The 2012 Primary G-Slate
In what negligible amount of spare time I have before May 29th, here’s my biennial check-in on where my personal preferences stand for some of the contested primaries on my ballot. Take ‘em for whatever they’re worth to you.
State Representative, District 137: Gene Wu
Easily the biggest one of importance to me since I’m still drawn in District 137. Also due to the fact that, professionally, I’m busting a hump or two trying to get the guy elected. I don’t think its my style to be half-in for an open seat in my neighborhood. Much of the rationale here is similar to that I used for supporting Mike Laster in his two most recent runs for City Council: having a representative who’s been involved in the neighborhood issues means a lot to an area typically overlooked. And much like the most recent race for Houston’s District J, there’s not a bad candidate running. But just like that year, there is only one clear choice if you want someone who’s dealt with the area on a day-to-day basis.
Dem. Party Chair: Lane Lewis
I’m old enough to remember the Claude Jones years. Enough. Lane may certainly be a departure in style and background from the previous run of party chairs we’ve had. We’ll find out soon enough whether that’s a good or bad thing. But there’s no argument over the fact that the opposing candidate in this race would be another shot in the foot that I don’t think we have the luxury of affording.
U.S. Representative, District 7: James Cargas
After doing a small amount of work on the Skelly campaign in 2008, its hard to see how anyone else steps up to the plate with money, resume, background, or whatever and improves the odds. But there are three candidates up for this one and I’ll take a semi-respectable showing for whatever trouble its worth to run everywhere.
State Board of Education, District 6: Tracy Jensen
Redistricting happened a hundred years ago, right? I’ve long since forgotten what the math looked like in the new 6th. However long the odds are, though, its still worth putting the best showing possible against Terri Leo.
State District Judge, 215th: Steven Kirkland
Funny thing is, I don’t have any qualms with the attorney who’s gunning for Kirkland. And under normal circumstances, I suspect that Elaine Palmer would have far better political advice than she’s received this time around. Maybe she would have even payed attention to it long enough to not let anyone know she’s as nutty as she’s shown. But the secret’s out now. So I think I’ll stick with the guy who’s there now.
District Attorney: Zack Fertitta
I don’t have any major hangups with voting for Pat Lykos if the loony Dem wins this race. But Zack’s a good candidate with a good resume for the job. I hope people are paying attention to this one.
Sheriff: Adrian Garcia
Seriously? … why would anyone challenge Garcia in the primary? For whatever reason, they are. So my stamp is down with the guy I lifted a finger to help back in 2008. He’s pretty dang good. So I think I’ll keep him as my Sheriff.
County School Trustee, Pos. 3: Diane Trautman
I can’t say that this is as strong an endorsement or need to prevent some whackjob from being on my ballot in November. But I think Diane’s just the right one based on the strength of her resume.
I still have no idea what to even call for a coin toss on some contested primaries for County Commissioner (vs. Radack) and Constable (vs Camus). Both are going to be for nominees that have no chance in an area drawn a bit better for the GOP. Haven’t met any of the candidates, so I can’t really judge from anything else I’ve seen.
A few races elsewhere that I don’t have any kind of say in …
State Representative, District 144: Ornaldo Ybarra
Admittedly, I’ll be shocked if he wins. The money and organizational strength tends to be behind Mary Ann Perez. But I’ve long since believed that Ybarra is a great story for the district since it would be great to see the Hispanic community outside of Houston show some strength. Its just a matter of time.
State Representative, District 146: Borris Miles
Here’s hoping the rubber match ends here. Still prefer having him as my next-door-neighbor State Rep. There doesn’t seem to be any serious money behind Al Edwards this time. And they haven’t been successful at just making up sh*% for the 10pm news to air as an unpaid attack ad on Borris. Yeah, I still remember that, KHOU.
State Representative, District 93: Roger Fisher
This’d be a district that covers my old ‘hood in Tarrant County. The incumbent, Todd Smith, is looking to move up to the State Senate. This one’s a GOP district and normally, I’d care incredibly little. But since the exiting Smith is a Trinity High grad, I feel a little compelled to root on the lone contestant for the open seat that happens to be a fellow alum. It helps that Fisher has also earned the endorsement of Parent PAC. So who knows, maybe he’ll follow in the tradition of the pre-2010 Todd Smith.
Anything other than a yawner of a U.S. Senate primary that I’m overlooking?
Pre-Early Vote Aggrepost for the Week
Still busy with peak campaign season here. A couple of items from the ever-diminishing reading list may have to wait until June. But, as luck would have it, someone goes and does something big in the news while I’m slaving away. Here’s a few tidbits to bide time with …
» Wash. Post: For Obama, gay marriage stance born of a long evolution
» NY Times: Obama Campaign Pushes the Issue of Gay Marriage
» TNR: Why Gay Rights May Be President Obama’s Biggest Legacy (Jon Rauch)
» TNR: Stop Worrying: There’s No Political Downside to Backing Gay Marriage (Ruy Teixeira)
» TNR: It’s Official, Obama’s Trying to Win the West—Not Ohio (William Galston)
» Gawker: Barack Obama’s Bulls#!t Gay Marriage Announcement
» Andrew Sullivan: Obama Lets Go Of Fear
» Nate Silver: Gay Marriage and the Democratic Base
As if I needed another reminder that there are still different wings of the Democratic Party. I tend to think Obama’s precise statement gives him enough wiggle room to essentially say “I support it, but I’m not going to do anything about it.” It’s just a personal conviction, after all. The comment doesn’t do anything to suggest that 2016 is a completely different animal. Cuomo, O’Malley and others will be running with the figurative courage of their convictions, having passed and signed bills on the issue that Obama won’t do anything about.
What it means for the Democratic Party coalition … we’ll see. I’m not optimistic about it, but I don’t see it as completely fatal, either. Maybe African-American voters maintain their enthusiasm for Obama this November. But for a white nominee in 2016? I’m doubtful. The fact that there exists yawning “age gap” on the issue suggests to me that any fracturing doesn’t occur along the lines of abortion, where broader cultural divides exist within age groups and other constituency groups. How the GOP goes after the issue both this election and in 2016 will probably give much better indicators on how it plays out over the next 20-30 years. For now, all eyes on Ohio and Pennsylvania.
I tend to believe the move also speeds up the already-underway shift of the Democratic Party more toward the big urban counties than it does to broaden its reach. With that in mind, I did do a modicum of research on North Carolina’s most recent Prop 1, double-outlawing gay marriage there. While the proposition lost handily across the state, I wanted to see what happened in a big urban/suburban county. Here’s a comparison of Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) with Prop One on the left and Obama/McCain on the right (click it to big it):
There are some obvious areas where Obama won support in the county yet the vote was in support of Prop One. But there seem to be even more areas where McCain and Prop One both won. So it may not be just the Democrats that “evolve” on the issue.
» CNN: In statement, Lugar defends campaign while criticizing partisan environment
Cillizza’s rejoinder is probably worth reading alongside of Lugar’s own thoughts, as is Ezra Klein’s note on Lugar’s centrist street cred.
Generally speaking, I liked Lugar. That’s not the same as agreeing with any substantial number of his votes. But, to the extent that he was viewed as a “moderate”, it seems to be more rooted in his style rather than his politics. The fact that Lugar wasn’t a name-calling, flame-thrower ideologue who does what a 70-yr old Senator from Kentucky (himself sometimes at odds with the N-C/F-T/I wing of today’s GOP) tells them to do.
» Chron: Texas A&M tabs UH’s Rhoades as candidate for AD position
I have to admit that I have a hard time seeing this. Rhoads strikes me as a one-trick pony AD, a guy who comes in and oversees new stadium projects. I have a hard time seeing him as a successful SEC AD. But what do I know about being AD? I’m less crazy about the idea of UH’s AD gig once more becoming a revolving door. For all the talk about a football coach that could possibly have a tenure longer than 4 or 5 years, an AD with an average timestamp of three years on his past two gigs seems a bit out of place.
Brunch Aggrepost for Campaign Season
Still slaving away. Unfortunately, there’s a few media pieces that are really interesting that it looks like I’ll just have to wave at as they pass by. Some of these a now a little dated, so no guarantees that this will be a worthwhile aggregate of fresh hot links that you haven’t already read about elsewhere.
» Sharpstown’s problem? Its image, civic leaders say
Since much of my time these days is in an effort to get a new State Rep elected in my home district, this is a welcome read. I honestly think it takes a bit more than this one look at this sliver of southwest Houston to understand it more fully. But it’s something. And its definitely good to see some meaningful context added to the negative reputation around Sharpstown in particular. Our newly minted Council Member is quoted, as is the latest president of the Sharpstown Civic Association, Peter Acquaro. Stace riffs on the article over at his blog.
One point that I’ll add is that, in slicing and dicing data and walk lists for a political campaign, I’ve had to go over the area with an entirely more granular perspective than I’ve done previously. I was a bit surprised to see a few developments going up in District 137 (a few in Sharpstown and a few on the eastern border, closer to Bellaire and the Galleria). These were townhomes and/or condos selling and/or valued in the $350k-500k ballpark. In the case of the Sharpstown development, these were developments surrounded by a mix of apartments ranging anywhere from “pretty decent” to “maybe not.” To be sure, there were some inevitable foreclosures and some speculative buying of multiple properties. But my takeaway is there are at least people who are betting a pretty penny on a turnaround. That’s a lot more than just boosterism.
» Let’s just say it: The Republicans are the problem. (Thomas E. Mann and Norman J. Ornstein)
Honesty for ya. It sure beats the silly “Politifact” approach to determining truths among political claims because the writers and editors of the original stories with those claims are too timid to call a lie a lie.
» Demographics No Longer Destiny for Democrats (Forrest Wilder)
I’m not exactly won over by Wilder as a demographic anthropologist. Sure, he’s got the degree (from UT, however). But I’ll take my “white kid from the ‘hood” cred over his “white kid from the ‘burbs” non-cred in terms of our comparative ability to wrap our minds around the problem … however that’s defined. Be that as it may, he’s the one with the writing gig at the Texas Observer. So the debate that ensues from this article is worth a read.
For all of that, however, I don’t disagree with part of his initial conclusion:
The party recently launched The Promesa Project, an effort to get young Latinos to “promise” to act as “Democratic messengers to their families and social networks,” according to the project’s website. The party is investing $1 million in it. Better than nothing. Yet Promesa, modeled on the “Great Schlep,” a 2008 initiative deployed in Florida to get young Jews to convince their grandparents to vote for Obama, is only a complement, not a substitute, to the dull, block-by-block work needed to enfranchise Latinos. Until that happens, Texas Democrats run the risk of becoming even more irrelevant.
The relevance of any party structure – D or R – is completely worth discussing. I tend to lean toward the increasing irrelevance of both. That’s not going so far as to say there isn’t a role for them. And in the case of the party of my personal preference, I think launching something like Promesa is in line with what they should do. Where Wilder is right is that it is a complement. But I’m biased since I’ve been pushing out blockwalkers for the past several weeks to engage voters in southwest Houston about voting for a quality candidate.
I’m not sure that TDP is of the opinion that they are eliminating the need for such work. Especially since they support the very tool that I’m using to organize with (again, the exact sort of thing that a party should do). In the end, I think its the discussion of relevance that’s irrelevant. Connectivity between a constituency and a political party has less to do with what either party does or says via their spokesfolks or twitter managers and more to do with the effectiveness and resonance that individual candidates on the ballot do to engage those constituencies. But I guess an esoteric argument like that doesn’t create as much friction as simply saying something like “the party is becoming irrelevant” as if there were anything that one person or an improved facebook page could do to reverse America’s growing detachment from pre-existing definitions of political structure.
» My wasted day on Capitol Hill (Vivek Wadhwa)
In short: what he said. In particular:
Government leaders — at least some of those present — actually seemed to believe they could, through legislation and spending, increase entrepreneurship and innovation. They asked questions such as: What legislation can we enact to build innovation ecosystems, facilitate mentorship, and teach entrepreneurship? They didn’t seem to understand that these are things entrepreneurs do—not governments.
Governments routinely build science parks, provide subsidies to chosen industries and set up investment funds — all in an effort to spark economic growth. But hardly any of these efforts bear fruit.
Not So Heavy Rotation
Since the blogging is slowing down due to some campaign-related workload, I think it’s an opportune moment for a navel-gazing look at my MP3 playlist. For one, it’s a better change of pace to go from campaign work to “anything but politics” than it is to riff off of the news of the weird. Besides, its never short of amusing to revisit these things a year or two later to see what on earth I was listening to. For you normals out there, fear not … there’s not an abundance of Stryper, Krokus, or Yngwie Malmsteen on here.
With that, here’s what’s spinning in my phone …
1. I Do (Paul Gilbert)
I believe this is a Japanese bonus track off of Gilbert’s first solo album. So I never had the chance to listen to this 1000 times in a row back when I picked up the CD (that’s what we called MP3s back then, kids). Considering how much I enjoyed where Gilbert was artistically back in this period, I’m playing the heck out of this one for good reason. The guy seemed to have left Mr. Big with a terrific understanding of pop sensibility and how to combine it with having a load of fun on guitar. Here’s the video to prove it in this case.
2. Do You Love Me (Paul Stanley)
I never got into the original recorded version of this tune for one simple reason: I had only two KISS albums as a child: Alive and Alive II. That was my most devious plot to trick my parents who agreed to buy me two albums for a birthday present. This song didn’t make the cut of Alive II. I probably heard it while playing a friend’s copy of Destroyer from time to time. But the song really never took until the Unplugged Reunion. As far as a full-bore electric version of the tune, I have to confess that the Starman’s solo, live rendition is pretty solid.
3. Michelle Don’t Live Here No More (Last Autumn’s Dream)
Why Mikael Erlandsson isn’t widely known outside of Europe is a mystery to me. This is off of a relatively recent release of one of his projects. If you’re a fan of anything remotely AOR or melodic rock, check it out. If you like what you here, there’s also some solo material that he’s done, as well as another band project called Salute … which is harder to find outside of the export market.
4. Hands Tied (Scandal)
Hard for me to believe this was on the same album (that’s what we called CDs back then, kids) as “The Warrior.” But the love affair with this song is borne of my need to listen ahead to the next artist I plan on covering before I record the one I’m working on now. Benatar’s “Hit Me With Your Best Shot” will get a few tracks tonight. A certain, obvious Scandal tune is planned after that. Here’s hoping I mess up neither of them.
5. The World We Live In (MacAlpine)
This is just me, digging up some obscure 90s AOR metal that I’ve not listened to in ages. MacAlpine refers to erstwhile shred guitar player, Tony MacAlpine, spending some bucks trying to join in on the supergroup phenomenon that gave us Mr. Big, Damn Yankees, Bad English, and to a lesser extent: House of Lords. I think its a shame that Tony Mac never made it with this project beyond the first release (that’s what we called it when you could buy either a CD, album or cassette, kids). The band came through Houston on tour. I remember thinking MacAlpine was a bit sloppier than the other shred guys I caught back then (for the record, Vinnie Moore was spot on with his material). Oh, and the singer made me shout out the chorus to a cover of Argent’s “Hold Your Head Up” because I wasn’t there to give a rat’s behind about the singer. I don’t remember the moment really being the hit of the show.
6. Sing Over Me (Jonathan Salas)
Unknown kid out of the Katy area that opened for Stryper the last time they played the House of Blues. He deserves to be bigger than he is. He’s still a kid, so there’s this thing called twitter that he uses more than anything else. You’d be treating yourself right if you picked up his CDs.
7. Loved By You (Lincoln Brewster)
My weekly routine, when done properly, usually involves switching over to some churchy tunes on Friday to get amped up for Saturday and otherwise not merely rush through my Friday like a workaholic of some sort. Brewster’s about as good as they get for an easy-going, centering sorta song. There’s certainly other material of his that shows off the guitar a bit more. For whatever reason, though, I usually like his slower stuff. The irony is that my palate is in so much need of a change of pace when I leave church on Saturdays that I go straight to heavy metal afterwards.
8. Song of the Saints (Page CXVI)
An unfortunately little-known band that a few hipster types are tuned into. They make their way to my church every so often and they’re usually a welcome treat. What they do with classic hymns is pretty amazing. This is easily my favorite tune of theirs, but there’s a tighter bundle of tunes vying for second place. One of the other things I love about them is that they sell instrumental backing tracks for all of their releases. The music is a bit out of my own stylistic preference, but I’m still holding out hope to do something with my guitar over the backing track of this one.
9. Justice Will Roll Down (Sandra McCracken)
McCracken is the wife of one of my faves: Derek Webb. I’ve tried to get into her tunes a number of times, to no avail. Then she came out with a “reworked hymns” project that included this and a few others that I fell in love with. The band at church has put this into the worship setlist a few weeks in a row, which helps remind me to re-insert this into heavy rotation.
10. Shadows of the Night (Pat Benatar)
And this is me, fading out of my Benatar phase. If tonight’s recording session goes halfway well (which, for me, translates to “incredibly well”), I think its time to focus on playing some Scandal and then get into the more guitar-heavy tunes I’ve planned to cover. That aside, Neil Giraldo has never gotten his due as one of the best guitar players of the 80s. I’m convinced that part of the reason for taking so long to record “Hit Me With Your Best Shot” is because I really wanted to spend some time learning a few elements of Giraldo’s style that occur outside of that song.
So that’s what’s on my earbuds this past week. If there’s anything similar to this sorta material that you think might be new to me, feel free to let me know.
2012 Primary Early Vote Locations for Harris County
We got us some new locations, also …
Days and hours are as follows:
Early Voting Hours of Operation
May 14th – May 18th: 8:00 a.m. – 4:30 p.m.
May 19th: 7:00 a.m. – 7:00 p.m.
May 20th: 1:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m.
May 21th – May 25th: 7:00 a.m. – 7:00 p.m.
Demographic Evolution, Continued
» NY Times: In Years Since the Riots, a Changed Complexion in South Central
» Guernica: South L.A., Twenty Years Later
Two good reads from two different vantage points of demographics and the LA riots of 1992. Spare time comes at a bit more of a premium with only 5 weeks left until a Primary election is conducted. But these were worth a read, along with a re-read of an older link on Compton’s Latino voters as well as another link about some demographic evolution in NYC.
UPDATE: … and, of course, the 2010 demographics of Los Angeles and Orange Counties was mapped out here. That doesn’t give you a sense of the degree of change from 1992, but its still a helpful visual. Not sure what millenium I’ll get around to a 1980-to-2010 time series of those counties, but I don’t doubt that it would be interesting to see.
How Not to Run a Campaign
» Chron: A little mystery over primary opposition to judge (Patricia Kilday Hart)
I’m a little late to this party, but one thing jumped out at me during the most recent kerfuffle over Elaine Palmer’s primary challenge to sitting Democratic judge, Steve Kirkland. PKH covers the internecine aspect of the battle, which is bad enough. A ride through the Third Ward over the weekend for the Senate District convention also saw a number of “empty lot” signs of Palmer’s posted on a lot of places where there were no voters to be had. At best, that’s just funny. Besides, one location had both Palmer’s and Kirkland’s signs next to each other.
But some of the other communication that Palmer has done has been worth noting, also. Below the fold is an email from around 3/12. In it, you get pictures of a couple that were “Meet & Greet” hosts as well as another of “Supporters.” The problem with this is that the “supporters” aren’t really supporters. The photo is a stock photo that anyone can buy for about a buck or two. You can see the stock photo of one of the couples in this email here.
And every other name mentioned in the email as a supporter or host doesn’t turn up as a registered voter in Harris County.
A few days after that, the Palmer campaign sent a similar email with the following prayer included in it (emphasis mine):
Heavenly Father…
As we approach the upcoming election for Civil District Judge 215, we ask you to strengthen Elaine Palmer in her commitment to dispense with mercy and compassion. Thank you for preparing her through education and experience for public service. We ask that she continue to be a beacon of hope for those often mistreated by our legal system.
We ask that you touch her opponent, helping him to resist the temptation of dirty politics. So often, desire overrules ethics. We ask that, like Elaine Palmer, her opponent run a campaign grounded in truth and rooted in high moral character.
And we thank you for the opportunity to choose our political destiny without fear and intimidation, a right fought for by those who walked the path of freedom before us.
Bless us, Father, and bless Elaine Palmer.
Amen
I think I’ve crossed paths with Judge Kirkland once or twice back in 2008. I can’t say he’s one of those judicial candidates that I’d jump and scream about everyone needing to vote for based on any knowledge of him in the past. But stuff like this makes it easy for me to make a point of voting for Kirkland this time around.
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Followup on Senate District Conventions
The following counts for sign-ins from Harris County conventions was shared by outgoing (thanks to redistricting) SD13 honcho, John Behrman:
4/21 Allotted
Signups State Delegates
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SD04 26 37
SD06 106 188
SD07 82 216
SD11 105 81
SD13 151 300
SD15 184 287
SD17 129 204
SD18 5 7
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788 1319
I booked it from SD13 sometime after noon and did three different counts to be as precise as possible. And I counted people working the sign-in station, candidates, staffers, you name it. I never had a count that exceeded 100. There were certainly a few people floating around the hallways of the facility the entire time and I don’t doubt that some folks just got there for the second half of the day (which is usually the time when the majority of attendees give up and head out).
That’s not to say I call “bull” on 151 people at SD13. But it at least suggests that if there were indeed 151 people who signed in (plus candidates, plus staff), they were never there at any one time conducting business.
Mainstream’s comment on the GOP side having lower turnout than the 2010 convention is another indicator to go by. So are the many comments and emails from other parts of the state. I’m curious to know how SD14 in Austin fared.
The 2012 Texas Senate District Conventions in a Nutshell …
Welcome to the year 2012, where all the party politics are going to play out different than in years past. Here’s a snapshot from the Senate District 13 convention earlier today …
Go ahead and click it to “big it” if you want to get a full count of those empty seats.
Four years ago, there were apparently 5,000 people. This year … not even 100. Granted, there’s no hot Presidential primary contest to drive everyone crazy. And granted, this is a rare instance where the conventions had to be held prior to the actual primaries.
But still … 100? By the spokesperson’s accounting, SD13 is the second biggest Dem caucus in the state. Around 300 delegates will go to state from SD13 and not even that many showed up to go. What it suggests for the primary turnout should be pretty interesting.
Turnout vs Change of Mind, continued …
» National Journal: Familiar Divisions Give Obama Narrow Edge (Ron Brownstein)
A classic case about why its important to understand the difference between performance – or the level of support within a part of the electorate – and the vote share of the subgroup. Brownstein captures three disparate polling results and highlights how the different vote shares lead to different results despite the performance among white and non-white being similar to 2008.
The surveys-from ABC and the Washington Post; the Pew Research Center; CNN/ORC; and the first Gallup tracking poll, diverge in their overall results. The first three polls show Obama leading by seven, four and nine percentage points respectively; the first Gallup track placed Romney up by two percentage points.
But the Gallup track, which is conducted among registered voters, has a sample that looks much more like the electorate in 2010 than the voting population that is likely to turn out in 2012: only 22 percent of the Gallup survey was non-white, according to figures the organization provided to Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz. That was close to the non-white share of the vote in 2010 (23 percent), but in 2008, minorities comprised 26 percent of all voters, according to exit polls; the Obama campaign, and other analysts, project the minority share of the vote will increase to 28 percent in 2012. In its survey, Pew, for instance, puts the non-white share at 25 percent.
The division between the white and non-white share of the vote profoundly affects the results because all of the surveys show a racial gap between Obama and Romney that could be at least as large as 2008.
There’s obviously a lot of innings to play between now and November. But, to me, hte biggest determinant of the outcome isn’t going to be who changes their mind about which candidate to support, so much as it will be who changes their mind about voting or not voting. All that to suggest that I anticipate things being closer than they were in 2008 and how that closeness impacts swing states makes the difference. Or, if you prefer … in 2008, the swing states were Obama states – in 2012, they revert to Kerry v Bush tossup status. Predict at your own peril this far out.
The Persuadables
» Politico: The fight for ‘the persuadables’
Another worthwhile read since some of us are going into the direct heat of Primary Election season. I’m reminded of a handful of election history projects that I’ve been meaning to get to since candidates started filing and my dance card started filling up. But this story serves as an interesting national overview of the shift that Anglo Dems might take on the Presidential contest.
Consider it an exercise in symmetrical warfare: a campaign in which the two parties’ nominees are equally hobbled with the sliver of voters who are actually persuadable.
“Whites as a group are leaning Republican. … The subgroups of whites that seem to be really divided are the higher-education whites,” said Mike Dimock, associate director of the Pew Research Center. “College grad[uate] whites are split today. They were split in 2008. While Obama seems to have lost some ground among whites overall, he hasn’t lost ground among these higher socioeconomic whites.”
Pew’s most recent data bears that out: among white college graduates, Obama had 47 percent of the vote to Romney’s 48 percent. In all other education brackets, Romney wins white voters by double-digits.
Pivoting to the local example, I’ll preface my remarks with a pointer over to the Harris County political tribe mapping that I’d done in 2007/08 here. It’s worth pointing out that when we reviewed prior elections, the Anglo Dem area in Harris County actually swung Republican in 1994. I’m too far behind on free time to do a precise overview of 2010, but a cursory view indicates that the numbers did not swing much, if at all, for 2010 in this area. Again – 2010 was not an election where a lot of people changed their mind about what party they supported. It was an election where a lot of people on one side were motivated to come out and vote in a non-Presidential election. While the conventional wisdom in losses such as these is that “Democrats didn’t turn out to vote”, that’s not really the case throughout much of Texas. And certainly not in Harris County.
What that means for 2012 is still open to a lot of interpretation. For the time being, I think any national polls are worth an extra helping of grains of salt when you look at the sub-demographics as this Politico story does. Vote shares are one thing. Turnout levels are something different.
I think its entirely possible that Obama can perform exactly the same in terms of vote shares among any slice of demographic you want to look at … and still register a few points worse than he did in 2008 due to lower turnout. But polls aren’t great at capturing turnout differentials – that’s why we get so many off-the-wall polls during midterm years. Presidential years are still going to be big turnout elections – at least, in general terms. But given the massive turnout growth seen in 2008, I wouldn’t be surprised to see turnout go south this year. And whether that comes disproportionately out of Obama’s or Romney’s hide … nobody knows right now.
The Normals
» NY Review of Books: In the Heartland (Joseph Lelyveld)
An interesting sidenote in what passes for a “review” of the Barone biennial “Almanac of American Politics” …
Before visiting the Illinois Seventeenth, I wondered whether I’d find any prospective voters who backed both Obama in 2008 and Bobby Schilling in 2010. Doing some doorbell ringing on a chilly Sunday afternoon in Moline, I finally found one, a woman in her thirties who said she worked in “human resources.” Even now she didn’t seem to be aware of any contradiction in her voting choices. “I figured Bobby Schilling was a local business owner,” she said. “I thought he had common sense.” Across the street I met another Obama supporter, a retired woman, who said: “Bobby Schilling? I don’t know if he’s a Democrat or a Republican.”
Minutes later, on the same street, I met a woman who had moved in with her mother, an Alzheimer’s sufferer. She was now working as a cook at the airport to pay the taxes and the mortgage on her mother’s house. I asked whether she thought the health care plan had any bearing on her mother’s situation. The question had occurred to her, she said, and she might look into it. But the family had always voted Republican and she was sure she’d do the same whatever she learned about the new law. I noted that this Republican was wearing a T-shirt that said Red Sox in what might be considered White Sox territory. “I bought it at Goodwill Industries,” she explained.
Random and inconclusive as they were, my encounters that afternoon were a reminder that for all the intensity with which the new media follow the twisting “narrative” of the unfolding campaign through its earliest stages, much of the electorate—potentially the part that will decide the outcome—has yet to pay close attention. The Democrats I met backed Obama in an uncomplicated way. They didn’t say they were “disappointed” the way the chattering classes on the coasts often do. They were simply for him. “I don’t think the guy has had enough time to fix the mess,” said the occupant of a house flying the largest American flag on the block who turned out to be an AT&T lineman. The Republicans were simply against him; only one, a retired schoolteacher, infused her comments with a trace of the venom that spills over at Tea Party rallies. “When he was elected, I said to myself, ‘How much damage can he do?’ Now,” she said, with plenty of emphasis, “we’ve seen how much.”
Not everyone reads a dozen or more different news sources in the course of a day and not everyone falls cleanly in line with the nature of the political game as its played today. Two of the greatest errors I see made in campaigns are assuming that everyone identified as a Democrat thinks like you do and assuming that swing voters are simply missing the big picture – one that they’d clearly get in line with one party or the other if they simply had the proper information.
There no doubt that the political game among any ruling class (be it in DC, Austin, Houston, or elsewhere) is far more of a zero-sum game than the rest of everyday life. But there’s still a lot more to be envied from those who lead a more normal life outside of the bickering, the false choices, and the bargaining that goes into politics.
Big Day In Houston Football …
» Chron: Experienced Piland Gets QB Nod
I admit, I like the move. I assume it wasn’t for nothing that Piland beat out the one-time star prospect Terrance Broadway two seasons ago. And given the head start he had during his redshirt season, it sounds like he had as good of a mentoring as one can get. And just to add one bit of re-assurance, Piland becomes (possibly) the third consecutive four-year starter (sorta) for the Cougars. Now to find a way to get over my loathing of Piland’s alma mater, Southlake Carroll, for three seasons.
» Chron: Timing was right for UH to refresh identity with new look
Not exactly on-the-field matters here, but worth noting. I do like the updated UH logo since it strikes a happy balance between the skinny UH that I grew up with and went to school with and the more modern, telegenic, fat UH that we’ve had for several years now. As for the Penn State ripoff idea for Shasta, that’s far less welcome than the remote, live Shasta that we’ve added.
» Chron: New coach Shealy eager to put HBU football on field in 2013
» Chron: HBU plans to build 10,000-seat on-campus football stadium
I can’t say that I’m well-versed in the history of Houston Baptist’s new coach, Vic Shealy. But I’m happy as a clam to see things moving forward since the school is within walking distance from home. The talk of a few “exhibition-type” games next season does nothing to quell that enthusiasm.
Food For Thought on Easter Weekend
» CNN: The bitter truth behind the chocolate in your Easter basket
Ever wonder where that chocolate comes from?
Some 70 to 75 percent of the world’s cocoa beans are grown on small farms in West Africa, including the Ivory Coast, according to the World Cocoa Foundation and the International Cocoa Initiative. The CNN Freedom Project reports that in the Ivory Coast alone, there are an estimated 200,000 children working the fields, many against their will, to satisfy the world’s hunger for chocolate.
The average American eats around 11 pounds of chocolate each year, and the weeks leading up to Easter show the second biggest United States sales spike of the year next to Halloween – 71 million pounds according to a 2009 Neilsen report. A recent press release from Kraft claims that worldwide, more consumers purchase chocolate during Easter than any other season.
…
[Demand Foresight CEO, Gene] Tanski says to pay attention to where the chocolate is grown and produced. Because of measures like the Harkin-Engel Protocol or “Cocoa Protocol” which was enacted in 2001 to enlist companies to voluntarily certify they had stopped the practice of child labor, as well as some of the components of free trade, consumers are starting to be able to track where cocoa comes from.
“If it comes from Africa, there is most likely slave labor involved. If it comes from South America or Asia, chances are that there is not. That’s not to say there aren’t poor conditions, but it’s not the slave labor that’s highlighted in the CNN report. The tracking is getting better and better all the time,” he adds.
This reminded me of an obscure, but incredibly interesting copy of Arthur Knapp’s “Cocoa and Chocolate: Their History from Plantation to Consumer” that I read during my college years. It was written in 1923, but still offered a good overview of the geography and the harvesting trade without the sensationalism.
Still, it doesn’t take much to move me on toward a chocolate that upgrades my habit and does a little bit of good around the world. As much as I’ve been sold on Hershey’s, they’re not talking about their suppliers. As far as selection goes, this is what my local, third-rate Fiesta has to offer. I’m pretty sure that anyone who lives in a more yuppified part of town wouldn’t have a problem getting an even better selection.
For the record, I’ve tried the Alter-Eco Dark Velvet. I can’t say I was particularly inspired by it, but I’m more than fine sampling some other ideas on what to do with chocolate before settling on a preference.
Redistricting: The Personal Impact
Two little side effects of redistricting as it impacts me:
- I move from Senate District 17 to Senate District 13, which means that the entertainment value of Senate District Conventions just went up exponentially. I may have to attend one this time around, even if only for anthropological reasons. As far as what it means for who my State Senator is, I guess it’s an upgrade on the merits – lose Joan Huffman; gain Rodney Ellis. They don’t seem to make State Senators the way I like ‘em. But I could do a lot worse.
- Gulfton and a few surrounding areas is also included in the new 7th Congressional District. Yeah – Gulfton and Hedwig Village have a lot to do with one another. But the move means that I’ll now have to concern myself with who to vote for in the primary. Kuff gets going with the interviews for this: James Cargas, Lissa Squiers, and Phillip Andrews. For some reason, losing Al Green for John Culberson really makes me want to revisit that whole “two Hispanic districts in Houston” since that plan had me being represented by Gene Green. Short of Green, there is zero chance of an upgrade in either partisan direction in Harris County. Then again, maybe I’ll see what the commute time looks like from the 14th District after Election Day.
Sugar Land’s War on Apartments
» Chron: For some in Sugar Land, apartments leave a sour taste
Strange things are afoot in Sugar Land …
The planned development of the city’s last piece of open land would turn the abandoned Imperial Sugar site – the very genesis of the city – into an $800 million urban space with museums, parks, luxury apartments, restaurants and a theater.
“It represents our evolution,” said Doug Adolph, a city spokesman, “where we’ve been and where we’re going.”
Yet the project has stirred vocal and passionate opposition. More than 2,000 residents signed a petition against part of the plan and homeowners formed a committee – complete with study groups, a website and an email distribution list – to track the project’s progress since 2007, fighting various components. Tuesday, before the City Council tentatively approved the project, many among the crowd of about 150 residents voiced emotional appeals against it.
The crux of their opposition: No more apartments.
Not surprisingly, comparisons to Alief and Gulfton are included in the story. And if anyone thinks that the development in question is approximating either, I hope there’s a 12-step program for stuff like that. If you want to see one of the more successful town square concepts in action, Sugar Land’s has been a pretty hopping place every time I’ve been there. I’m sure that there are issues with trying to replicate that concept in an area currently without a large, pre-existing population immediately surrounding it. But I’d be willing to bet on the success of the new project, as well as the evaporation of the NIMBY concerns once they realize who moves into apartments that rent north of $1,000/mo.
The God of Crisis
» Newsweek: Christianity in Crisis (Andrew Sullivan)
Give Sully credit for being able to spark some debate. But I can’t quite bring myself to fully embrace where he goes with this …
The Catholic Church’s hierarchy lost much of its authority over the American flock with the unilateral prohibition of the pill in 1968 by Pope Paul VI. But in the last decade, whatever shred of moral authority that remained has evaporated. The hierarchy was exposed as enabling, and then covering up, an international conspiracy to abuse and rape countless youths and children. I don’t know what greater indictment of a church’s authority there can be—except the refusal, even now, of the entire leadership to face their responsibility and resign. Instead, they obsess about others’ sex lives, about who is entitled to civil marriage, and about who pays for birth control in health insurance. Inequality, poverty, even the torture institutionalized by the government after 9/11: these issues attract far less of their public attention.
For their part, the mainline Protestant churches, which long promoted religious moderation, have rapidly declined in the past 50 years. Evangelical Protestantism has stepped into the vacuum, but it has serious defects of its own. As New York Times columnist Ross Douthat explores in his unsparing new book, Bad Religion: How We Became a Nation of Heretics, many suburban evangelicals embrace a gospel of prosperity, which teaches that living a Christian life will make you successful and rich. Others defend a rigid biblical literalism, adamantly wishing away a century and a half of scholarship that has clearly shown that the canonized Gospels were written decades after Jesus’ ministry, and are copies of copies of stories told by those with fallible memory. Still others insist that the earth is merely 6,000 years old—something we now know by the light of reason and science is simply untrue. And what group of Americans have pollsters found to be most supportive of torturing terror suspects? Evangelical Christians. Something has gone very wrong. These are impulses born of panic in the face of modernity, and fear before an amorphous “other.” This version of Christianity could not contrast more strongly with Jesus’ constant refrain: “Be not afraid.” It would make Jefferson shudder.
I’m sure that if we could time-travel back to 2002/2003, something like this might goad someone like me into attempting a good ol’ fashioned fisking. But in the absence of time travel, I’ll offer only a few points to interrupt the banging of my head against a wall after reading the entire article:
- Way too much effort is expended to try and re-make Thomas Jefferson into “the one who got it.” It’s almost the inverse of what David Barton does to deify third-tier propagandists from the 1700s who made some point that Barton now seeks to enact. Jefferson’s views on faith/Jesus/religion were a bit more complicated than Sullivan offers up.
- Losing the timeless by dwelling on the messiness of the timely. Easily the most frustrating of aspects here. Yes, all the chatter about birth control will certainly maintain some attention. But is it really at the core of why American Christianity is going through something that’s already been witnessed in European Christianity decades (if not centuries) before?
In fact, there’s plenty of good material to lay out a case that “power” has corrupted both churches in a fairly systemic way. But I guess it’s better to just throw in a cheap nod toward the fads of the day. The points Sullivan does make with regard to the abuses of power tend to be the most compelling. But if you want more along those lines, I’d heartily recommend giving Greg Boyd’s 2004 sermon series on “The Cross and the Sword” a spin over the Easter weekend. Boyd’s thesis is one that I’ve been a fan of since reading “The Myth of a Christian Nation.” Boyd borrows heavily from John Howard Yoder‘s earlier writing, if you’re inclined to go further back for “source” material. Compared to reading both authors, it’s hard to read Sullivan’s article as a prescriptive with appreciation. As a diagnosis, it’s no doubt better.
And since we’re at the obligatory Easter weekend (where something approaching everyone goes to church), I’ll simply note that I’ll be spending the next three days with these folk. I can’t say enough good things about the place.
A Quick Aggre-blogpost for the Day …
Apologies for the dearth of blogging. The last half of the past week got a bit busy. A couple of things to note very quickly, though:
- Kuff interviewed all of the HD137 candidates last week. Gene Wu is a client, so I’m biased in my preference.
- This week, Kuff gets to CD14, where Nick Lampson gets the grilling.
- Stace moved into my ‘hood. He won’t last a month.
- Oh, and this happened when I picked up the guitar and hit record. It’s not me singing … I just play guitar.
The latest phase of plucking away at my noisemaker has been to explore some songs that I grew up loving in order to learn from other guitarists and develop a little better knowledge of song structure. This tune was exactly as much fun as I anticipated the project being, although I’m sure the neighbors have a different opinion. Next up is Pat Benatar’s “Hit Me With Your Best Shot.” Another Neil Giraldo solo. And if it goes well over next weekend, I might do another Benatar tune to maximize this chapter of the learning experience.
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