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4-wk sprint: Early Voting Counts Begin

A quick update on Harris County numbers. The chart below includes two days of in-person Early Voting and the mail ballots through Yesterday. The first two days of in-person voting amounted to National Republicans #&*@^!$ Vote Day, with the daily scores for each day being around 41% Dem. The Mail Ballot lead is propping the countywide numbers up for now. From 2012, I recall that we only experienced a clear win on Saturday of Early Voting and much of the second week being a draw. Still, I don't think we were climbing out of a 46% hole back then. So this is the time when we see what the floor looks like for Dems in the County. Once we see what Saturday brings, we'll have a decidedly clearer picture.

The chart below also shows how many votes are cast (Mail and EV combined) in each House District. At some point by the second week, I'll work on a better way to show the numbers. For now, "time constraint" is the operative term.

HD      Votes  DEM Support
County 82,056    45.99% 
126     4,232    27.7% 
127     4,890    26.0% 
128     3,961    28.9% 
129     4,867    32.1% 
130     4,573    21.8% 
131     2,879    79.6% 
132     3,574    32.1% 
133     6,314    24.6% 
134     5,749    39.6% 
135     2,726    34.2% 
137     1,454    50.9% 
138     3,227    31.8% 
139     3,358    74.0% 
140     1,450    73.3% 
141     2,669    84.1% 
142     2,761    80.1% 
143     2,076    70.1% 
144     2,097    53.7% 
145     1,871    58.4% 
146     3,875    75.8% 
147     3,766    80.3% 
148     2,587    60.6% 
149     2,700    48.0% 
150     4,400    25.1% 

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  1. Numbers I’ve found or figured say 2010 absentee was 57%R/42%D, and this year the number of mail ballots sent out at the behest of known R orgs was a tiny bit below mail ballots of Dem org origins. If D and R mail ballots are returned at roughly the same rate, we’re relatively way ahead – and if Dems are only at 46% after THEIR TWO WORST DAYS – when the 2010 EV came in at 52%R/47%D – and all the D’s best days are ahead – we should be celebrating! What am I missing? or is it you just don’t want to offend the gods by presuming victory too soon?

  2. The amounts in the individual columns may change. But the algebra doesn’t. See the more recent posts for why. The mail ballot program has definitely succeeded in bringing in some new, non-Presidential voters. But the biggest impact has been to take some voters out of the EV-In-Person column. I do expect the second week to be better. But we’re still at 46% after the first seven days. And assuming that the E-Day voter pool hasn’t been altered too much, we’re close to being in a hole that’s impossible to dig out of on Election Day. Still a small amount of hope for a small comeback that could make everything competitive, but I think the best bet now is to see a few crossover wins here and there. Hope I’m wrong and the gods are appeased. But I’d be more hopeful if we were around 47-49% on the EV scores.

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