Greg's Opinion Greg's big blog of whatnot

28Sep/120

State of the Race: 38 Days Out

Since I posted this summary at the conclusion of the Democratic convention, I thought I'd update it to see how the battleground states have changed, if any. Judge for yourself ...

Eastern Time Zone          SEPTEMBER 28                  SEPTEMBER 7
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Pennsylvania    [↑1.1]  53.5 - 45.3 (Obama +8.2)    52.9 - 45.8 (Obama +7.1)
Virginia        [↑0.2]  51.1 - 47.9 (Obama +3.2)    51.5 - 48.5 (Obama +3.0)
North Carolina  [↑0.3]  49.2 - 50.1 (Obama -0.9)    48.9 - 50.1 (Obama -1.2)
New Hampshire   [↓0.7]  52.4 - 46.7 (Obama +5.7)    53.2 - 46.8 (Obama +6.4)
Florida         [↑0.6]  50.9 - 48.5 (Obama +2.4)    50.5 - 48.7 (Obama +1.8)
Ohio            [↑1.6]  51.7 - 47.0 (Obama +4.7)    50.8 - 47.7 (Obama +3.1)

Central Time Zone          SEPTEMBER 28                  SEPTEMBER 7
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Wisconsin       [↑1.3]  52.7 - 46.5 (Obama +6.2)    52.0 - 47.1 (Obama +4.9)
Iowa            [↑0.1]  51.2 - 47.5 (Obama +3.7)    51.8 - 48.2 (Obama +3.6)

Mountain Time Zone         SEPTEMBER 28                  SEPTEMBER 7
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Colorado        [→0.0]  51.2 - 47.8 (Obama +3.4)    51.1 - 47.7 (Obama +3.4)
Nevada          [↓0.7]  51.6 - 47.1 (Obama +4.5)    52.0 - 46.8 (Obama +5.2)

Nate Silver doesn't categorize Pennsylvania as a competitive state and I think the logic is understandable. For my part, I throw it in just to see what movement exists there and also to make it easier to have those datapoints handy if we see any negative impact from the state's new Voter ID law.

I'm more doubtful of New Hampshire holding firm as an Obama state due to it's status as a border state with workers who have some recollection of Romney's time as Governor of Massachusetts. While I definitely think North Carolina is the toughest hold of the East Coast states and Florida & Ohio being perpetually purple in their swing status (stati?), I think NH ranks right behind those in terms of defensive zones for Team Obama. Maybe it moves more in the coming weeks, maybe it doesn't. But I think it should be among the more volatile. Same goes for Nevada in the other time zones. And I'm not one to rule out Iowa as a possibility for more movement south for Obama.

All things considered, here's where Nate scores the current state of the race ...

And just for good humor, the other side has now done what I think could only be expected: invented new numbers. This enthuses Rick Perry, of course. Guess he can forgo any plans to run in 2016 now. Amazing how a worldview so predicated on Randian objectivism can become so post-modern in their subjective interpretation of truth.

For my part, this is my speculative guess at what the map would look like if the election were held this week.

ADD-ON: Former Vermont Governor and 1988 Presidential aspirant, Pete DuPont, serves up the latest of many GOP talking-point fests proclaiming how the polls can't be believed. I'm sure they all concluded this point on their own. Independently.

Or not.

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