Primary Mapping: GOP Senate
Another big, important contest here to review. Obviously, the US Senate contest would need a runoff to decide on the winner, the outcome in May was enough of a two-person race to see some patterns at this point. The final outcome in May, just to refresh, was as follows:
David Dewhurst – 45.9%
Ted Cruz – 43.6%
Tom Leppert – 5.8%
Everyone Else – 4.7%
I basically broke the precinct returns into Dewhurst, Cruz, and Other. The only identifiable blip for where “Other” broke 15% was in Pct 529 in Tomball. That was due to a highly localized boomlet of Glenn Addison voters showing up to the tune of 7.1% there. That compares to his 1.1% showing countywide. I’d love to hear that precinct’s story. But even there, Dewhurst pulled 47% to Cruz’s 38%.
UPDATE: After a little bit of poking around other Tomball precincts, I notice that three others gave Addison a bigger-than-normal share: 127, 726, and 1036. The results were enough in those four boxes to give Addison 7.4% of the vote in Tomball. Addison was a trustee for the Magnolia School Board before resigning to run. Who knows … maybe that good of a showing in his home turf will translate to some other future run for office.
In the case of this map, I opted to color-code it by the winner of the ultimate victory – Cruz – rather than the candidate that led the pack in May – Dewhurst. So dark-red = Cruz; light-red = Dewhurst
I think the most interesting map to compare this to is the Chang/Detamore map for County Court 2. In both cases, the establishment candidates win a good share of everything from River Oaks to the westside/Memorial and even more of the southwest area. Dewhurst appears to have polled better in the Kingwood/Clear Lake areas. A neighborhood-by-neighborhood analysis might be instructive here, so I’ll put it somewhere on my to-do list. In particular, I think it would be interesting to see how both the overall map and the ‘hood number-crunching look in this race compared to the final Runoff outcome.
Feel free to poke and prod this map and let me know of any further analysis that you think might be warranted here.
Last one for today. District races should be next. I’ll have to do some creative coding to show the Constable Precinct 1 race in a meaningful way.