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7Mar/143

2014 GOP Primary Results: Lt. Gov, Attorney General, Comptroller

After an evening of spinning some new code, the mapping results are in. I've started with three of the most interesting results - all GOP primaries: Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and Comptroller. I'll get to the less interesting primaries over the weekend.

Since these were multi-candidate fields that are a challenge to show meaningfully on one map, I basically had the maps done to show the strength of support for individual candidates. Dan Patrick's showing for Lt. Governor is below. If you download any of the Google Earth files, you'll get an expandable folder for each of the candidates, so you can alternate a view from Dewhurst-to-Patrick or Branch-to-Paxton. Trust me, it's more fun than that sounds like.

The color coding is as follows:
- Dark Red - 50% or more for Patrick
- Red - 35-50% for Patrick
- Orange - 20-35% for Patrick
- Yellow - Under 20% for Patrick

It's worth pointing out that the background colors on Google Maps makes Montgomery and Harris county stand out a little darker than they should. After all the tweaking I did on code and color-coding, I'm willing to hurl my shoulders up in a big fit of "Meh!" over it. Apologies if it confuses anyone.


» full page

Google Earth Files:
» Lt. Governor's Race
» Attorney General's Race
» Comptroller's Race

A few things that jump out from looking at the cartography:

- Dan Patrick will be the GOP nominee - and presumptive Lt. Governor in 2015. That's fairly evident from the simple math of Election Night. The cartography doesn't make it as obvious, however. But when you factor in the big counties, the big media markets, and Patrick's strength in the biggest among them ... it sure looks like a dead cinch lock. In the Top 10 counties by Total Vote in the primary, Dan Patrick got a pure majority: 50.3% to Dewhurst's 23.9%. Working the math a bit more, Patrick's showing in Counties #11-254 were much closer: 34.5% to Dewhurst's 31.8%. The Top 10 counties accounted for 44% of the vote in the primary, while the other 244 accounted for 56%. If the results were a bit more binary - that is to say, if Dewhurst was just killing it and led Patrick in the non-Top 10, then this might be a more interesting runoff. Instead, it's Dewhurst's funeral procession.

- Looking at the rest of the Lt. Gov maps, Todd Staples' strength in East Texas is as impressive as Jerry Patterson's vanishing act in Brazoria and Galveston counties. Both were areas represented in previous State Senate seats. Obviously, Patterson is further removed from his time in the State Senate. But still.

- The Attorney General map is a bit difficult to read, but all you need to know is Dallas County, where Paxton beat Branch among the two local candidates: 44.3% to 43.6%. Paxton will possibly try to get the most traction out of the Dan Patrick vote in the runoff. Branch may end up with more money to do his best impersonation of a crazy rightwinger, though. Consider it the more interesting runoff to watch.

- As for the Comptroller's map, I'll simply note that Glenn Hegar's map is pretty much what Dan Patrick probably hopes to see for his runoff. For Hilderbran's part, he had a good showing in his State Rep district, but it's pretty clear why it's better to be 1 of 31 rather than 1 of 150 in this case. Medina's limited showing should probably be a go-to resource for the next reporter who considers her a queen of anything. And Torres' map is sure to become the next MSM narrative on why the Texas GOP will have problems in the valley. Right?

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Comments (3) Trackbacks (0)
  1. I feel like you’re teasing me by holding back the Dem U.S. Senate maps 😉

  2. All in due time. 😉

  3. I feel like now you are just playing with my cartographymotions. 😉


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