact is that most folks selling the service are overstating the benefits while the campaigns that do tend to devote some resources to it aren’t too particular to follow through on seeing what they do get from the ads. I know I’m spoiled since that was one of my tasks with the Bill White campaign. But I’m really curious what it’s going to take to make local campaigns realize how cost-effective the medium can be.

» Chron: Manvel silences La Marque 38-35 to advance
Easily, the most rewarding sports news from the weekend. Two Klinglers are a win away from playing for a State Championship in two weeks. My tickets are already procured, regardless of who goes. Here’s what my viewing options are down to so far in the Final Fours:

5A-I … Southlake Carroll v Dallas Skyline … Fort Bend Hightower v San Antonio Madison. Odd bracket on the DFW side since Allen was knocked off by Trinity and Trinity was upset by Arlington Martin. This is the first time since 2003 that the season does not end with a champion that is either Trinity or a team that beat Trinity to advance in the playoffs. I’m pulling for a Skyline/Hightower matchup. If the other teams win out, I may just skip this game. If it’s Hightower vs Southlake, I’m going in full Hightower apparel to root against Southlake.

5A-II … Mansfield Timberview v Spring Dekaney … Port Arthur Memorial v Cibolo Steele. Cibolo Steele made it to JerryWorld last year. Great school and a nice success for a new school, at that. They’re easily one of the bright spots out of the extended San Antonio region. It’d be nice to see if they can repeat, but I’m not opposed to seeing teams that are new to me play for all the marbles.

4A-I … Hewitt Midway v Tyler John Tyler … Lake Travis v Pearland Dawson. Midway is the only school I’m not familiar with. Any of the other three would be some great viewing in Arlington. My sense is that the championship really comes down to Lake Travis and Pearland Dawson, though.

4A-II … Aledo v Corsicana … Manvel v Calallen. I like Manvel’s odds this weekend, but the reality is starting to dawn on me that the “reward” for such a win is to run into the buzzsaw that is Aledo. Aledo had to avenge their season-opening loss to Stephenvill to advance to the quarters and all-world RB Johnathan Gray is tearing up everything in his way. At least when he’s not getting ejected from the game. One step at a time. But it’ll be pretty danged nice to see Manvel in the Championship game.

There’s also a final four pairing in the 2A-1 bracket that has Tatum and Hempstead deciding who goes to the championship. That’s an interesting matchup of two teams I might like to see.

Aggre-blogging: Thanksgiving Leftovers

Hope everyone had a relaxing and/or fulfilling Thanksgiving. A few leftover blog items from stuff I never got around to posting over the extended weekend.

» The Court-ordered Congressional Plan C220 is now updated on the Almanac. I opted to include the 2004 election data since it’s pretty helpful to see how the districts performed without a wave election like 2008 or 2010. Lots of interesting districts, including a few that look as if they could switch parties every two years if the plan were to remain in effect during the entire decade. It won’t, but …. For more on the legal process, including today’s episode with Attorney General Greg Abbott flailing beckoning the Supreme Court to halt the court’s plan, just read everything on Michael Li’s blog.

» Sometime this week, I’ll have a bit more to unpack on the Center for American Progress’s new report: The Path to 270. As one who does a bit of research on demographics and whatnot, I think it’s sometimes too easy to overstate the impact of demographics on elections. There’s an unmistakable trend to where they’re headed, but demographics doesn’t change in quick, sudden fits and spurts. One worthwhile point this report suggests is that 2012 will see non-white voters rise by 2 percentage points. I definitely think that’s in the ballpark of reality. What’s critical, though, isn’t how that plays nationally. It’s how that plays out in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, and other swing states that cast (or we hope to see cast) narrow Democratic majorities in Presidential years.

» NY Times: Team Obama Gears Up for 2012 … Remember Barack Obama? Yeah, well he’s running for President in 2012, too. I don’t know that there’s a great deal of new news unearthed here, but it’s a decent puff piece on the Chicago-centric view from the campaign compared to the DC-centric view of the Oval Office.

» Chron: A&M sociologist sees shift in immigration trends … another great, quick Jeannie Kever Q&A. In this instance, A&M’s Dudley Poston suggests that Chinese may overtake Mexicans among the ranks of undocumented immigrants in the United States. Not sure I see that happening, but read it and form your own opinion. This brief read over at The Atlantic about the “End of Chinatown” probably deserves equal time, though.

» National Journal: The Left Behinds … interesting reading on long-term unemployment. Michael Hirsh isn’t necessarily an economics writer, but he’s a good story-teller. So while the highlights may seem selective in the story, there’s still a lot to chew on with this read.

» One good thing finally comes from the sale of the Astros, as General Manager Ed Wade’s reign of error is over.

» One (more) bad thing happened to the Texans on Sunday, when backup QB Matt Leinart went down for the season. From my cursory viewing of the preseason play, I thought Leinart might finally prove his worth in the NFL if he had the chance. Turns out it was a bit too brief of a chance. It ought to be an interesting week to find out who our rent-a-QB is going to be. I’m a bit partial to Jeff Garcia or Trent Edwards among the names available. But there’s something to be said for Chase Clement coming in and taking over the role once played by Bucky Richardson.

» I’m not sure what to make of the world when it’s an odd-numbered year and my high school loses a playoff football game. I’m still planning the trek to JerryWorld for the championship games. Hope springs eternal that Manvel High will send a couple of members of the Klingler family to Arlington that weekend.

Self-Publicity Alert …

» Texas Tribune: Demographics, and Ideas (Mustafa Tameez, Greg Wythe)

If Texas Democrats want to magnify the advantages of a shifting demographic, they need to better practice the fine art of persuasion. We’ve already seen what can happen when good arguments are made forcefully and clearly to voters when they handed us significant wins in legislative races in 2006 and 2008. Regardless of whether Obama loses or gains a few points from his 2008 showing in Texas, the overall pendulum is moving toward more and more competitive elections during this decade. For Democrats to win in Texas, attention must shift from demographics to the power of our arguments and ideas.

There are other entries from Matt Angle and James Aldrete on the subject of how Democratic candidates might make a comeback in Texas. I’m not ecstatic with the title given our segment because there really isn’t any difference that I see between our takes. Each of the other takes is worth a read as well if you’re up for some reading on the topic.

One point that a ~700 word entry doesn’t necessarily allow for is the psychological factor that running a well-funded campaign in 2010 might have on 2014. This is something that I think we saw in CD7 from the well-funded effort in 2008 and the no-show effort in 2010. Basically, it’s harder to go back to money folks, volunteer folks, and other interested parties who might be involved after a loss that fails to even get as close as you’d hope to see it get in order to see some progress. But with Rick Perry running for President and failing miserably at it (a point Matt raises pretty well), it’s time to talk about the opportunity that might exist, either in running against a weaker Rick Perry in 2014, or possibly in an open seat.

One thing I knew would be a challenge to fit in enough to my liking was a discussion of what issues would turn voters in our favor. Our piece takes a bit of a meta-view, so I’m glad to see James’ variation get a bit more into the issues. Ultimately, the task is more than 700 words will ever do justice. I don’t believe any of us concerned ourselves with particular candidates, although our article alluded to it. It’s safe to say that the Democratic bench for statewide candidates is a very open question right now. Bill White, whatever you think of him, was as big of a threat as Democrats had in the last 4-5 years. Unless he ever runs again, the party is down to looking for someone who either comes out of the celebrity wing, the donor wing, the lower-level elected wing, or the shock out of nowhere wing of the party.

From a cursory review of other states, I’m not sure it’s that big of a deal where a candidate comes from. I refer you to Montana’s Governor, Brian Schweitzer, or former Wyoming Governor, Dave Freudenthal, as cases in point. Each came from relatively unheralded backgrounds to win in some improbably GOP-leaning states. I think we’d all have a similar short list of possible candidates, but the best one is the one that actually gets in the ring. The good news is that not every year is going to be like 2010 and there is an upward trend taking place. Whether it happens as fast as we’d like or if the world as we know it changes so that a Democratic coalition is harder and harder to build in the state … we’ll have to find out after the fact.

At Large Returns: ‘Hood by ‘Hood

Picking up where I left off with the hood-by-hood analysis, here’s all of the At Large contests below the fold …

Anglo Dem Neighborhoods
               Costello  P-Galvan   Boates   Cook
--------------------------------------------------
Heights         61.4%      5.3%     21.7%    11.6%
Meyerland       65.1%      4.2%     19.4%    11.3%
Montrose        74.3%      4.9%     10.9%     9.8%
Rice U          72.2%      3.3%     15.6%     8.9%

African-American Neighborhoods
               Costello  P-Galvan   Boates   Cook
--------------------------------------------------
Acres Homes     41.1%      7.3%     24.1%    27.5%
UH/TSU          44.4%      8.6%     20.4%    26.6%
Fifth Ward      39.4%      9.5%     18.0%    33.0%
Sunnyside       43.4%      7.2%     22.0%    27.4%
Hiram Clarke    49.1%      7.8%     18.9%    24.2%

Anglo GOP Neighborhoods
               Costello  P-Galvan   Boates   Cook
--------------------------------------------------
Clear Lake      50.0%      4.6%     31.8%    13.6%
Galleria        56.2%      2.6%     30.2%    11.0%
Kingwood        39.5%      3.5%     38.7%    18.2%
Garden Oaks     53.3%      6.1%     28.3%    12.3%
River Oaks      66.8%      2.6%     20.6%    10.1%
Spring Branch   45.0%      6.8%     34.4%    13.8%
Memorial        54.4%      2.4%     32.5%    10.6%
Sharpstown      50.9%      7.8%     22.6%    18.6%

Hispanic Neighborhoods
               Costello  P-Galvan   Boates   Cook
--------------------------------------------------
East End        51.8%     28.6%      8.8%    10.7%
Near Northside  47.3%     23.5%     12.2%    17.0%
Hobby           48.8%     14.6%     17.0%    19.6%

Multicultural Neighborhoods
               Costello  P-Galvan   Boates   Cook
--------------------------------------------------
Alief           45.6%     10.0%     21.6%    22.8%

Anglo Dem Neighborhoods
                  Thi    Per    Bur    Fra   Dick   Pool  Griff    Rob    Sho
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Heights         18.5%   7.9%   5.7%  13.5%  11.7%  17.3%  12.5%  10.2%   1.6%
Meyerland       23.3%  13.6%  10.0%   8.9%   4.9%   7.4%  16.0%  11.2%   3.0%
Montrose        14.7%   6.3%   3.4%   9.4%   6.6%  28.1%  10.3%  18.9%   1.2%
Rice U          23.3%   8.5%   7.2%  12.0%   4.0%   9.4%   9.8%  23.0%   1.7%

African-American Neighborhoods
                  Thi    Per    Bur    Fra   Dick   Pool  Griff    Rob    Sho
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Acres Homes     10.0%   3.4%  40.7%   3.8%   3.9%   4.6%   3.8%  16.5%  12.0%
UH/TSU           6.9%   3.1%  34.5%   4.8%   2.3%   5.5%   4.5%  14.1%  23.5%
Fifth Ward       9.3%   4.3%  27.3%   2.8%   5.3%   4.3%   4.4%  23.9%  16.2%
Sunnyside        3.4%   2.7%  54.3%   2.0%   1.2%   1.9%   3.2%  13.3%  17.3%
Hiram Clarke     8.2%   7.7%  27.0%   5.0%   2.3%   3.6%   4.8%  21.6%  18.2%

Anglo GOP Neighborhoods
                  Thi    Per    Bur    Fra   Dick   Pool  Griff    Rob    Sho
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Clear Lake      21.6%  20.7%  13.5%   5.5%   8.7%   5.4%  12.6%   8.0%   1.9%
Galleria        20.1%  16.7%  17.5%  10.1%   8.5%   4.1%  11.5%   8.8%   1.1%
Kingwood        14.6%  25.2%  19.1%   5.4%  11.7%   4.5%   7.3%   8.1%   1.6%
Garden Oaks     13.9%  15.4%   8.7%  12.6%  14.9%  13.7%  10.9%   7.0%   1.3%
River Oaks      18.0%  11.3%  12.1%  10.5%   9.1%   6.4%  12.3%  17.0%   1.7%
Spring Branch   17.8%  17.9%  15.1%   6.2%  10.1%   6.1%  10.9%  10.3%   2.1%
Memorial        24.6%  18.2%  16.5%   6.3%  11.4%   2.6%   9.2%   8.6%   1.2%
Sharpstown      18.9%  16.5%  11.3%  10.1%   8.8%   6.5%  11.0%  12.2%   1.9%

Hispanic Neighborhoods
                  Thi    Per    Bur    Fra   Dick   Pool  Griff    Rob    Sho
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
East End         7.5%  28.0%   2.4%  45.0%   3.4%   3.7%   3.6%   3.5%   1.1%
Near Northside   7.8%  30.9%   8.4%  23.0%   5.1%   5.4%   6.7%   6.4%   4.0%
Hobby            8.7%  25.1%  13.5%  12.5%   5.6%   4.8%   9.0%  10.1%   8.6%

Multicultural Neighborhoods
                  Thi    Per    Bur    Fra   Dick   Pool  Griff    Rob    Sho
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alief           38.2%  15.4%  11.1%   3.4%   5.8%   4.4%   5.2%   9.5%   4.7%

Anglo Dem Neighborhoods
               Noriega   Carmona  Batteau
-----------------------------------------
Heights         68.3%     23.2%     8.5%
Meyerland       64.2%     26.4%     9.4%
Montrose        78.8%     13.9%     7.3%
Rice U          73.5%     19.3%     7.2%

African-American Neighborhoods
               Noriega   Carmona  Batteau
-----------------------------------------
Acres Homes     49.6%     12.6%    37.8%
UH/TSU          41.8%      7.0%    51.2%
Fifth Ward      50.1%     17.8%    32.1%
Sunnyside       55.2%     14.2%    30.6%
Hiram Clarke    49.9%     15.5%    34.6%

Anglo GOP Neighborhoods
               Noriega   Carmona  Batteau
-----------------------------------------
Clear Lake      49.4%     39.1%    11.5%
Galleria        44.1%     44.0%    11.9%
Kingwood        35.2%     48.5%    16.2%
Garden Oaks     57.4%     31.7%    10.9%
River Oaks      55.4%     32.6%    12.0%
Spring Branch   44.6%     40.4%    14.9%
Memorial        43.3%     45.0%    11.8%
Sharpstown      53.6%     30.6%    15.8%

Hispanic Neighborhoods
               Noriega   Carmona  Batteau
-----------------------------------------
East End        79.2%     16.5%     4.3%
Near Northside  60.9%     26.3%    12.8%
Hobby           59.2%     25.3%    15.5%

Multicultural Neighborhoods
               Noriega   Carmona  Batteau
-----------------------------------------
Alief           50.3%     27.1%    22.6%

Anglo Dem Neighborhoods
                Molnar    Price   Bradford
-----------------------------------------
Heights           9.8%    28.1%    62.2%
Meyerland         9.6%    22.8%    67.5%
Montrose         11.8%    24.1%    64.1%
Rice U            8.3%    21.7%    70.0%

African-American Neighborhoods
                Molnar    Price   Bradford
-----------------------------------------
Acres Homes       2.2%     7.3%    90.5%
UH/TSU            2.6%     8.5%    88.8%
Fifth Ward        4.5%     7.6%    87.9%
Sunnyside         2.1%     8.4%    89.5%
Hiram Clarke      5.5%    11.5%    83.0%

Anglo GOP Neighborhoods
                Molnar    Price   Bradford
-----------------------------------------
Clear Lake       12.9%    24.6%    62.5%
Galleria         10.2%    17.6%    72.2%
Kingwood         10.4%    27.5%    62.2%
Garden Oaks      10.6%    24.7%    64.6%
River Oaks        8.3%    17.9%    73.8%
Spring Branch    13.9%    26.8%    59.4%
Memorial         10.7%    20.3%    69.0%
Sharpstown       14.7%    30.4%    54.9%

Hispanic Neighborhoods
                Molnar    Price   Bradford
-----------------------------------------
East End         28.8%    29.1%    42.1%
Near Northside   27.4%    31.6%    41.0%
Hobby            15.7%    25.3%    59.0%

Multicultural Neighborhoods
                Molnar    Price   Bradford
-----------------------------------------
Alief            15.4%    28.2%    56.4%

Anglo Dem Neighborhoods
                Robinson  Jones  Christie   Ryan
------------------------------------------------
Heights          26.4%    37.9%   27.8%     7.8%
Meyerland        26.3%    23.3%   41.7%     8.6%
Montrose         23.4%    45.6%   22.6%     8.4%
Rice U           24.0%    31.5%   37.2%     7.3%

African-American Neighborhoods
                Robinson  Jones  Christie   Ryan
------------------------------------------------
Acres Homes      20.1%    76.8%    2.1%     1.0%
UH/TSU           15.0%    80.7%    2.8%     1.6%
Fifth Ward       17.5%    77.0%    2.7%     2.8%
Sunnyside        11.4%    83.7%    3.2%     1.7%
Hiram Clarke     16.9%    73.9%    5.2%     4.0%

Anglo GOP Neighborhoods
                Robinson  Jones  Christie   Ryan
------------------------------------------------
Clear Lake       20.0%    15.2%   54.5%    10.3%
Galleria         15.4%    11.9%   64.8%     7.9%
Kingwood         18.0%     8.8%   61.9%    11.2%
Garden Oaks      23.3%    21.8%   44.5%    10.3%
River Oaks       16.7%    15.6%   58.4%     9.3%
Spring Branch    16.7%    15.9%   58.7%     8.8%
Memorial         12.1%    11.8%   69.6%     6.5%
Sharpstown       21.9%    21.9%   43.1%    13.0%

Hispanic Neighborhoods
                Robinson  Jones  Christie   Ryan
------------------------------------------------
East End         30.2%    35.5%   20.7%    13.6%
Near Northside   27.7%    32.3%   26.1%    13.9%
Hobby            23.0%    37.3%   28.3%    11.4%

Multicultural Neighborhoods
                Robinson  Jones  Christie   Ryan
------------------------------------------------
Alief            17.4%    38.4%   32.6%    11.6%

Weekend Cache Clearance

A little light reading from the week that I don’t have the time to blog about …

» Chron: Feds offer new guidance on when to dismiss immigration cases

» NY Times: Hispanics Reviving Faded Towns on the Plains

» Wash. Post: Bolivian migrants ride out hard times

» NY Times: Disenfranchise No More

Mayoral Returns: ‘Hood by ‘Hood

A little bit of reminder on how these calculations are done: I’m not perfectly defining the entire neighborhood with each definition below. I am looking at about 5-7 precincts that cover the area of each neighborhood. In some cases, that may mean that 100% of the neighborhood is accounted for. In some, that may mean that 25% of the neighborhood is covered.

The comparison for the first round in 2009 can be found here. For the life of me, I’m not sure why I didn’t blog the results for the runoff, but I did manage to put them on the wiki.

The design is to get a feel for how an area voted, even if by a fairly large sample of the neighborhood’s precincts. With that, here’s how the Mayoral election shaped up.

Anglo Dem Neighborhoods

                Simms    Wilson  Herrera  Parker  O'Connor
----------------------------------------------------------
Heights          1.7%     6.8%    19.6%    62.5%    9.4%
Meyerland        1.3%     9.1%    10.0%    66.3%   13.4%
Montrose         0.9%     3.7%     6.1%    82.9%    6.4%
Rice U           0.9%     5.1%     6.0%    78.0%    9.9%

These were obviously packed into District C, which accounts for Parker’s strong showing there. No great surprises, but I continue to be a bit cautious of the Heights. Since the area is undergoing a fair amount of “re-honkification“, a growing rightwing vote shouldn’t be too much of a surprise.

African-American Neighborhoods

                Simms    Wilson  Herrera  Parker  O'Connor
----------------------------------------------------------
Acres Homes     19.7%     9.6%    20.7%    43.8%    6.2%
UH/TSU          15.8%     7.7%     8.8%    63.4%    4.3%
Fifth Ward      25.8%    13.3%    10.3%    44.8%    5.8%
Sunnyside       18.5%    12.1%    13.9%    45.0%   10.5%
Hiram Clarke    18.2%    12.9%    10.9%    52.2%    5.7%

This is the area where a conservative Afr-Am candidate (Simms) was designed to pull votes out of Parker’s column. What surprises me most here is the degree to which Wilson, Herrera, and O’Connor also peel away some votes. In sum, I think it’s a fair guess that Parker was narrowly below a majority in these and other Afr-Am precincts. Chalk this up to another datapoint for Afr-Am voters not being overly supportive of GLBT candidates. Whether it’s causal, coincidental, or otherwise, I’m not quite prepared to evaluate. But it’s interesting, to say the least. Coalition parties rely on cohesiveness and even the slightest of fissures are well worth noting.

Anglo GOP Neighborhoods

                Simms    Wilson  Herrera  Parker  O'Connor
----------------------------------------------------------
Clear Lake       1.5%    17.6%     9.8%    50.0%   21.1%
Galleria         1.1%    14.3%     9.5%    53.3%   21.8%
Kingwood         2.8%    15.7%    17.8%    31.9%   31.8%
Garden Oaks      1.9%    17.3%    16.6%    49.0%   15.3%
River Oaks       1.5%     9.3%     6.0%    68.6%   14.7%
Spring Branch    2.7%    15.7%    20.3%    40.6%   20.7%
Memorial         1.1%    14.0%    11.4%    47.8%   25.7%
Sharpstown       3.3%    16.1%    14.7%    49.7%   16.1%

This is an interesting bit of diversity in terms of how these areas vote in support of or in opposition to Annise Parker. It’s not terribly surprising that the older, more establishment-ish GOP areas are more supportive of an incumbent who’s governed pretty moderately in her first term. But this is a good snapshot of the divide within the GOP’s coalition.

Hispanic Neighborhoods

                Simms    Wilson  Herrera  Parker  O'Connor
----------------------------------------------------------
East End         2.2%     5.7%    39.0%    48.3%    4.7%
Near Northside   3.9%     9.6%    42.0%    36.5%    7.9%
Hobby            8.4%    15.7%    26.7%    35.7%   13.4%

This is a big problem and one that I don’t think has been made enough of for this election. Hispanic voters had an out-sized impact on this election. Unfortunately for Annise Parker, I don’t think we’ll see them celebrate the fact that she tanked in areas outside of the more politically connected East End neighborhoods. I’ve said it once and I’ll say it a million times more if needed: Hispanics do vote. And this time around, they almost voted strongly enough against a Mayor to send her into a runoff.

Multicultural Neighborhoods

                Simms    Wilson  Herrera  Parker  O'Connor
----------------------------------------------------------
Alief            7.3%    10.6%    13.0%    52.7%   16.3%

Ideally, I’d like to add a few more neighborhoods like this to my election analysis since it’s a growing group of voter clusters. Hiram Clarke, arguably, belongs in this group already. But all I take from this and Hiram Clarke combined is that the Mayor hit her baseline and that’s about all.

The grand sum of all this is something that I think was evident in the district-by-district analysis and some single-precinct spot-checking. The Mayor basically had about 50% of the vote for the taking and it was fairly even, geographically. She killed in District C (just as she did in 2009) and got whacked in Kingwood. The surprises this time around were the Hispanic vote and her drop-off in Spring Branch.

The Insider Coalition
In 2009, Annise Parker benefited in some areas because she was running against an Afr-Am candidate. I think the best way to really understand how the 2011 elections compare has already been stated by Kuff: this was essentially an election between Annise Parker and a generic “anybody but Annise” gaggle of candidates.

If you were to re-run the 2011 election season with the two most mentioned opponents who never seem to run for offices they tell reporters they’re looking at running for (just sayin’), I think it’s fair to assume that there would be a runoff. But whoever that runoff opponent turns out to be would get smoked something like 65-35. In other words, the pincer strategy doesn’t exist. Minorities that voted against Parker would vote for her if the opponent were Paul Bettencourt. GOP voters that voted against her this time would flock to her against Ben Hall in much the same way they did against Gene Locke.

That’s not to say that Annise is invincible at somewhere around 50-55% of the vote. Things can change for good or bad during her next term. But there definitely seems to be an interesting pattern of how a group of voters can hold the balance between a coalesced Afr-Am vote and a GOP-leaning vote that always seems possible to turn out in far greater numbers. The fact that those two groups aren’t able to join together is the biggest thing keeping the famous “Greanias Line” as a sustainable floor of support for Inner-Loop Anglo voters and politically connected/attentive minority voters as opposed to a ceiling that once prevented them from electoral success. How that formula holds up after Parker’s tenure should be pretty interesting to watch for.

Election ’11: Mapping the At Large 2 Results

Here’s the simplest view of the At Large 2 race that I can do for the time being. This is basically a heat map for the top three candidates. If I wanted to be thorough, I could do another with combined Burks/Shorter vote and another with combined Perez/Fraga vote. Those would amplify the showings for more demographic-based voting. But other than show the more extreme contours of where any the Afr-Am vote is likely to be for Andew Burks in the runoff, I’m not sure that they’re necessary for now. One obvious point about Kristi’s base of support is that it tracks almost identically with House District 133, where she’s been on the ballot three times.

I may get around to mapping these out by order of finish, which should outline where I think Kristi has a good opportunity for winning in much the same way that Annise Parker’s 2009 map against Gene Locke’s order of finish showed her path to victory. The obvious catch with this view, however, is the same thing that gives Jones her opportunity for AL5 … Afr-Am precincts will see a higher percentage of vote return to the polls for runoffs than the precincts Kristi will win. That levels the playing field somewhat, but I’d still say that Kristi starts off with more advantages.

The color-coding is obviously different for this map since nobody really got 75% of the vote anywhere. Also, I kept the color-coding the same for three different candidates across each map. If there’s any confusion, drop a comment and let me know.

Kristi Thibaut (default) – Andrew Burks – Elizabeth Perez

full page – Google Earth

Color-coding:
dark blue – 25% or more for candidate
blue – 20-25% for candidate
light blue – 15-20% for candidate
purple – 10-15% for candidate
pink – 5-10% for candidate
red – 0-5% for candidate