State of the Race: One Week Out

My final call …

I don’t like to wuss out by calling three states “tossups” (NH, VA, CO), but the fact that Obama losing all three wouldn’t impact his ability to win gives me an out in this case. In the case of NH, I belive it’s the safest for Obama, but I’m suspicious that if polling has failed to detect a few points worth of votes that may exist for Romney due to the economy, then the state neighboring where Romney served as Governor might be the first canary in that coal mine. Virginia and Colorado are legitimately more narrow in polling ranges. If forced to pick, I’d probably throw VA to Romney and CO to Obama. That would put my “no tossup” math at 290-248 Obama.

The changes in 538’s data since the last check-in …

Eastern Time Zone            OCTOBER 30                 OCTOBER 17
Pennsylvania    [+0.2]  51.9 - 47.0 (Obama +4.9)   51.8 - 47.1 (Obama +4.7)   
Virginia        [+0.8]  50.0 - 49.4 (Obama +0.6)   49.5 - 49.7 (Obama -0.2)   
North Carolina  [+1.1]  48.3 - 51.1 (Obama -2.8)   47.7 - 51.6 (Obama -3.9)   
New Hampshire   [-0.1]  50.8 - 48.5 (Obama +2.3)   50.8 - 48.4 (Obama +2.4)   
Florida         [+0.4]  49.1 - 50.3 (Obama -1.2)   48.9 - 50.5 (Obama -1.6)   
Ohio            [+0.2]  50.5 - 48.4 (Obama +2.1)   50.3 - 48.4 (Obama +1.9)   

Central Time Zone            OCTOBER 30                 OCTOBER 17
Wisconsin       [+1.0]  51.6 - 47.8 (Obama +3.8)   51.1 - 48.3 (Obama +2.8)
Iowa            [+0.8]  50.7 - 48.5 (Obama +2.2)   50.2 - 48.8 (Obama +1.4)

Mountain Time Zone           OCTOBER 30                 OCTOBER 17
Colorado        [+0.5]  49.8 - 49.2 (Obama +0.6)   49.5 - 49.4 (Obama +0.1) 
Nevada          [+1.1]  51.0 - 48.1 (Obama +2.9)   50.3 - 48.5 (Obama +1.8) 

If Obama wins Virginia, big night for Dems. If Obama pulls off an upset in Florida, game over. If Romney wins New Hampshire, cross your fingers and keep a close eye on Ohio for the rest of the night.

I’ll be focused on a much smaller speck of the map for this election. So mapping and poring over national data will wait quite a bit longer on my part.

A few other final, somewhat fearless predictions:

– TX-14: Lampson vs Weber … I think you can get away with just watching Jefferson County on this one. If Lampson passes the 60% hurdle, and there aren’t any wild turnout differences from years’ past, he can win this one. Obama won the county with 51% in 2008. Lampson, again, won 67% in 2004 – his last time to run there. If the world of Jefferson County – today – still has enough swing voters for Lampson, then there’ll be something good to be said about what Democrats in Texas accomplished.

– TX-23: Gallego vs Canseco … I have no feel for this one, but expect it to be as competitive as the district ever was from 2006 on. Just based on Gallego’s appeal outside of Bexar County, I’m optimistic about him pulling off the win. That should post the post-E-Day newsies enough to say something nice about Democrats in the state.

– SD10: Davis vs Shelton … I’ve been skeptical about Davis’ odds in a status quo district. But she’s run about as well as I can see from my distant corner of the state. Obviously, this one has a big impact on what legislation comes out of the Senate during the 2013 session in Austin. So I’ll hope beyond hope that Davis is successful.

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