State Representative, District 137: Gene Wu
Easily the biggest one of importance to me since I’m still drawn in District 137. Also due to the fact that, professionally, I’m busting a hump or two trying to get the guy elected. I don’t think its my style to be half-in for an open seat in my neighborhood. Much of the rationale here is similar to that I used for supporting Mike Laster in his two most recent runs for City Council: having a representative who’s been involved in the neighborhood issues means a lot to an area typically overlooked. And much like the most recent race for Houston’s District J, there’s not a bad candidate running. But just like that year, there is only one clear choice if you want someone who’s dealt with the area on a day-to-day basis.

Dem. Party Chair: Lane Lewis
I’m old enough to remember the Claude Jones years. Enough. Lane may certainly be a departure in style and background from the previous run of party chairs we’ve had. We’ll find out soon enough whether that’s a good or bad thing. But there’s no argument over the fact that the opposing candidate in this race would be another shot in the foot that I don’t think we have the luxury of affording.

U.S. Representative, District 7: James Cargas
After doing a small amount of work on the Skelly campaign in 2008, its hard to see how anyone else steps up to the plate with money, resume, background, or whatever and improves the odds. But there are three candidates up for this one and I’ll take a semi-respectable showing for whatever trouble its worth to run everywhere.

State Board of Education, District 6: Tracy Jensen
Redistricting happened a hundred years ago, right? I’ve long since forgotten what the math looked like in the new 6th. However long the odds are, though, its still worth putting the best showing possible against Terri Leo.

State District Judge, 215th: Steven Kirkland
Funny thing is, I don’t have any qualms with the attorney who’s gunning for Kirkland. And under normal circumstances, I suspect that Elaine Palmer would have far better political advice than she’s received this time around. Maybe she would have even payed attention to it long enough to not let anyone know she’s as nutty as she’s shown. But the secret’s out now. So I think I’ll stick with the guy who’s there now.

District Attorney: Zack Fertitta
I don’t have any major hangups with voting for Pat Lykos if the loony Dem wins this race. But Zack’s a good candidate with a good resume for the job. I hope people are paying attention to this one.

Sheriff: Adrian Garcia
Seriously? … why would anyone challenge Garcia in the primary? For whatever reason, they are. So my stamp is down with the guy I lifted a finger to help back in 2008. He’s pretty dang good. So I think I’ll keep him as my Sheriff.

County School Trustee, Pos. 3: Diane Trautman
I can’t say that this is as strong an endorsement or need to prevent some whackjob from being on my ballot in November. But I think Diane’s just the right one based on the strength of her resume.

I still have no idea what to even call for a coin toss on some contested primaries for County Commissioner (vs. Radack) and Constable (vs Camus). Both are going to be for nominees that have no chance in an area drawn a bit better for the GOP. Haven’t met any of the candidates, so I can’t really judge from anything else I’ve seen.

A few races elsewhere that I don’t have any kind of say in …

State Representative, District 144: Ornaldo Ybarra
Admittedly, I’ll be shocked if he wins. The money and organizational strength tends to be behind Mary Ann Perez. But I’ve long since believed that Ybarra is a great story for the district since it would be great to see the Hispanic community outside of Houston show some strength. Its just a matter of time.

State Representative, District 146: Borris Miles
Here’s hoping the rubber match ends here. Still prefer having him as my next-door-neighbor State Rep. There doesn’t seem to be any serious money behind Al Edwards this time. And they haven’t been successful at just making up sh*% for the 10pm news to air as an unpaid attack ad on Borris. Yeah, I still remember that, KHOU.

State Representative, District 93: Roger Fisher
This’d be a district that covers my old ‘hood in Tarrant County. The incumbent, Todd Smith, is looking to move up to the State Senate. This one’s a GOP district and normally, I’d care incredibly little. But since the exiting Smith is a Trinity High grad, I feel a little compelled to root on the lone contestant for the open seat that happens to be a fellow alum. It helps that Fisher has also earned the endorsement of Parent PAC. So who knows, maybe he’ll follow in the tradition of the pre-2010 Todd Smith.

Anything other than a yawner of a U.S. Senate primary that I’m overlooking?

» Wash. Post: For Obama, gay marriage stance born of a long evolution
» NY Times: Obama Campaign Pushes the Issue of Gay Marriage
» TNR: Why Gay Rights May Be President Obama’s Biggest Legacy (Jon Rauch)
» TNR: Stop Worrying: There’s No Political Downside to Backing Gay Marriage (Ruy Teixeira)
» TNR: It’s Official, Obama’s Trying to Win the West—Not Ohio (William Galston)
» Gawker: Barack Obama’s Bulls#!t Gay Marriage Announcement
» Andrew Sullivan: Obama Lets Go Of Fear
» Nate Silver: Gay Marriage and the Democratic Base
As if I needed another reminder that there are still different wings of the Democratic Party. I tend to think Obama’s precise statement gives him enough wiggle room to essentially say “I support it, but I’m not going to do anything about it.” It’s just a personal conviction, after all. The comment doesn’t do anything to suggest that 2016 is a completely different animal. Cuomo, O’Malley and others will be running with the figurative courage of their convictions, having passed and signed bills on the issue that Obama won’t do anything about.

What it means for the Democratic Party coalition … we’ll see. I’m not optimistic about it, but I don’t see it as completely fatal, either. Maybe African-American voters maintain their enthusiasm for Obama this November. But for a white nominee in 2016? I’m doubtful. The fact that there exists yawning “age gap” on the issue suggests to me that any fracturing doesn’t occur along the lines of abortion, where broader cultural divides exist within age groups and other constituency groups. How the GOP goes after the issue both this election and in 2016 will probably give much better indicators on how it plays out over the next 20-30 years. For now, all eyes on Ohio and Pennsylvania.

I tend to believe the move also speeds up the already-underway shift of the Democratic Party more toward the big urban counties than it does to broaden its reach. With that in mind, I did do a modicum of research on North Carolina’s most recent Prop 1, double-outlawing gay marriage there. While the proposition lost handily across the state, I wanted to see what happened in a big urban/suburban county. Here’s a comparison of Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) with Prop One on the left and Obama/McCain on the right (click it to big it):

There are some obvious areas where Obama won support in the county yet the vote was in support of Prop One. But there seem to be even more areas where McCain and Prop One both won. So it may not be just the Democrats that “evolve” on the issue.

» CNN: In statement, Lugar defends campaign while criticizing partisan environment
Cillizza’s rejoinder is probably worth reading alongside of Lugar’s own thoughts, as is Ezra Klein’s note on Lugar’s centrist street cred.

Generally speaking, I liked Lugar. That’s not the same as agreeing with any substantial number of his votes. But, to the extent that he was viewed as a “moderate”, it seems to be more rooted in his style rather than his politics. The fact that Lugar wasn’t a name-calling, flame-thrower ideologue who does what a 70-yr old Senator from Kentucky (himself sometimes at odds with the N-C/F-T/I wing of today’s GOP) tells them to do.

» Chron: Texas A&M tabs UH’s Rhoades as candidate for AD position
I have to admit that I have a hard time seeing this. Rhoads strikes me as a one-trick pony AD, a guy who comes in and oversees new stadium projects. I have a hard time seeing him as a successful SEC AD. But what do I know about being AD? I’m less crazy about the idea of UH’s AD gig once more becoming a revolving door. For all the talk about a football coach that could possibly have a tenure longer than 4 or 5 years, an AD with an average timestamp of three years on his past two gigs seems a bit out of place.

» Sharpstown’s problem? Its image, civic leaders say
Since much of my time these days is in an effort to get a new State Rep elected in my home district, this is a welcome read. I honestly think it takes a bit more than this one look at this sliver of southwest Houston to understand it more fully. But it’s something. And its definitely good to see some meaningful context added to the negative reputation around Sharpstown in particular. Our newly minted Council Member is quoted, as is the latest president of the Sharpstown Civic Association, Peter Acquaro. Stace riffs on the article over at his blog.

One point that I’ll add is that, in slicing and dicing data and walk lists for a political campaign, I’ve had to go over the area with an entirely more granular perspective than I’ve done previously. I was a bit surprised to see a few developments going up in District 137 (a few in Sharpstown and a few on the eastern border, closer to Bellaire and the Galleria). These were townhomes and/or condos selling and/or valued in the $350k-500k ballpark. In the case of the Sharpstown development, these were developments surrounded by a mix of apartments ranging anywhere from “pretty decent” to “maybe not.” To be sure, there were some inevitable foreclosures and some speculative buying of multiple properties. But my takeaway is there are at least people who are betting a pretty penny on a turnaround. That’s a lot more than just boosterism.

» Let’s just say it: The Republicans are the problem. (Thomas E. Mann and Norman J. Ornstein)
Honesty for ya. It sure beats the silly “Politifact” approach to determining truths among political claims because the writers and editors of the original stories with those claims are too timid to call a lie a lie.

» Demographics No Longer Destiny for Democrats (Forrest Wilder)
I’m not exactly won over by Wilder as a demographic anthropologist. Sure, he’s got the degree (from UT, however). But I’ll take my “white kid from the ‘hood” cred over his “white kid from the ‘burbs” non-cred in terms of our comparative ability to wrap our minds around the problem … however that’s defined. Be that as it may, he’s the one with the writing gig at the Texas Observer. So the debate that ensues from this article is worth a read.

For all of that, however, I don’t disagree with part of his initial conclusion:

The party recently launched The Promesa Project, an effort to get young Latinos to “promise” to act as “Democratic messengers to their families and social networks,” according to the project’s website. The party is investing $1 million in it. Better than nothing. Yet Promesa, modeled on the “Great Schlep,” a 2008 initiative deployed in Florida to get young Jews to convince their grandparents to vote for Obama, is only a complement, not a substitute, to the dull, block-by-block work needed to enfranchise Latinos. Until that happens, Texas Democrats run the risk of becoming even more irrelevant.

The relevance of any party structure – D or R – is completely worth discussing. I tend to lean toward the increasing irrelevance of both. That’s not going so far as to say there isn’t a role for them. And in the case of the party of my personal preference, I think launching something like Promesa is in line with what they should do. Where Wilder is right is that it is a complement. But I’m biased since I’ve been pushing out blockwalkers for the past several weeks to engage voters in southwest Houston about voting for a quality candidate.

I’m not sure that TDP is of the opinion that they are eliminating the need for such work. Especially since they support the very tool that I’m using to organize with (again, the exact sort of thing that a party should do). In the end, I think its the discussion of relevance that’s irrelevant. Connectivity between a constituency and a political party has less to do with what either party does or says via their spokesfolks or twitter managers and more to do with the effectiveness and resonance that individual candidates on the ballot do to engage those constituencies. But I guess an esoteric argument like that doesn’t create as much friction as simply saying something like “the party is becoming irrelevant” as if there were anything that one person or an improved facebook page could do to reverse America’s growing detachment from pre-existing definitions of political structure.

» My wasted day on Capitol Hill (Vivek Wadhwa)

In short: what he said. In particular:

Government leaders — at least some of those present — actually seemed to believe they could, through legislation and spending, increase entrepreneurship and innovation. They asked questions such as: What legislation can we enact to build innovation ecosystems, facilitate mentorship, and teach entrepreneurship? They didn’t seem to understand that these are things entrepreneurs do—not governments.

Governments routinely build science parks, provide subsidies to chosen industries and set up investment funds — all in an effort to spark economic growth. But hardly any of these efforts bear fruit.

With that, here’s what’s spinning in my phone …

1. I Do (Paul Gilbert)
I believe this is a Japanese bonus track off of Gilbert’s first solo album. So I never had the chance to listen to this 1000 times in a row back when I picked up the CD (that’s what we called MP3s back then, kids). Considering how much I enjoyed where Gilbert was artistically back in this period, I’m playing the heck out of this one for good reason. The guy seemed to have left Mr. Big with a terrific understanding of pop sensibility and how to combine it with having a load of fun on guitar. Here’s the video to prove it in this case.

2. Do You Love Me (Paul Stanley)
I never got into the original recorded version of this tune for one simple reason: I had only two KISS albums as a child: Alive and Alive II. That was my most devious plot to trick my parents who agreed to buy me two albums for a birthday present. This song didn’t make the cut of Alive II. I probably heard it while playing a friend’s copy of Destroyer from time to time. But the song really never took until the Unplugged Reunion. As far as a full-bore electric version of the tune, I have to confess that the Starman’s solo, live rendition is pretty solid.

3. Michelle Don’t Live Here No More (Last Autumn’s Dream)
Why Mikael Erlandsson isn’t widely known outside of Europe is a mystery to me. This is off of a relatively recent release of one of his projects. If you’re a fan of anything remotely AOR or melodic rock, check it out. If you like what you here, there’s also some solo material that he’s done, as well as another band project called Salute … which is harder to find outside of the export market.

4. Hands Tied (Scandal)
Hard for me to believe this was on the same album (that’s what we called CDs back then, kids) as “The Warrior.” But the love affair with this song is borne of my need to listen ahead to the next artist I plan on covering before I record the one I’m working on now. Benatar’s “Hit Me With Your Best Shot” will get a few tracks tonight. A certain, obvious Scandal tune is planned after that. Here’s hoping I mess up neither of them.

5. The World We Live In (MacAlpine)
This is just me, digging up some obscure 90s AOR metal that I’ve not listened to in ages. MacAlpine refers to erstwhile shred guitar player, Tony MacAlpine, spending some bucks trying to join in on the supergroup phenomenon that gave us Mr. Big, Damn Yankees, Bad English, and to a lesser extent: House of Lords. I think its a shame that Tony Mac never made it with this project beyond the first release (that’s what we called it when you could buy either a CD, album or cassette, kids). The band came through Houston on tour. I remember thinking MacAlpine was a bit sloppier than the other shred guys I caught back then (for the record, Vinnie Moore was spot on with his material). Oh, and the singer made me shout out the chorus to a cover of Argent’s “Hold Your Head Up” because I wasn’t there to give a rat’s behind about the singer. I don’t remember the moment really being the hit of the show.

6. Sing Over Me (Jonathan Salas)
Unknown kid out of the Katy area that opened for Stryper the last time they played the House of Blues. He deserves to be bigger than he is. He’s still a kid, so there’s this thing called twitter that he uses more than anything else. You’d be treating yourself right if you picked up his CDs.

7. Loved By You (Lincoln Brewster)
My weekly routine, when done properly, usually involves switching over to some churchy tunes on Friday to get amped up for Saturday and otherwise not merely rush through my Friday like a workaholic of some sort. Brewster’s about as good as they get for an easy-going, centering sorta song. There’s certainly other material of his that shows off the guitar a bit more. For whatever reason, though, I usually like his slower stuff. The irony is that my palate is in so much need of a change of pace when I leave church on Saturdays that I go straight to heavy metal afterwards.

8. Song of the Saints (Page CXVI)
An unfortunately little-known band that a few hipster types are tuned into. They make their way to my church every so often and they’re usually a welcome treat. What they do with classic hymns is pretty amazing. This is easily my favorite tune of theirs, but there’s a tighter bundle of tunes vying for second place. One of the other things I love about them is that they sell instrumental backing tracks for all of their releases. The music is a bit out of my own stylistic preference, but I’m still holding out hope to do something with my guitar over the backing track of this one.

9. Justice Will Roll Down (Sandra McCracken)
McCracken is the wife of one of my faves: Derek Webb. I’ve tried to get into her tunes a number of times, to no avail. Then she came out with a “reworked hymns” project that included this and a few others that I fell in love with. The band at church has put this into the worship setlist a few weeks in a row, which helps remind me to re-insert this into heavy rotation.

10. Shadows of the Night (Pat Benatar)
And this is me, fading out of my Benatar phase. If tonight’s recording session goes halfway well (which, for me, translates to “incredibly well”), I think its time to focus on playing some Scandal and then get into the more guitar-heavy tunes I’ve planned to cover. That aside, Neil Giraldo has never gotten his due as one of the best guitar players of the 80s. I’m convinced that part of the reason for taking so long to record “Hit Me With Your Best Shot” is because I really wanted to spend some time learning a few elements of Giraldo’s style that occur outside of that song.

So that’s what’s on my earbuds this past week. If there’s anything similar to this sorta material that you think might be new to me, feel free to let me know.

Days and hours are as follows:

Early Voting Hours of Operation
May 14th – May 18th: 8:00 a.m. – 4:30 p.m.
May 19th: 7:00 a.m. – 7:00 p.m.
May 20th: 1:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m.
May 21th – May 25th: 7:00 a.m. – 7:00 p.m.

Two good reads from two different vantage points of demographics and the LA riots of 1992. Spare time comes at a bit more of a premium with only 5 weeks left until a Primary election is conducted. But these were worth a read, along with a re-read of an older link on Compton’s Latino voters as well as another link about some demographic evolution in NYC.

UPDATE: … and, of course, the 2010 demographics of Los Angeles and Orange Counties was mapped out here. That doesn’t give you a sense of the degree of change from 1992, but its still a helpful visual. Not sure what millenium I’ll get around to a 1980-to-2010 time series of those counties, but I don’t doubt that it would be interesting to see.

I’m a little late to this party, but one thing jumped out at me during the most recent kerfuffle over Elaine Palmer’s primary challenge to sitting Democratic judge, Steve Kirkland. PKH covers the internecine aspect of the battle, which is bad enough. A ride through the Third Ward over the weekend for the Senate District convention also saw a number of “empty lot” signs of Palmer’s posted on a lot of places where there were no voters to be had. At best, that’s just funny. Besides, one location had both Palmer’s and Kirkland’s signs next to each other.

But some of the other communication that Palmer has done has been worth noting, also. Below the fold is an email from around 3/12. In it, you get pictures of a couple that were “Meet & Greet” hosts as well as another of “Supporters.” The problem with this is that the “supporters” aren’t really supporters. The photo is a stock photo that anyone can buy for about a buck or two. You can see the stock photo of one of the couples in this email here.

And every other name mentioned in the email as a supporter or host doesn’t turn up as a registered voter in Harris County.

A few days after that, the Palmer campaign sent a similar email with the following prayer included in it (emphasis mine):

Heavenly Father…

As we approach the upcoming election for Civil District Judge 215, we ask you to strengthen Elaine Palmer in her commitment to dispense with mercy and compassion. Thank you for preparing her through education and experience for public service. We ask that she continue to be a beacon of hope for those often mistreated by our legal system.

We ask that you touch her opponent, helping him to resist the temptation of dirty politics. So often, desire overrules ethics. We ask that, like Elaine Palmer, her opponent run a campaign grounded in truth and rooted in high moral character.

And we thank you for the opportunity to choose our political destiny without fear and intimidation, a right fought for by those who walked the path of freedom before us.

Bless us, Father, and bless Elaine Palmer.
Amen

I think I’ve crossed paths with Judge Kirkland once or twice back in 2008. I can’t say he’s one of those judicial candidates that I’d jump and scream about everyone needing to vote for based on any knowledge of him in the past. But stuff like this makes it easy for me to make a point of voting for Kirkland this time around.

———————-

About Elaine A Native Houstonian Practicing Attorney for 14 years Graduate of  Lamar High School University of Houston Texas Wesleyan University Of Law Member of Trinity United Methodist Church Member of Sigma Gamma Rho Sorority, Inc.   Quick Links Our Website :: Does being first on the ballotimprove your chance of winning public office? YES! Specialists in the mechanics of voting have long recognized that the order in which candidates’ names appear on aballot influences voters’ decisions. Typically, candidates listed at the top of a ballot earn a greater share of the vote than they would receive in any other position, regardless of their policies and personalities. Now research on voting patterns in local state elections coauthored by a Kellogg School researcher has taken the issue a stage further. It concludes that the first listing on the ballot also increases a candidate’s chances of actually winning office-by almost five percentage points.     And:   The results were clear-cut. ”In one out of ten elections, the candidate listed first won just because he was listedfirst,” Salant recalls. “The first candidate advantage,” the paper notes, “comes primarily at the expense of candidates listed in the median ballot position who are 2.5 percentage points less likely to win office than expected absent order effects” (Figure 1). The first candidate advantage was “similar in city council and in school board elections, in races with and without an open seat, and in races consolidated and not consolidated with statewide general elections.” In addition, the percentages of winners from specific positions remained similar whether the elections were designed to produce one or more winners. Source:Kellogg School of Management     Special Thanks to Meet and Greet Hosts.     Richard and Rita Wright of Spring smile for the camera.   A special thanks to those of you who have been so gracious in opening your homes to host a “Meet and Greet”for Elaine. Richard and Rita Wright of Spring, TX “Buck” and Genny Mathews of Tomball, TX Marty and Katherine Anderson of Katy, TX The Nguyens are now proud supporters of Elaine Palmer for Judge. NOTE: If you want to host a “meet and greet” for Elaine contact the campaign at info@ElaineHPalmerforJudge.com orwww.ElainePalmerforJudge.com. Message from Elaine Palmer   Thank you to the many people I’ve met during this campaign for Civil District Judge 215. I appreciate the warm reception I’ve received in churches, and senior centers, and from people I meet on the streets. I am grateful for the wise counsel I have received.  I am moved by those who shake my hand and share their stories of their fight for justice and ask that when I get elected that I don’t forget where I came from, and serve all people fairly. Keep me in your prayers, and join me on this road to become the next Civil District Judge 215.   We can win this together.   Elaine Palmer Have you heard our NEW Radio Ads?     Polling for Palmer         Elaine Palmer Volunteers Chatting Friends of Elaine H. PalmerSupporters   The Honorable Chris Oliver, Houston Community College Trustee   The Honorable Diane Olmos-Guzman, former Houston Community College Trustee The Honorable Michael  P. Williams, former Houston Community College Trustee The Honorable Jew Don Boney, former Mayor Pro-Tem and Houston City Council Member Georgia D. Provost, Community Icon & Business woman Jeffrey L. Boney, Community and Small Business Advocate   Michael Neely, Precinct Chair 252   Jacquelyn Baldwin-Doakes- retired HISD Disciplinary Coordinator and Community Activist   Donate Now! You can make an impact on the judicial system in Harris County today. Your donations allow our campaign to reach thousands of voters by mail, phone and other avenues. Make you safe and secure donation by clicking here.

 

        4/21       Allotted
       Signups  State Delegates  
--------------------------------
SD04      26         37
SD06     106        188
SD07      82        216
SD11     105         81
SD13     151        300
SD15     184        287
SD17     129        204
SD18       5          7
--------------------------------
         788       1319 

I booked it from SD13 sometime after noon and did three different counts to be as precise as possible. And I counted people working the sign-in station, candidates, staffers, you name it. I never had a count that exceeded 100. There were certainly a few people floating around the hallways of the facility the entire time and I don’t doubt that some folks just got there for the second half of the day (which is usually the time when the majority of attendees give up and head out).

That’s not to say I call “bull” on 151 people at SD13. But it at least suggests that if there were indeed 151 people who signed in (plus candidates, plus staff), they were never there at any one time conducting business.

Mainstream’s comment on the GOP side having lower turnout than the 2010 convention is another indicator to go by. So are the many comments and emails from other parts of the state. I’m curious to know how SD14 in Austin fared.

Go ahead and click it to “big it” if you want to get a full count of those empty seats.

Four years ago, there were apparently 5,000 people. This year … not even 100. Granted, there’s no hot Presidential primary contest to drive everyone crazy. And granted, this is a rare instance where the conventions had to be held prior to the actual primaries.

But still … 100? By the spokesperson’s accounting, SD13 is the second biggest Dem caucus in the state. Around 300 delegates will go to state from SD13 and not even that many showed up to go. What it suggests for the primary turnout should be pretty interesting.

A classic case about why its important to understand the difference between performance – or the level of support within a part of the electorate – and the vote share of the subgroup. Brownstein captures three disparate polling results and highlights how the different vote shares lead to different results despite the performance among white and non-white being similar to 2008.

The surveys-from ABC and the Washington Post; the Pew Research Center; CNN/ORC; and the first Gallup tracking poll, diverge in their overall results. The first three polls show Obama leading by seven, four and nine percentage points respectively; the first Gallup track placed Romney up by two percentage points.

But the Gallup track, which is conducted among registered voters, has a sample that looks much more like the electorate in 2010 than the voting population that is likely to turn out in 2012: only 22 percent of the Gallup survey was non-white, according to figures the organization provided to Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz. That was close to the non-white share of the vote in 2010 (23 percent), but in 2008, minorities comprised 26 percent of all voters, according to exit polls; the Obama campaign, and other analysts, project the minority share of the vote will increase to 28 percent in 2012. In its survey, Pew, for instance, puts the non-white share at 25 percent.

The division between the white and non-white share of the vote profoundly affects the results because all of the surveys show a racial gap between Obama and Romney that could be at least as large as 2008.

There’s obviously a lot of innings to play between now and November. But, to me, hte biggest determinant of the outcome isn’t going to be who changes their mind about which candidate to support, so much as it will be who changes their mind about voting or not voting. All that to suggest that I anticipate things being closer than they were in 2008 and how that closeness impacts swing states makes the difference. Or, if you prefer … in 2008, the swing states were Obama states – in 2012, they revert to Kerry v Bush tossup status. Predict at your own peril this far out.

Another worthwhile read since some of us are going into the direct heat of Primary Election season. I’m reminded of a handful of election history projects that I’ve been meaning to get to since candidates started filing and my dance card started filling up. But this story serves as an interesting national overview of the shift that Anglo Dems might take on the Presidential contest.

Consider it an exercise in symmetrical warfare: a campaign in which the two parties’ nominees are equally hobbled with the sliver of voters who are actually persuadable.

“Whites as a group are leaning Republican. … The subgroups of whites that seem to be really divided are the higher-education whites,” said Mike Dimock, associate director of the Pew Research Center. “College grad[uate] whites are split today. They were split in 2008. While Obama seems to have lost some ground among whites overall, he hasn’t lost ground among these higher socioeconomic whites.”

Pew’s most recent data bears that out: among white college graduates, Obama had 47 percent of the vote to Romney’s 48 percent. In all other education brackets, Romney wins white voters by double-digits.

Pivoting to the local example, I’ll preface my remarks with a pointer over to the Harris County political tribe mapping that I’d done in 2007/08 here. It’s worth pointing out that when we reviewed prior elections, the Anglo Dem area in Harris County actually swung Republican in 1994. I’m too far behind on free time to do a precise overview of 2010, but a cursory view indicates that the numbers did not swing much, if at all, for 2010 in this area. Again – 2010 was not an election where a lot of people changed their mind about what party they supported. It was an election where a lot of people on one side were motivated to come out and vote in a non-Presidential election. While the conventional wisdom in losses such as these is that “Democrats didn’t turn out to vote”, that’s not really the case throughout much of Texas. And certainly not in Harris County.

What that means for 2012 is still open to a lot of interpretation. For the time being, I think any national polls are worth an extra helping of grains of salt when you look at the sub-demographics as this Politico story does. Vote shares are one thing. Turnout levels are something different.

I think its entirely possible that Obama can perform exactly the same in terms of vote shares among any slice of demographic you want to look at … and still register a few points worse than he did in 2008 due to lower turnout. But polls aren’t great at capturing turnout differentials – that’s why we get so many off-the-wall polls during midterm years. Presidential years are still going to be big turnout elections – at least, in general terms. But given the massive turnout growth seen in 2008, I wouldn’t be surprised to see turnout go south this year. And whether that comes disproportionately out of Obama’s or Romney’s hide … nobody knows right now.

An interesting sidenote in what passes for a “review” of the Barone biennial “Almanac of American Politics” …

Before visiting the Illinois Seventeenth, I wondered whether I’d find any prospective voters who backed both Obama in 2008 and Bobby Schilling in 2010. Doing some doorbell ringing on a chilly Sunday afternoon in Moline, I finally found one, a woman in her thirties who said she worked in “human resources.” Even now she didn’t seem to be aware of any contradiction in her voting choices. “I figured Bobby Schilling was a local business owner,” she said. “I thought he had common sense.” Across the street I met another Obama supporter, a retired woman, who said: “Bobby Schilling? I don’t know if he’s a Democrat or a Republican.”

Minutes later, on the same street, I met a woman who had moved in with her mother, an Alzheimer’s sufferer. She was now working as a cook at the airport to pay the taxes and the mortgage on her mother’s house. I asked whether she thought the health care plan had any bearing on her mother’s situation. The question had occurred to her, she said, and she might look into it. But the family had always voted Republican and she was sure she’d do the same whatever she learned about the new law. I noted that this Republican was wearing a T-shirt that said Red Sox in what might be considered White Sox territory. “I bought it at Goodwill Industries,” she explained.

Random and inconclusive as they were, my encounters that afternoon were a reminder that for all the intensity with which the new media follow the twisting “narrative” of the unfolding campaign through its earliest stages, much of the electorate—potentially the part that will decide the outcome—has yet to pay close attention. The Democrats I met backed Obama in an uncomplicated way. They didn’t say they were “disappointed” the way the chattering classes on the coasts often do. They were simply for him. “I don’t think the guy has had enough time to fix the mess,” said the occupant of a house flying the largest American flag on the block who turned out to be an AT&T lineman. The Republicans were simply against him; only one, a retired schoolteacher, infused her comments with a trace of the venom that spills over at Tea Party rallies. “When he was elected, I said to myself, ‘How much damage can he do?’ Now,” she said, with plenty of emphasis, “we’ve seen how much.”

Not everyone reads a dozen or more different news sources in the course of a day and not everyone falls cleanly in line with the nature of the political game as its played today. Two of the greatest errors I see made in campaigns are assuming that everyone identified as a Democrat thinks like you do and assuming that swing voters are simply missing the big picture – one that they’d clearly get in line with one party or the other if they simply had the proper information.

There no doubt that the political game among any ruling class (be it in DC, Austin, Houston, or elsewhere) is far more of a zero-sum game than the rest of everyday life. But there’s still a lot more to be envied from those who lead a more normal life outside of the bickering, the false choices, and the bargaining that goes into politics.

» Chron: Timing was right for UH to refresh identity with new look
Not exactly on-the-field matters here, but worth noting. I do like the updated UH logo since it strikes a happy balance between the skinny UH that I grew up with and went to school with and the more modern, telegenic, fat UH that we’ve had for several years now. As for the Penn State ripoff idea for Shasta, that’s far less welcome than the remote, live Shasta that we’ve added.

» Chron: New coach Shealy eager to put HBU football on field in 2013
» Chron: HBU plans to build 10,000-seat on-campus football stadium
I can’t say that I’m well-versed in the history of Houston Baptist’s new coach, Vic Shealy. But I’m happy as a clam to see things moving forward since the school is within walking distance from home. The talk of a few “exhibition-type” games next season does nothing to quell that enthusiasm.

Ever wonder where that chocolate comes from?

Some 70 to 75 percent of the world’s cocoa beans are grown on small farms in West Africa, including the Ivory Coast, according to the World Cocoa Foundation and the International Cocoa Initiative. The CNN Freedom Project reports that in the Ivory Coast alone, there are an estimated 200,000 children working the fields, many against their will, to satisfy the world’s hunger for chocolate.

The average American eats around 11 pounds of chocolate each year, and the weeks leading up to Easter show the second biggest United States sales spike of the year next to Halloween – 71 million pounds according to a 2009 Neilsen report. A recent press release from Kraft claims that worldwide, more consumers purchase chocolate during Easter than any other season.

…

[Demand Foresight CEO, Gene] Tanski says to pay attention to where the chocolate is grown and produced. Because of measures like the Harkin-Engel Protocol or “Cocoa Protocol” which was enacted in 2001 to enlist companies to voluntarily certify they had stopped the practice of child labor, as well as some of the components of free trade, consumers are starting to be able to track where cocoa comes from.

“If it comes from Africa, there is most likely slave labor involved. If it comes from South America or Asia, chances are that there is not. That’s not to say there aren’t poor conditions, but it’s not the slave labor that’s highlighted in the CNN report. The tracking is getting better and better all the time,” he adds.

This reminded me of an obscure, but incredibly interesting copy of Arthur Knapp’s “Cocoa and Chocolate: Their History from Plantation to Consumer” that I read during my college years. It was written in 1923, but still offered a good overview of the geography and the harvesting trade without the sensationalism.

Still, it doesn’t take much to move me on toward a chocolate that upgrades my habit and does a little bit of good around the world. As much as I’ve been sold on Hershey’s, they’re not talking about their suppliers. As far as selection goes, this is what my local, third-rate Fiesta has to offer. I’m pretty sure that anyone who lives in a more yuppified part of town wouldn’t have a problem getting an even better selection.

For the record, I’ve tried the Alter-Eco Dark Velvet. I can’t say I was particularly inspired by it, but I’m more than fine sampling some other ideas on what to do with chocolate before settling on a preference.

- I move from Senate District 17 to Senate District 13, which means that the entertainment value of Senate District Conventions just went up exponentially. I may have to attend one this time around, even if only for anthropological reasons. As far as what it means for who my State Senator is, I guess it’s an upgrade on the merits – lose Joan Huffman; gain Rodney Ellis. They don’t seem to make State Senators the way I like ‘em. But I could do a lot worse.

- Gulfton and a few surrounding areas is also included in the new 7th Congressional District. Yeah – Gulfton and Hedwig Village have a lot to do with one another. But the move means that I’ll now have to concern myself with who to vote for in the primary. Kuff gets going with the interviews for this: James Cargas, Lissa Squiers, and Phillip Andrews. For some reason, losing Al Green for John Culberson really makes me want to revisit that whole “two Hispanic districts in Houston” since that plan had me being represented by Gene Green. Short of Green, there is zero chance of an upgrade in either partisan direction in Harris County. Then again, maybe I’ll see what the commute time looks like from the 14th District after Election Day.

Strange things are afoot in Sugar Land …

The planned development of the city’s last piece of open land would turn the abandoned Imperial Sugar site – the very genesis of the city – into an $800 million urban space with museums, parks, luxury apartments, restaurants and a theater.

“It represents our evolution,” said Doug Adolph, a city spokesman, “where we’ve been and where we’re going.”

Yet the project has stirred vocal and passionate opposition. More than 2,000 residents signed a petition against part of the plan and homeowners formed a committee – complete with study groups, a website and an email distribution list – to track the project’s progress since 2007, fighting various components. Tuesday, before the City Council tentatively approved the project, many among the crowd of about 150 residents voiced emotional appeals against it.

The crux of their opposition: No more apartments.

Not surprisingly, comparisons to Alief and Gulfton are included in the story. And if anyone thinks that the development in question is approximating either, I hope there’s a 12-step program for stuff like that. If you want to see one of the more successful town square concepts in action, Sugar Land’s has been a pretty hopping place every time I’ve been there. I’m sure that there are issues with trying to replicate that concept in an area currently without a large, pre-existing population immediately surrounding it. But I’d be willing to bet on the success of the new project, as well as the evaporation of the NIMBY concerns once they realize who moves into apartments that rent north of $1,000/mo.

Give Sully credit for being able to spark some debate. But I can’t quite bring myself to fully embrace where he goes with this …

The Catholic Church’s hierarchy lost much of its authority over the American flock with the unilateral prohibition of the pill in 1968 by Pope Paul VI. But in the last decade, whatever shred of moral authority that remained has evaporated. The hierarchy was exposed as enabling, and then covering up, an international conspiracy to abuse and rape countless youths and children. I don’t know what greater indictment of a church’s authority there can be—except the refusal, even now, of the entire leadership to face their responsibility and resign. Instead, they obsess about others’ sex lives, about who is entitled to civil marriage, and about who pays for birth control in health insurance. Inequality, poverty, even the torture institutionalized by the government after 9/11: these issues attract far less of their public attention.

For their part, the mainline Protestant churches, which long promoted religious moderation, have rapidly declined in the past 50 years. Evangelical Protestantism has stepped into the vacuum, but it has serious defects of its own. As New York Times columnist Ross Douthat explores in his unsparing new book, Bad Religion: How We Became a Nation of Heretics, many suburban evangelicals embrace a gospel of prosperity, which teaches that living a Christian life will make you successful and rich. Others defend a rigid biblical literalism, adamantly wishing away a century and a half of scholarship that has clearly shown that the canonized Gospels were written decades after Jesus’ ministry, and are copies of copies of stories told by those with fallible memory. Still others insist that the earth is merely 6,000 years old—something we now know by the light of reason and science is simply untrue. And what group of Americans have pollsters found to be most supportive of torturing terror suspects? Evangelical Christians. Something has gone very wrong. These are impulses born of panic in the face of modernity, and fear before an amorphous “other.” This version of Christianity could not contrast more strongly with Jesus’ constant refrain: “Be not afraid.” It would make Jefferson shudder.

I’m sure that if we could time-travel back to 2002/2003, something like this might goad someone like me into attempting a good ol’ fashioned fisking. But in the absence of time travel, I’ll offer only a few points to interrupt the banging of my head against a wall after reading the entire article:

- Way too much effort is expended to try and re-make Thomas Jefferson into “the one who got it.” It’s almost the inverse of what David Barton does to deify third-tier propagandists from the 1700s who made some point that Barton now seeks to enact. Jefferson’s views on faith/Jesus/religion were a bit more complicated than Sullivan offers up.

- Losing the timeless by dwelling on the messiness of the timely. Easily the most frustrating of aspects here. Yes, all the chatter about birth control will certainly maintain some attention. But is it really at the core of why American Christianity is going through something that’s already been witnessed in European Christianity decades (if not centuries) before?

In fact, there’s plenty of good material to lay out a case that “power” has corrupted both churches in a fairly systemic way. But I guess it’s better to just throw in a cheap nod toward the fads of the day. The points Sullivan does make with regard to the abuses of power tend to be the most compelling. But if you want more along those lines, I’d heartily recommend giving Greg Boyd’s 2004 sermon series on “The Cross and the Sword” a spin over the Easter weekend. Boyd’s thesis is one that I’ve been a fan of since reading “The Myth of a Christian Nation.” Boyd borrows heavily from John Howard Yoder‘s earlier writing, if you’re inclined to go further back for “source” material. Compared to reading both authors, it’s hard to read Sullivan’s article as a prescriptive with appreciation. As a diagnosis, it’s no doubt better.

And since we’re at the obligatory Easter weekend (where something approaching everyone goes to church), I’ll simply note that I’ll be spending the next three days with these folk. I can’t say enough good things about the place.

- Kuff interviewed all of the HD137 candidates last week. Gene Wu is a client, so I’m biased in my preference.

• Gene Wu
• Sarah Winkler
• Jamaal Smith
• Joe Madden

- This week, Kuff gets to CD14, where Nick Lampson gets the grilling.

- Stace moved into my ‘hood. He won’t last a month.

- Oh, and this happened when I picked up the guitar and hit record. It’s not me singing … I just play guitar.

Jessies_Girl_(take_1).mp3

The latest phase of plucking away at my noisemaker has been to explore some songs that I grew up loving in order to learn from other guitarists and develop a little better knowledge of song structure. This tune was exactly as much fun as I anticipated the project being, although I’m sure the neighbors have a different opinion. Next up is Pat Benatar’s “Hit Me With Your Best Shot.” Another Neil Giraldo solo. And if it goes well over next weekend, I might do another Benatar tune to maximize this chapter of the learning experience.

Using Rio de Janeiro’s Smarter Cities technology firsthand. I want this for Houston, IBM!

The NY Times reported on Rio’s system a few weeks ago. Hopefully, we’ll see soon enough if there are any legitimate plans to start the process for getting a system like this in place. It’d certainly be a positive step. But a far greater step is going to be to crack open some of the data and put it in the hands of people who are more interested in a micro-level view of things.

Doesn’t sound like the individual mandate had a good day in court yesterday. Says Ezra …

The quick read is that today went very badly for supporters of the individual mandate. As one of the experienced Supreme Court watchers who runs SCOTUSblog tweeted, “Paul Clement” — the attorney arguing against the health-care law — “gave the best argument I’ve ever heard. No real hard questions from the right. Mandate is in trouble.”

… and Toobin is more blunt in his assessment:

“This was a train wreck for the Obama administration …. This law looks like it’s going to be struck down. I’m telling you, all of the predictions including mine that the justices would not have a problem with this law were wrong… if I had to bet today I would bet that this court is going to strike down the individual mandate.”

So it looks like the only question left is whether the scope of the opinion will be narrowly tailored to nix the individual mandate, or if the majority in the court will strike for bigger gold in limiting the commerce clause.

The Washington Post interviews Randy Barnett of Georgetown Law and captures his take on the issue at hand …

… the duty to pay taxes is part of your duty to support the government in return for the protections the government gives you. What the government is claiming here is this power — and this ought to disturb people on the left — to make people do business with private companies when Congress thinks it’s convenient.

That’s a fair encapsulation of why I’ve consistently found the individual mandate troubling. The argument that we’re all engaged in the health care market, hence we should pay for it by some means, is problematic on logical grounds. First, the only reason it’s offered is because of a Hippocratic Oath that doesn’t exactly bind any doctor to see any patient on any grounds whatsoever. At least not in any legally codified manner that I’m familiar with. Secondly, the assumption is that the entirety of the uninsured do not manage to cover the health care costs that they end up incurring. I’m sure that the net effect is a loss of dollars, but I’ve not seen anything that outlines the scope of the problem (ie – what percentage of uninsured contribute to the problem). I’m uninsured since I don’t know when (minus some time during 2010). I have incurred zero health care expenses in the past decade. The last time I did, I paid my bill in full. So why do I need to be forced into the insurance market against my will to fix a problem that I don’t contribute to?

In sum, the so-called “health care reform” bill signed into law is, in effect, nothing more than a health insurance reform in this regard. And that brings me to the final problem I have with the mandate: why are we sanctifying the insurance market? Is that really the highlight of liberal thought, these days? … forcing people to deal with the insurance industry? That seems a far cry even from Al Gore’s trope of “the people vs the powerful.”

Looks like the Coogs will be without a home for one season while the new stadium gets put together. I have to admit that I talked myself out of a few games due to the fact that a $25 ticket would get me a mediocre view and zero elbow room. Yes, I was spoiled by the Dome-era Coogs of the 80s and 90s. I sure hope the team is winning during the 2013 season because I like the prospect of catching a few games at Reliant.

It looks like considering name changes isn’t something that directional colleges and UH-Downtown are looking at …

Half a century after being founded by the Baptist General Convention of Texas as “a Christian college of the highest order,” Houston Baptist University may soon erase the religious designation in its name.

Saying that the Baptist tag creates a barrier for potential students, university officials are exploring a name change for the 51-year-old school – a prospect that concerns some alumni who fear HBU’s religious identity would be de-emphasized.

Although an alternative name hasn’t been chosen, one possibility mentioned at an HBU town hall meeting last Thursday was “Morris Christian University,” after Stewart Morris, a founding father and major donor.

I have to admit that I’m a little bit excited at the possibility of catching a few Southland Conference football games in my neighborhood. I can’t say that I’m overly attached to the “Houston Baptist” name anymore than I am the “Huskies” mascot. There just seems something highly oxymoronic about having “Houston” and “Huskies” in the same phrase. But as long as it all makes sense whenever the final product takes to the field, I’m sure I’ll develop a fairly strong rooting interest regardless.

In other Husky Football matters, interviews seem to be focused on a handful of finalists for the head coaching position at what is for now, still HBU.

An interesting snapshot of demographic change … from outside of the US.

Bari, in the far south of Italy, offers a very different picture from Venice. It is still warm. It is the end of September, but the holidaymakers have gone. On a Sunday evening in the Piazza del Ferrarese in the old part of town, the incidental tourist will find the locals perched on a low wall or sitting in little cafés drinking beer or strolling around the square, which serves as a kind of corso, a promenade. The several thousand people gathered in the square look as if they all know each other, children are playing tag at nine o’clock in the evening, teenagers are cooling themselves off with an ice-cream and their nicely dressed parents, and even grandparents, are standing around talking loudly, gesticulating, like in one of Vittorio De Sica’s black-and-white movies from the 1960s.

This is a lively town. If Venice is where old Europe is dying, then Bari is where new Europe is emerging. It is one of the entry points for immigrants to Europe.

The article goes on to give some more color to the situation in Bari – namely that more recent immigration has lead to a subclass of people who aren’t able to gain temporary residency status. I don’t think I’d say the US is anywhere near as bad as how Europe has dealt with immigration. But the differences are definitely getting narrower.

For those wanting to understand why the political deliberation over gay marriage is such a sensitive subject for this White House, look no further than the fact that it splits the two core constituencies that make up President Obama’s base: college-aged voters and African-Americans.

In all likelihood, it’ll be more vexing for the 2016 nominee. Chances are, it won’t be an African-American candidate (prove me wrong, Deval Patrick!) with strong natural ties to Afr-Am voters. It’ll be an Anglo male or female who will either be a strong supporter of gay marriage or a recent convert during the 2016 cycle. So the question of what becomes of these two constituencies won’t be hypothetical forever.

On an additional point of fracturing Democratic constituencies, I’m reminded that I need to renew my online subscription to TNR due to this paywalled article about the divide between Obama and the hedge fund wing of the Democratic Party catching my interest. Alec MacGillis’ work is worth the expense, I suppose. But it certainly helps that there’s a lengthy Gordon Wood writeup in the same issue.

Here’s a small sample of the overviews:

» Wonkbook: Absolutely everything you need to know about health-reform Supreme Court debut
» Kaiser Health News: The Health Law And The Supreme Court: A Primer For The Upcoming Oral Arguments
» Kaiser Health News: Scorecard: What The Health Law Has Delivered, Or Not

That ought to get you up to speed on the outline of the court’s case and some objective merits of Obamacare’s success or lack thereof to date. Not that the latter matters to the court … but since most of us aren’t forming our opinions of the law in constitutional terms, I happen to think its worth a review at this point. Make of it what you will.

If its a little bit of the pre-game tic-toc you want …

» NY Times: In Health Care Case, Lawyers Train for 3-Day Marathon
» Wash. Post: Supreme Court to hear arguments on timing of health-care ruling

And there happens to be ample coverage of the lawyers who will be making the most noise this week …

» NY Mag: The Paul Clement Court
» NY Times: A Lawyer Who Can Simplify the Complex Draws a Big One: Obama’s Health Overhaul

Jonathan Cohn has pretty much been building up to this point and here’s a single instance of where he’s opining these days …

» New Republic: If Medicare Is OK, Obamacare Should Be Too

As for me, I’ve had my marker on the table for quite some time. I think the court strikes down the individual mandate … even if it means a supposed “fractuous” 5-4 ruling. Roberts, et al can certainly make a logical argument that strikes a few chords of constitutional law. But for all intents and purposes, it will be another political ruling from this court.

Now, what that means for the rest of the law or the fate of health care reform as passed, still remains to be seen. Given that the grand bargain of health reform seemed contingent upon there being an individual mandate, I don’t see how it survives without. Whether it could be salvaged with something like Paul Starr’s recommendation for an individual mandate, we’ll see how much room there is for that during the summer.

ADD-ON: Some more good reading from the twitter chatter that does exist …

» The Atlantic: How Obamacare Will Be Settled: A Primer on the Commerce Clause
» ACA Litigation: Some things to look for tomorrow

CONCLUSION: Day one looks like the easiest of them all. Up for discussion today was whether the justices could or could not rule on a law that hasn’t fully taken effect yet. And it seems that much of what took place was that the justices browbeat the very attorney they hired to argue that they shouldn’t. Yeah. You read that right. Government for ya …

In the first day of hearings at the Supreme Court over President Barack Obama’s signature health care law, justices seemed skeptical Monday about arguments that they have no authority to decide the key issues now. Eight of the nine justices put challenging questions to Robert Long, the lawyer who argued for postponing a decision on the case.

That’s from Politico’s email after today’s hearing. It’s all downhill from here.

Interesting point here by Joel Kotkin, with regard to GOP Presidential candidate Rick Santorum’s recent pitch to rural voters …

Plains towns like Grand Island, Nebraska, are filling up with Mexican or Honduran restaurants. The percentage of foreign-born Nebraskans has more than tripled since 1990. The GOP electorate in the Cornhusker State may be overwhelmingly white, but the demographic trends suggest this won’t always be the case—so long as the party can avoid alienating these new arrivals.

In many places Hispanics constitute the major counterforce to wholesale depopulation. Every county except one in the western half of Kansas suffered depopulation of non-Hispanic whites during the past decade, while Hispanics have offset or even exceeded the decline in white population—filling schools and opening businesses in the process. Hispanic residents have pushed from hubs like nearby Dodge City, Garden City, and Liberal into ever smaller communities, buying property on the cheap, enticed, many say, by the opportunity to live quiet lives in communities more similar to those in which they were raised.

Of course many people—notably some of the older white voters flocking to Santorum—are hostile to these realities. And in the short run, appealing to anti-immigrant sentiments may pay off in the Republican primary. But over time, if they are to survive, many rural communities will either adjust to diversity or simply disappear.

I’m less certain that the political punishment of this approach is as close as Joel and other demographers suggest. Changing demographics don’t necessarily equate with a changing electorate. And the fact that demographic majorities may approach a tipping point, the lag time in an electoral majority approaching a similar point can still be a generation or so away.

An interesting snapshot here of demographic change at NYC’s PS 295 Parent-Teacher Association. In particular, it seems amazing how much of the issue can be distilled into a simple doubling of the price of a cupcake.

… [I]n a neighborhood whose median household income leaped to $60,184 in 2010 from $34,878 a decade before, the change generated unexpected ire, pitting cash-short parents against volunteer bakers, and dividing a flummoxed PTA executive board, where wealthier newcomers to the school serve alongside poorer immigrants who have called the area home for years.

“A lot of people felt like they really needed to be heard on this,” recalled Dan Janzen, a mild-mannered freelance copywriter with children in first and third grades who leads the school’s development committee and devised the price increase.

One mother expressed dismay at being blindsided, while others said they were worried about those at the school without a dollar to spare. Ultimately, the PTA meeting at which the issue came to a head was adjourned without a resolution.

Such fracases are increasingly common at schools like P.S. 295, where changing demographics can cause culture clashes. PTA leaders are often caught between trying to get as much as possible from parents of means without alienating lower-income families.

Sometimes, the battles are over who should lead the PTA itself: many of the gentrifiers bring professional skills and different ideas of how to get things done, while those who improved the school enough to attract them become guardians of its traditions.

It suddenly seems quaint to think of demographic culture clashes as instances of old-guard Anglos being displaced by minorities. But it also happens in areas where the reverse is happening. And it’s not just the rednecks, bubbas, and working class stiffs that act as the foil. The multi-degreed information worker serves as a useful substitute these days.

During band setup, the first question mark for the evening was when the setlist taped to the stage didn’t have a single tune from the albums that the two artists did together. They did perform “Lovers Sinfony” from a more recent collaboration on Schenker’s “Temple of Rock” release. But still … the omissions are curious and I’ve not seen much in the way of explanation anywhere.

Regardless, McAuley’s voice was impressive given the years since he was at his peak. And if Schenker missed a note anywhere, it would be news to me. Among the fascinating things you learn from live shows, though, is that McAuley’s vocal mix was aided by a pretty good amount of echo the whole night and that Schenker is still rolling it out with vintage amps and pedals even if he is using Dean guitars instead of the more classic Gibson Flying V. A lot of the harmonies for Schenker were played on keyboard by the resident guitar/keys/bg vocal band member. That was a fairly minimal downer for my taste.

The show was pretty much everything short of a vintage Gary Barden on vocals for any UFO or early MSG fan. There were even a few of the early Scorpions tunes thrown in for good measure. The old guys on stage may not have looked as limber as they were back in their prime, but who goes to these shows for stage acrobatics anymore? I’ve never been a “completist” when it came to Schenker’s work back in the day. I had all of one UFO album and didn’t really get into him until Guitar for the Practicing Musician transcribed “Bijou Pleasurette.” I may want to try that one again since I’m having a lot more fun playing harmony parts these days. Schenker is basically the bridge between the Trower-era guitar hero and the Yngwie Malmsteen era of guitar heroes. Listening to a 100-minute set certainly helps me appreciate the span that he covers.

It also helps me realize who it is I’ve been trying to rip off on a lot of my more recent playing. Bottom line: it seems to be either “Blow by Blow” era Jeff Beck or 80s Michael Schenker. I’m totally fine with that. And I still owe it to myself to spend some quality time with the guitar trying out a few things seen last night.

For the uninitiated, here are two references for your enjoyment …

Classic Schenker Era:

McAuley Schenker Era:

» TX Redistricting: DOJ rejects Texas’ voter ID law
» Chron: Justice Department rejects Texas’ voter ID law
» TX Tribune: Feds Reject Texas Voter ID Law
» Chron: Texas’ contested voter ID law could shave voter rolls
Sorta big news. Now to see what happens with the state’s pushback efforts. Whether this case does anything to chip away at Section 5 remains to be seen. But it’s a given that Section 5 will get a day in court in front of the GOP-controlled Supreme Court.

» Pew: Romney Leads GOP Contest, Trails in Matchup with Obama
Time to start taking the head-to-head comparisons against Obama more seriously. And, already, they seem to show a mixture of results. ABC/Washington Post had Obama losing to both Romney & Santorum. This one has Obama leading. It could be a tough election to read, which I think is good business for Nate Silver.

» Education Next: Obama’s Education Record
… and also time for assessment of Obama’s record.

» Washington Post: Mitt Romney’s dog-on-the-car-roof story still proves to be his critics’ best friend
I’m not going to lie – I see this as a big character issue. All of my family’s bassets rode inside. Sometimes in the driver’s seat. Always with tongue flailing in the wind of an open window. It’s how God intended dogs to ride.

» NY Review of Books: Our Corrupt Politics: It’s Not All Money
An interesting take on the impact of money in politics toward votes in the legislature. It’s not totally counter to the proposition that Mark Green raised in “Who Owns Congress”, but there’s still some room between Green and Chait to fill in. Who knows – if time ever permits, I may have to revisit my old 1988 thesis on campaign finance reform.

» NY Times: When States Put Out the Unwelcome Mat
» NewsTaco: West Texas Miracle Producing Future Latino Leaders
» MSNBC: Racist? Texas high school apologizes for fans’ ‘USA!’ chant after basketball game
» TX Tribune: Claudia Kolker: The TT Interview
A small gaggle of signposts and otherwise interesting reading on how the modern era of Hispanic demographics is different than before.

» TechPresident: Sean Parker: New Technology Can Diminish The Dominance Of Money In Politics
Put me on the fence with this one, I suppose. I’m not seeing online tools diminish the importance of money so far. For the most part, most of the online tools are an add-on rather than a substitute. Certainly, having the voter file online is a nice substitute and could theoretically be seen as a cost saver. But it usually helps to have an expert user to go along with that tool since not every 70-yr old grandma can operate VAN. Until there’s a success story about costs being saved due to online tools, I’m the skeptic.

» Media Decoder: After 244 Years, Encyclopaedia Britannica Stops the Presses
This is a sad, yet highly predictable day. There were three major timekillers that I usually had at my disposal during college: looking up old election stats and mapping county maps for Senate/Governor elections around the nation (try not to act surprised); digging through the magazine archives on topics I would have not otherwise studied (for some reason, I recall a lot of medical journal and anthropology reading); and picking up a random EB to pick a random topic to read up on. They’re clearly the most well-written encyclopedias known to man. I may have to pick up a stray single copy from a thrift store now just to be able to prove that such a thing existed to future generations.

» Washington Post: In Iraq, growing gap sets Kurdistan apart
Interesting reading, in and of itself. At church, we also heard news of a tragic event from a couple of missionaries from our community. Given the rush to classify this as a standard-issue Muslim vs Christian war, it’s heartening to know that there’s some peacefulness that comes from this one. That the overall story seems to represent an isolated incident within the broader relative peacefulness that seems to exist in Kurdistan.

» NY Times: How India Became America
Behold, the last Starbucks-free refuge now seems on the verge of being over-run.

» ESPN: NFL Nation – Peyton Manning tag
In case you didn’t know what the single biggest sports story was. I’m just relieved that the Arizona Cardinals seem to be out of consideration. The second biggest free agency news seems to be that Texans’ DE Mario Williams is being wooed by Buffalo.

» Star-Telegram: Coincidence? Former Trinity HS QB signed by Colts, one day after they cut Manning
I’m biased, but I can totally see Trevor Vittatoe as Manning’s replacement. More seriously, I’m sure this is nothing more than a placeholder move. There’s been a small amount of interesting reading on the life that roster-filler type players go through. Basically – you sign for a few days to a team and bounce around among a number of different teams during a season. All that for roughly $15-20k if you’re lucky. Any there’s nothing to suggest that a good warehouse job that understands your situation wouldn’t be a bad thing to have. Oh, and stay in peak shape the whole time. If you’re lucky, an Arena Football League or UFL gig will open up for better stability as a professional athlete. Not exactly the most glamorous thing in the world.

Kuff catches one that I missed …

David Thompson and his colleagues at ttweak are best-known for their work on the quirky “Houston – It’s Worth It” campaign, paying homage to the yawning potholes, soul-sapping humidity and all the other things that help to define the sprawling city.

But they may have found the quintessential symbol of Houston in the star of their new film, “Interesting Times: Tracking Houston’s Transformations Through 30 Years of Surveys.”

From the looks of it, Discovery Green on April 27th is the next best opportunity to catch the flick.

Nice to know that the DOJ isn’t totally taking a pass at county-level redistricting …

The justice department found fault with the county’s redistricting process. The process did not set out clear criteria to follow, redrew a commissioners precinct map that put the Bolivar Peninsula into the traditionally minority Precinct 3 and minority representation of voters took a step back under the county’s plan.

The justice department also found fault with the county’s desire to reduce the number of justice of the peace and constable precincts from eight to five.

In doing so, the justice department said, the county reduced the number of precincts where “minority voters possess the ability to elect candidates of choice” from three to just one.

The GDN story notes that two counties in Texas have had their commissioners court plans nixed by DOJ.

[Galveston County Judge] Henry too called the rejection, “an (President Barack) Obama administration’s continuing attack on Texas.”

The only other county in the state to have its redistricting maps rejected, Henry said, was Nueces County.

“What do Nueces County and Galveston County have in common?” he asked. “They both went from Democratic control to Republican control in the 2010 election.”

They were also both represented by former State Rep. Joe Nixon. So there ya go.

US Congress - District 9
-------------------------------------
Kaptur, Marcy (D)     56.44%   42,462
Kucinich, Dennis (D)  39.74%   29,899
Veysey, Graham (D)     3.82%    2,876

This was about as expected after redistricting created this district with a heavy tilt toward Kaptur’s previous district. Kaptur now has the privilege of defeating Joe the Plumber in November.

US Congress - District 2
-------------------------------------
Wenstrup, Brad (R)    48.79%   42,209
Schmidt, Jean (R)     42.76%   36,988
Brush, Tony (R)        4.90%    4,242
Kundrata, Fred (R)     3.43%    2,967
Green, Joe (R)         0.11%       98

This, on the other hand, was a bit more of a surprise. Looks like that infamous ball finally came back to attack Schmidt. Plurality wins in Ohio. No runoffs. The Cincy Post has the overview of this one.

For whatever coincidence its worth, Schmidt’s successor in the State House (Joe Ueker) also had a close call, winning 42.35% to 42.04% – a margin of 131 votes out of over 40,000 cast.

More research on the local demographics …

The Houston region is now the most ethnically diverse large metropolitan area in the country, surpassing New York City.

Two suburbs – Missouri City and Pearland – have become even more diverse than the city of Houston. Other suburbs aren’t far behind.

These findings are from a report released Monday by Rice University researchers, based on an analysis of census data from 1990, 2000 and 2010.

“We are a little United Nations,” Pearland Mayor Tom Reid said. “You go to one of our neighborhoods, and there will be a person from Nigeria living next to somebody from India, living next to somebody from Mexico and somebody from Louisiana.”

The report also found that while residential segregation has dropped over the past 20 years, it remains highest within the city of Houston; most suburban neighborhoods are less racially segregated.

You can dig through the Kinder Institute report here or just take in the overview video it here:

I’m curious how some other locations track with this. I’d have to think that there would be some similarities in Los Angeles, at a minimum. Obviously, some of what leads to remnant segregation of Houstonians is that you have major parts of town fully developed and that have had multiple generations living in close proximity. So it seems logical that some areas of Third Ward and River Oaks would remain as they are. And as you build up undeveloped areas around those parts of town, the pool of buyers is generally going to be more diverse. That’s why you see pockets of Hispanic neighborhoods near Katy and newer Asian home-buyers filling in the area between Alief and Sugar Land, as well as between Alief and Willowbrook Mall. The fact that there was plenty of open space to develop creates this, in other words.

How this compares to Chicago, New York, or other major cities where I’m less sure that you’ll see something comparable would be something that warrants a bit more study. If only to satisfy my curiosity. That Harris County, as a whole, has gone through a rapid pace of diversification is something that obviously fits well within my wheelhouse. For a visual, there’s always this time-series of demographic maps that I tend to rely on for making the argument easily understandable.

And as an additional reminder, there’s this snapshot of SW Harris County done with my standard-issue demographic color-coding down to the Census block level:

This, in short, shows the pattern of multicultural blocks (yellow) outside the city, but the remnant homogeneous areas within the city (red/Anglo, brown/Hispanic, black/Afr-Am). As a point of emphasis, this demonstrates that it’s not just the larger aggregates of population that are settling in different ways. Block level aggregates are generally as small as 8-12 houses. Seeing a mix of population with no distinct majority living that closely together is something we’ll definitely be seeing more of in the future.

Nice to see some reporting on this sorta thing …

The Rio operations center, which opened at the end of 2010, is part of an effort to gain a toehold in a market with more established players like Cisco Systems. (Cisco calls its local government initiative “Smart+Connected Communities.” The company is heavily involved in the Songdo International Business District, a new city in South Korea, where Cisco’s network technologies help commercial buildings control energy consumption, for example.)

But even for a company like I.B.M., Rio represents a grand challenge. A horizontal city sprawled between mountains and the Atlantic Ocean, it is at once a boomtown, a beach town, a paradise, an eyesore, a research center and a construction site. Oil-industry giants like Halliburton and Schlumberger have been rushing to build research centers here to help develop massive oil and gas fields off the coast.

Special police units have moved into about 20 slums, called favelas, in an effort to assert government control and combat crime. Rio is also reconstructing major arenas and building a rapid-bus system ahead of the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics.

This is a city where some of the rich live in gated communities while some of the poor in the favelas pirate electricity from the grid. And where disasters, natural and otherwise, sometimes strike. Rainstorms can cause deadly landslides. Last year, a historic streetcar derailed, killing five people. Earlier this year, three buildings collapsed downtown, killing at least 17.

The complex conditions create a kind of hothouse for I.B.M. to expand its local government business. If the company can remake Rio as a smarter city, it can remake anywhere.

Ideally, you’d see many of the data streams that a city has available open to the public, where solutions such as these could come from any number of places. I have my old-school qualms about anything IBM does being far less than open-source friendly, but if it helps nudge things toward a freer system of information-sharing, then all the better.

Most impressive of all from this article – to me, at least – is the price tag: $14M. That strikes me as relatively affordable given what a system like this is capable of adding to the productive value of government entities. The biggest thing missing from this story, however, is some sort of read on what it means to people outside of City Hall in Rio. In theory, you can send twitter updates to people about emergencies on a dedicated 311-style twitter account. But if there aren’t any followers, what good does it do you? So while its interesting how the system responded to a building collapse, it’d be more interesting to see what the real-world impact was among people on the outside of this story.

» National Journal: On Immigration and Autos, GOP Candidates Collide With GOP Voters (Ron Brownstein)

» Washington Post: In Frederick, English language law sows conflict amid Hispanic immigrant boom

» The Atlantic: Why Does Rush Limbaugh Get Away With Calling a Young Woman a ‘Slut’? (Conor Friedersdorf)

» Washington Post: Bristol Palin lands a reality TV show

» NY Times: Theocracy and Its Discontents

» Grantland: A Question of Identity

» Oversigning: Tulane University Law School Tackles the Oversigning Issue

» NY Times: Mapping the N.B.A.
Sports as geography. There’s nothing to not love about that. I’d love to see this for football, personally. I’m curious to see some sabermetrics for teams pinned deep in their own territory. Better to lob hail marys from the 1? … or let the running back grind it out for a few extra yards?

» Washington Post: Home designs target non-traditional families

Demographics for ya …

The houses that appealed to the home builders’ bread and butter clientele for 50 years — mom, dad and two kids — may suit the 20 percent of households who still fit this description, but the other 80 percent, including single adults, married couples with no kids, families headed by single parents, step families and multi-generation households, are looking for something different.

» Galveston Daily News: Where should these folks live?

… and another point about real estate and demography.

» Smithsonian Magazine: The Hidden History of a Rock ’n’ Roll Hitmaker

And last, but not least …

» NY Times: How Graffiti Goats Became a Symbol of … Something

The stuff that matters for Harris County is as follows:

- Three competitive district: HD137 (really more of just an open seat than it is competitive for the General), HD144, HD149. HD134 is just after each of those in terms of competitiveness. I know that there’s an enormous core of activists from that area who will likely itch to see the seat go Dem again. As drawn, I think it’s just going to be tantalizingly out-of-reach for the decade … barring any kind of scandal, of course.

- The real losses in the region seem to be as follows: HD26 retains the Charlie Howard water faucet and hence remains prohibitively Republican.

- On taking the good with the bad: So I’ve been re-drawn into House District 137, as they’ve added more of Gulfton. I’ll happily be voting for Gene Wu in the primary. But I’m also drawn into Congressional District 7. Ya know, because all them Gulfton Hispanics really have a lot in common with Hedwig Village and Jersey Village. Draw your own landscaping/nanny/housekeeper jokes. But I don’t see any of those Village folks dining at the China Star Buffet or any of the numerous and wonderful taquerias in my neighborhood. CD7 starts the decade as 58.7%-40.4% McCain-Obama. We’ll see if the numbers move any during the decade.

- Southeast Texas’ CD14 remains pretty much as-is/was. It hasn’t changed dramatically since the Lege passed their version of the district. Which means good things for Nick Lampson. The average Dem in both Federal and State races in 2008 got 47% in the district. And none of those candidates polled like Lampson has in Jefferson County. I traveled to the Texas City and Beaumont leg of the Campaign Kickoff on Monday and the crowds at both were impressive. Kuff riffs off of the Chronicle’s report on the Texas City event.

- Two long-distance district to note. First, the I-35 district (conveniently enumerated as CD35) that covers part of south San Antonio and SE Austin. I’m assuming Doggett runs there for the time being. We know that the Bexar County Tax-Assessor, Sylvia Romo, is running. And we have no word on Ciro Rodriguez, but I don’t see him challenging Doggett. I’ll refer you back to the post I did with the primary numbers when we had the Lege’s iteration of the district. Doggett may gain a bit by not having to run against a better-known candidate, even if Romo’s nothing to sneeze at. But given the fact that no Anglo candidate has ever beaten a Hispanic candidate in the prior version, I’d expect to see a similarly tough road for Doggett with this district as well.

- Secondly, CD33 in the DFW Metroplex. It’s definitely an ugly duck in terms of geography and demographics. But anything that undoes the single biggest injustice of the 2003 map is progress. No client work going on there, but I’m a fan of State Rep. Marc Veasey. It could get real interesting if a strong Hispanic candidate from Dallas gets in, though.

- For anything else concerning this phase of redistricting, you’re just not doing it right unless you read Michael Li’s blog. I’ve got all the raw data hacked for the Almanac and offer no guarantees for how soon before I have the pages updated for each.