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29Oct/151

2015 Early Voting Turnout by Neighborhood (through Wednesday)

Truth be told, I hate being called "a numbers guy." Stuff like this probably won't help that. What you have below are some selected neighborhoods, with precincts indicated in case anyone wants to proof my work. The column headers are as follows:

15EVTO% - turnout for Early Voting through Wednesday
13EVTO% - turnout for Early Vote for the entire 2013 election
13TO% - total turnout - including Election Day - for the 2013 election

This gives you a bit of context for how much growth (or not) there is in particular neighborhoods. Below that listing is an effort to normalize these numbers and show an index comparing 2013 Early Vote totals to the 2015 Early Vote total to date. Any number over 1 means they've surpassed their 2013 Early Votes, for instance. Obviously, you see a pretty good showing in Anglo GOP areas. It may remain to be seen whether one area is shifting their vote more toward Early Voting, but I'm a skeptic of that. We'll see soon enough what it all means, but enjoy the fancy numbers so far. I'll update once all Early Voters are reported.

Correction: Thought I was looking at through-Wednesday totals earlier. I wasn't. Numbers below are updated to reflect actual through-Wed totals.

========================================================
Neighborhood   15EVTO%   13EVTO%  13TO%  (Precincts)
========================================================

African-American Neighborhoods
--------------------------------------------------------
Southside AfrAm   9.7%     9.3%   18.9%  (31,140,180,219,863)
Northwest AfrAm  12.4%     9.6%   18.1%  (109,157,365,576)
Fifth Ward        8.9%     7.4%   16.2%  (138,144,186,406)
Hiram Clarke     10.2%     9.0%   17.8%  (216,286,292,318,542)

Hispanic/Latino Neighborhoods
--------------------------------------------------------
Lindale           8.7%     7.2%   16.4%  (46,78,196,207,637,846)
East End          6.2%     6.3%   15.2%  (11,64,69,72,218,530)

Anglo GOP Neighborhoods
--------------------------------------------------------
Kingwood         18.7%    11.8%   22.5%  (469,563,590,612,760)
Clear Lake       12.3%    11.6%   24.3%  (473,728,732,744,745)
West             14.3%    11.8%   27.1%  (130,356,437,438,492,499)

Anglo Dem/Swing Neighborhoods
--------------------------------------------------------
Sharpstown        9.9%     9.3%   19.9%  (256,296,297,311,426)
Meyerland        10.6%    12.5%   34.6%  (14,146,176,281,293,403)
Heights - C       9.0%     8.8%   25.3%  (53,57,58,501)
Montrose         12.3%    11.5%   27.6%  (34,37,39,60)

Indexed Early Voting Results

African-American Neighborhoods
-----------------------------
Southside AfrAm  1.042
Northwest AfrAm  1.294
Fifth Ward       1.193
Hiram Clarke     1.139


Hispanic/Latino Neighborhoods
-----------------------------
Lindale          1.214
East End         0.991

Anglo GOP Neighborhoods
-----------------------------
Kingwood         1.582
Clear Lake       1.060
West             1.217

Anglo Dem/Swing Neighborhoods
-----------------------------
Sharpstown       1.067
Meyerland        0.851
Heights - C      1.023
Montrose         1.070

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  1. I suspect there is no disrespect intended if people call you a ‘numbers guy’. It means you actually have command of data and then informed opinions on what the data indicate, as opposed to just crazy, unsubstantiated claims that cannot be replicated. We need to be more data driven on what has worked and will can work in the future.


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