One final take on Early Vote numbers now that all of the data is available.

Based on every available metric I’m seeing, the opening bell for Harris County should be as close as close gets. That will take into consideration both Early In-Person and Mail-In ballots. It almost goes without saying that this comes down to how successful each side is on E-Day. Almost, because in 2008, it was over by this time.

For some light historical context, here is how the last two Presidential cycles performed at each phase of the election …

2008
               MAIL             EARLY            E-DAY             TOTAL
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
McCain ...... 41,986 (62.72%)  297,944 (44.49%)  231,953 (53.35%)    571,883 (48.82%)
Obama ....... 24,503 (36.60%)  368,231 (54.98%)  198,248 (45.59%)    590,982 (50.45%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Vote .. 66,941           669,720           434,811           1,171,472

E-Day to Early Difference: -9.39 Dem

2004
               MAIL             EARLY            E-DAY             TOTAL
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bush   ...... 29,926 (63.36%)  226,295 (55.90%)  328,502 (53.34%)    584,723 (54.75%)
Kerry ....... 17,010 (36.01%)  176,523 (43.60%)  282,332 (45.84%)    475,865 (44.56%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Vote .. 47,233           404,846           615,909           1,067,988

E-Day to Early Difference: +2.24 Dem

Whether you believe E-Day bodes well for you depends on whether you think the new normal will look like 2008, when Dems banked two-thirds of their vote before Election Day … or just about every year prior to 2008, when Dems typically got a little bit of a boost on E-Day.

By all appearances, the GOP did a better job this cycle of catching up and even surpassing Dems in EV GOTV. But for all that improvement, the game is still essentially tied going into the 9th inning.

I’ll be freer to get into the weeds with what the Early Vote numbers suggest for the opening bell after 7pm on Tuesday. For now, there’s work to be done. Hope you’re having a saner weekend wherever you are.

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