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5Feb/140

2008-12 CVAP Majority Map of DFW Metroplex

As below, so above. This time, I've mapped out the Citizen Voting Age Population majorities in the Metroplex area. For the sake of Google's API restrictions, the embedded map only shows Dallas and Tarrant counties. But the Google Earth file will have Collin and Denton thrown in.

As always, the color coding is as follows:
- Red - Anglo majority
- Black - African-American majority
- Brown - Hispanic majority
- Green - Asian majority
- Yellow - Multicultural (no majority)


full pageGoogle Earth file

And below are the individual county counts from the American Community Survey. Of primary interest to me in this is the change from the 2005-09 ACS to the more recent 2008-12 ACS. I'm guessing I might have missed the tipping point by not looking at Dallas County's 2006-10 or 2007-11 counts. But for what it's worth, Dallas County is currently a majority-minority CVAP county. Shifts like that are generally more telling in terms of the political impact than the more publicly notable instances of Total Population shifting to majority-minority. And it's worth noting that Dallas County's functional shift to a fully Democratic county predates the CVAP shift by a few years.

Anyways, numbers and whatnot ...

Dallas County:
» 0.8% Growth in Total Pop (2010 Census vs 2008-12 ACS)
» 1.8% Growth in CVAP (2005-09 ACS vs 2008-12 ACS)

             TOTAL                VAP         |   CVAP-12            CVAP-09
----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------
Total    2,379,215          1,723,795         | 1,360,390          1,336,305
----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------
Anglo      792,215 (33.3%)    663,395 (38.5%) |   649,060 (47.7%)    686,654 (51.4%)
Hispanic   908,200 (38.2%)    572,035 (33.2%) |   277,395 (20.4%)    256,185 (19.2%)
Afr-Am     516,670 (21.7%)    369,820 (21.5%) |   356,115 (26.2%)    327,939 (24.5%)
Asian      122,965  (5.2%)     93,980  (5.5%) |    54,010  (4.0%)     44,992  (3.4%)

Tarrant County:
» 0.3% Growth in Total Pop (2010 Census vs 2008-12 ACS)
» 2.5% Growth in CVAP (2005-09 ACS vs 2008-12 ACS)

             TOTAL                VAP         |   CVAP-12            CVAP-09
----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------
Total    1,814,665          1,308,680         | 1,141,750          1,063,145
----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------
Anglo      942,305 (51.9%)    741,275 (56.6%) |   730,125 (63.9%)    712,000 (67.0%)
Hispanic   484,240 (26.7%)    300,040 (22.9%) |   176,280 (15.4%)    148,758 (14.0%)
Afr-Am     266,170 (14.7%)    183,160 (14.0%) |   173,510 (15.2%)    151,795 (14.3%)
Asian       84,485  (4.7%)     63,000  (4.8%) |    42,105  (3.7%)     33,474  (3.2%)

Collin County:
» 0.8% Growth in Total Pop (2010 Census vs 2008-12 ACS)
» 3.3% Growth in CVAP (2005-09 ACS vs 2008-12 ACS)

             TOTAL                VAP         |   CVAP-12            CVAP-09
----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------
Total      788,580            564,330         |   496,230            459,505
----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------
Anglo      498,480 (63.2%)    372,840 (66.1%) |   363,715 (73.3%)    352,265 (76.7%)
Hispanic   116,000 (14.7%)     73,215 (13.0%) |    43,580  (8.8%)     36,880  (8.0%)
Afr-Am      65,390  (8.3%)     45,500  (8.1%) |    41,225  (8.3%)     33,595  (7.3%)
Asian       90,110 (11.4%)     63,425 (11.2%) |    39,225  (7.9%)     29,675  (6.5%)

Denton County:
» 0.8% Growth in Total Pop (2010 Census vs 2008-12 ACS)
» 4.0% Growth in CVAP (2005-09 ACS vs 2008-12 ACS)

             TOTAL                VAP         |   CVAP-12            CVAP-09
----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------
Total      667,935            485,050         |   433,850            397,320
----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------
Anglo      431,120 (64.5%)    327,450 (67.5%) |   321,885 (74.2%)    309,500 (77.9%)
Hispanic   121,560 (18.2%)     76,700 (15.8%) |    46,205 (10.6%)     36,715  (9.2%)
Afr-Am      53,410  (8.0%)     38,765  (8.0%) |    36,925  (8.5%)     30,280  (7.6%)
Asian       44,050  (6.6%)     32,195  (6.6%) |    19,180  (4.4%)     13,325  (3.4%)

I also added a calculation to track the percentage change in Total Population and CVAP. It's worth noting that these numbers aren't expected to be comparable to the CVAP change mentioned above. In the case of the Total Pop change, it's comparing the full 2010 Census to the current 2008-12 ACS.

One important factor to consider for the Total Pop change is that this year's ACS has 2010 as it's midpoint. So, if you assume (as I do not) that the ACS were to have a straightline average over 5 years and you also assume (as I again, do not) that the ACS is a near-perfect estimation process, then the ACS Total Pop counts would be frighteningly similar to the actual Census number. The numbers are close, as expected. But they seem to be within a range of what I'd expect to see with some of the imperfect estimation process built into the ACS data.

The ACS CVAP comparison number is a bit more interesting to me since it reflects a purer four years worth of change and might even begin to color some expectation of what the next decade population growth counts might look like. There's obviously a long way to go, but I think the 20% growth we saw over the last decade's Census counts is going to be out of reach given the current pace of CVAP growth. Of course, I'm also factoring in the idea that non-citizen immigration isn't hollowing out the Total Population counts as much as it did last decade. But who among us isn't doing the same!

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