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6Jun/120

HD137 Mapped Out: Primary-Style

The home district, mapped out in gawdy, politically meaningless colors to designate what kind of showing each candidate had. I don't hide the fact that I work for one of those candidates (Gene Wu), so it should come as no surprise that a few points on the map are a bit Wu-centric in their interpretation. Basically, the colors go Blue for Wu; Green for Smith; and Orange for Madden. Winkler didn't carry any precincts. Darker shades represent majorities. Medium shades denote 40% and above. Lighter shades denote smaller pluralities.


You can click it to big it. OR, for a non-static version, here's the link.

In particular regard to some of the quirks here:

- Pct 256 (SW of Bellaire/Hillcroft): Madden won it by four votes. But both Madden and Wu got over 40% there. With all due apologies to Team Madden, I choose to highlight it as I do all the other 40+ precincts for Gene (medium blue).

- Pct 835 (the white box along Bellaire): it was a four-way tie with 1 vote each. I treated it the same way I treated Pct 546 to the north, which had no votes.

- Pct 432 (green box on the NE corner): Both Madden and Smith were above 30%. I treated it like a Smith plurality. Again, apologies to Team Madden. Similar to the above, it was a low-turnout box. So nailing a particular color treatment (or dual-color shading) wasn't a priority for me. Looking at what things mean for the runoff ... a bit more.

- Pct 421 (the light blue box that hooks into Sharpstown from the Westpark toll road): it was a low-turnout box that went 3 votes for Wu and 3 votes for Smith. I opted to treat it like a Wu plurality.

If you spot other oddities in the map's treatment, pat yourself on the back. I'm busy trying to win an election here. This'll likely be the last of the contest you hear out of me until August. The results are public. But how we get to the results are proprietary 😉

18Jan/121

Let the Campaign Filings Begin

Its that time again ... campaign season. The first filing period of the year has now passed and the fundraising email are already flooding the inboxes. Here's a gaggle of Houston-area contests that may or may not happen, but have some really real money to report ...

HD136 ... Mike Schofield (R) and Ann Witt (R) are the only two showing money so far, but I'm sure Pam Holm (R) can put together quickly in order to be competitive. Schofield has won the Bob & Doylene Primary, picking up $10,000 from the couple. If Ann Witt hasn't set the record for State Rep spending in this cycle, I'll be stunned: $85k spent, roughly $30k of it on consultants and staff. Witt has a record of starting early - she had yard signs placed at polling places for the 2003 City election for her 2004 primary in HD137. But still. That's a lot of money to drop when few people are paying attention to a race that may or may not ever happen. Mano DeAyala (R) hasn't filed anything, but I don't think anyone's expecting much out of that campaign.

HD137 ... Gene Wu (D) leads the pack with over $70k on hand. Jamaal Smith (D) and Sarah Winkler (D) have $2,500 and $1,378 respectively. No report spotted yet for Joe Madden (D) or M.J. Khan (R). So far, the bulk of the spending in this contest is for filing fees. Probably a smart move considering that the race may or may not ever happen. For whatever its worth in the world, outgoing State Rep. Scott Hochberg filed a report with $24k on hand. On a minor note of full disclosure: our shop is working with Gene Wu.

HD144 ... Only Mary Ann Perez (D) has a report filed with dollar amounts. Kevin Risner (D) has a report filed, but it's all zeros. And handwritten. That's some old-school politicking. Nothing yet from Ornaldo Ybarra (D). Our shop doesn't have a dog in this race, but I'm curious to see how well Ybarra does. His 2009 win for a Pasadena City Council district over an Anglo incumbent was a great signal on the demographic change underway in that part of the county. I'd be lying if I said I didn't want him to do well in this race. Incumbent Ken Legler (R) doesn't have a report filed yet, but had over $65k on hand as of June 30, 2011. Even if the San Antonio version of the State Rep map is the one we run on, that version of the district is close enough to competitive where Legler might be able to make it competitive. It might be less so in a Presidential year, but a close contest followed by a rematch in 2014 could be something to watch if the San Antonio version is the one in play.

HD26 ... Only Vy Nguyen (D) has a report with money in it: just over $2k. Sonal Bhuchar (R) has filed a report, but with no money. From what I'm told, she should have plenty when it's all said and done. No reports by Rick Miller (R) or Jacquie Chaumette (R). No disclosure on this one, but I've met Vy and there's plenty good reason to be excited for her candidacy, particularly if the San Antonio version of the district is the one she's running in. One particular note on Vy's report is a $200 donation from Houston City Council Member Al Hoang.

The filings for Harris County offices are also underway. Those should be posted later today. Hopefully, we'll see some interesting things in contested primaries in the District Attorney race as well as the Precinct 1 Constable race.

   

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