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Aggreblogging in the Raw

February 18, 2013 Politics-2013 No Comments

Just pure, raw linkage this time. A few of these, I may come back to at some point during the week. But for now … read ‘em yourself. Committee hearings are picking up here in Austin, so there’s much fear and loathing to contend with. Reminds me: why is it that Hunter S. Thompson never thought to cover the Texas Legislature?

» Huffington Post: University Of Texas, Rick Perry Clash Over Future Of Public Higher Education

» NY Times: Fears of the Future Haunt a Budding Generation of Afghan Strivers

» NY Times: Slower Growth of Health Costs Eases U.S. Deficit

» TNR: Original Sin: Why the GOP is and will continue to be the party of white people

» Inside Higher Ed: Questions on Debit Cards

» Atlanta Journal-Constitution: The “Me” Curriculum at the DOE: Why we need to stop telling students “Narrative writing is all about me.”

» Washington Post: Why introverts shouldn’t be forced to talk in class

» EducationNext: Solving America’s Math Problem
» EducationNext: A Double Dose of Algebra

» Chron: School district, others owe Valero nearly $5 million

» Atlas Project: Changing demographics in Georgia could give Democrats a chance in the deep south

» NY Times: Voting Rights Act Is Challenged as Cure the South Has Outgrown

» Politico: Lone Star Rising

» The Atlantic: Obama’s LBJ Moment: The War on Inequality Is the New ‘War on Poverty’

» NY Times Magazine: Can the Republicans Be Saved From Obsolescence? (Robert Draper)

State of the Race: One Week Out

October 30, 2012 Politics-2012 No Comments

My final call …

I don’t like to wuss out by calling three states “tossups” (NH, VA, CO), but the fact that Obama losing all three wouldn’t impact his ability to win gives me an out in this case. In the case of NH, I belive it’s the safest for Obama, but I’m suspicious that if polling has failed to detect a few points worth of votes that may exist for Romney due to the economy, then the state neighboring where Romney served as Governor might be the first canary in that coal mine. Virginia and Colorado are legitimately more narrow in polling ranges. If forced to pick, I’d probably throw VA to Romney and CO to Obama. That would put my “no tossup” math at 290-248 Obama.

The changes in 538′s data since the last check-in …

Eastern Time Zone            OCTOBER 30                 OCTOBER 17
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Pennsylvania    [+0.2]  51.9 - 47.0 (Obama +4.9)   51.8 - 47.1 (Obama +4.7)
Virginia        [+0.8]  50.0 - 49.4 (Obama +0.6)   49.5 - 49.7 (Obama -0.2)
North Carolina  [+1.1]  48.3 - 51.1 (Obama -2.8)   47.7 - 51.6 (Obama -3.9)
New Hampshire   [-0.1]  50.8 - 48.5 (Obama +2.3)   50.8 - 48.4 (Obama +2.4)
Florida         [+0.4]  49.1 - 50.3 (Obama -1.2)   48.9 - 50.5 (Obama -1.6)
Ohio            [+0.2]  50.5 - 48.4 (Obama +2.1)   50.3 - 48.4 (Obama +1.9)   

Central Time Zone            OCTOBER 30                 OCTOBER 17
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Wisconsin       [+1.0]  51.6 - 47.8 (Obama +3.8)   51.1 - 48.3 (Obama +2.8)
Iowa            [+0.8]  50.7 - 48.5 (Obama +2.2)   50.2 - 48.8 (Obama +1.4)

Mountain Time Zone           OCTOBER 30                 OCTOBER 17
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Colorado        [+0.5]  49.8 - 49.2 (Obama +0.6)   49.5 - 49.4 (Obama +0.1)
Nevada          [+1.1]  51.0 - 48.1 (Obama +2.9)   50.3 - 48.5 (Obama +1.8) 

If Obama wins Virginia, big night for Dems. If Obama pulls off an upset in Florida, game over. If Romney wins New Hampshire, cross your fingers and keep a close eye on Ohio for the rest of the night.

I’ll be focused on a much smaller speck of the map for this election. So mapping and poring over national data will wait quite a bit longer on my part.

A few other final, somewhat fearless predictions:

- TX-14: Lampson vs Weber … I think you can get away with just watching Jefferson County on this one. If Lampson passes the 60% hurdle, and there aren’t any wild turnout differences from years’ past, he can win this one. Obama won the county with 51% in 2008. Lampson, again, won 67% in 2004 – his last time to run there. If the world of Jefferson County – today – still has enough swing voters for Lampson, then there’ll be something good to be said about what Democrats in Texas accomplished.

- TX-23: Gallego vs Canseco … I have no feel for this one, but expect it to be as competitive as the district ever was from 2006 on. Just based on Gallego’s appeal outside of Bexar County, I’m optimistic about him pulling off the win. That should post the post-E-Day newsies enough to say something nice about Democrats in the state.

- SD10: Davis vs Shelton … I’ve been skeptical about Davis’ odds in a status quo district. But she’s run about as well as I can see from my distant corner of the state. Obviously, this one has a big impact on what legislation comes out of the Senate during the 2013 session in Austin. So I’ll hope beyond hope that Davis is successful.

Primary Mapping: Dem President

August 15, 2012 Politics-2012 No Comments

Picking up from yesterday’s map-related posts of Primary and Runoff election outcomes ….

The one big enchilada to look at from the May Democratic Primary was where any latent “Not Obama” vote may have been demonstrated. Kuff broke this down by House District when the news was a bit more timely. His take upon seeing the results was that much of the “Not Obama” vote may have corresponded to the “Bubba Vote”. Mine, looking at the very same results, was that I’d be quicker to suggest Hispanic voters not totally in love with Obama. There was also a comment suggesting that it may be most accurate to view these results against Total Ballots rather than Total Votes since it may demonstrate a few more “Not Obama” sources due to voters simply not wishing to cast vote. I will get around to that, but my early guess is that the results don’t change.

Obama won the county with 95.3%, so it took some code changes to highlight that vote. The color-coding was changed to the following:

dark-blue: Obama over 80%
light-blue: Obama over 50%
white: no votes

I believe there were 2 or 3 precincts where Obama did not win and I seem to recall all of them having less than 5 votes total, possibly as little as 1 or 2. The only respectable-sized box that stands out as being “Oklahoma-esque” for Obama results is Pct 531 along the Chambers County border. Obama won 27 of the 51 votes cast. Feel free to poke around at some of the light-blue boxes and see what your conclusion is.


full pageGoogle Earth

That’s the last one I’ve got for today. Not sure whether I’ll do the GOP Primary results next or edit some code to do some district races in the Dem Primary. Either way … more maps tomorrow and I’ll eventually get to them all.

Limited Appeal

March 19, 2012 Politics-2012 1 Comment

» Joel Kotkin: Rick Santorum’s Ugly Appeal To Rural Voters

Interesting point here by Joel Kotkin, with regard to GOP Presidential candidate Rick Santorum’s recent pitch to rural voters …

Plains towns like Grand Island, Nebraska, are filling up with Mexican or Honduran restaurants. The percentage of foreign-born Nebraskans has more than tripled since 1990. The GOP electorate in the Cornhusker State may be overwhelmingly white, but the demographic trends suggest this won’t always be the case—so long as the party can avoid alienating these new arrivals.

In many places Hispanics constitute the major counterforce to wholesale depopulation. Every county except one in the western half of Kansas suffered depopulation of non-Hispanic whites during the past decade, while Hispanics have offset or even exceeded the decline in white population—filling schools and opening businesses in the process. Hispanic residents have pushed from hubs like nearby Dodge City, Garden City, and Liberal into ever smaller communities, buying property on the cheap, enticed, many say, by the opportunity to live quiet lives in communities more similar to those in which they were raised.

Of course many people—notably some of the older white voters flocking to Santorum—are hostile to these realities. And in the short run, appealing to anti-immigrant sentiments may pay off in the Republican primary. But over time, if they are to survive, many rural communities will either adjust to diversity or simply disappear.

I’m less certain that the political punishment of this approach is as close as Joel and other demographers suggest. Changing demographics don’t necessarily equate with a changing electorate. And the fact that demographic majorities may approach a tipping point, the lag time in an electoral majority approaching a similar point can still be a generation or so away.

If Bruce Babbitt Can Win There …

February 27, 2012 Politics-2012 No Comments

» National Journal: A Desert Mirage

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before …

Arizona’s seismic demographic transformation is slowly turning a once deep-red state if not blue, then at least purple. In the past decade alone, Arizona added 600,000 Latinos to its population, according to the Census Bureau. The 46 percent growth rate in the Latino population accounted for half the state’s overall increase. In 2010, Hispanics were 30 percent of Arizona’s total population—an ominous trend for Republicans, because Hispanics vote nearly 2-to-1 nationally for Democrats. President Obama’s allies brag, in fact, that they could have won the state in 2008 if Arizona’s favorite son, Sen. John McCain, hadn’t been his opponent. As it was, Democrats kept McCain’s margin to single digits.

That helps explain why the Obama reelection campaign boasts about its hopes for the state.

Team Obama has obviously labelled Arizona as a target for expanding the map and the 2010 Census findings aren’t discouraging. Unfortunately, the Census findings were more-or-less reflected in the very same demographics that led to Obama getting 44.9% in 2008. Yes, John McCain – the popular Senator from Arizona – was also on the ballot. But its still not proven to be a state on the verge of swinging.

Furthermore, roughly 60% of the state’s vote comes from one county: Maricopa. The Presidential votes aren’t entirely suggestive that Obama can swing the big county …

1996 – Clinton: 44.5%
2000 – Gore: 42.8%
2004 – Kerry: 42.3%
2008 – Obama: 43.91%

For the other 40% of the state, Obama carried only 46.6% of the vote. Again, not entirely supportive. It would be easy to write Arizona off if that were all there were to the story. But there is more.

If there’s a model to find votes, it might be in another election held in 2008. The vote for the state’s Corporation Commissioner saw a field of six candidates in an open field vying for three open seats. The top three vote-getters took office. Two of them were Democrats – the first sent to the board in a decade. But the cumulative vote for all candidates saw the three Democratic candidates win 52.4% of the statewide vote – winning both Maricopa (55%) and the combined vote of the remaining counties (51%). It’s a different animal, but the surge of 2008 vote that might have gone for Obama in Arizona had McCain not been the nominee is a bit telling.

I was a pessimist when Team Obama publicly committed $40M to winning Florida. And I’m skeptical that Obama shows gains over 2008 anywhere this cycle. But Obama could definitely stand to gain some votes in Arizona since his 2008 support may have been held down by the favorite son opponent. Whether its enough to win, I’m still skeptical. But we’ll see how close he can make it if there’s money behind the promise of competing there.

A point to make about the corollary to Texas: the fact that Arizon’s population is so concentrated highlights a key difference about why a state that Obama polled about 1 point behind Arizona is harder to swing. Texas has 20 media markets. Arizona, four. Two are in-state and the two that aren’t are generally areas where Obama is likely to already be advertising: Las Vegas and Albequerque. That’s a lot more manageable than playing in three very expensive major media markets like DFW, Houston, and San Antonio while hoping that there’s enough money to play in some of the smaller, more affordable ones like Austin, Waco, or Dem-friendly ones such as Harlingen, Laredo, Corpus Christi, and El Paso. That’s enough to bleed any campaign dry.

So while a competitive race in Arizona may give Texas Dems a bit more heart for the future, there’s still a big competitive hurdle that comes with a state nearly four times larger than Arizona.

And while we’re on the topic of Bruce Babbitt (we were talking about Bruce Babbitt, right?), here’s the best video I could find that included his 1987 stint on Saturday Night Live. I wonder what ever happened to the guy who grilled him on that show?


Bruce Babbitt ('88 Democrat Presidential… by weatherguru76

Must See Premium Cable

January 19, 2012 Politics-2012 No Comments

Via the inbox …

Governor Roemer will be a guest this Friday on Real Time with Bill Maher. Since it’s on HBO, anything can happen so expect Buddy to call out the other candidates by name and expose their ties to the special interests.

I have only two words for this: Awe. Some.

There’s absolutely zero chance in the world that I’ll be in a position to cast a vote for Buddy. But he’s definitely been an interesting candidate for President this go-round.

The Over-Celebritization of Herman Cain

» Andrew Sullivan: The Mark of Cain

An interesting sidenote to the GOP “contest’s” recent departure from the island …

He was also emblematic of contemporary conservatism’s degeneracy into an extension of an entertainment franchise. Whatever else can be said of Cain, he sure was entertaining. That’s how he makes a living, and, increasingly, it’s how most national Republicans make a living. That’s the Ailes effect – and one can sense how FNC now wants Gingrich, if only for the ratings, and endless drama. Palin was about ratings too, according to Ailes himself.

The first line leaves it open to suggestion that this “over-celebritization” or “reality show” phase is unique to the GOP. I certainly don’t think that’s the case, even if it’s pretty obvious that they’re wading deeper and deeper into the genre. The more unsettling prospect is that, to the extent that there is no Democratic reality TV show going on to compete with the GOP version now airing, I suspect it may worsen any enthusiasm gap for November 2012. In short: there’s some level of this game where politics-as-pop-culture may help. Check the highlights of Bill Clinton from 1992 for an easy datapoint. But, on the whole, I think we’re way beyond that point.

Buddy & Colbert

July 31, 2011 Politics-2012 No Comments

I’m a little late in getting to this, but here’s Buddy Roemer’s appearance on Colbert …

Yes, he has zero shot of having even a single delegate at the convention. I think it’s safe to say that a prime time speaking slot is even a longshot. The fact that he may not even raise enough money to get on the ballot in most states certainly doesn’t help. And I’m in the odd spot of having one of the few (if only) GOP candidates that I can respect hailing from the growing “fair trade” wing of the party that runs counter to my views on the topic. Still, it’s kinda good to see him back in the mix of things.

If nothing else, the interview does a magnificent job of demonstrating the folly of federal campaign finance law.

Chasing Obama 2012: Rise of the Super PACs

July 11, 2011 Politics-2012 No Comments

With end-of-quarter fundraising deadlines past and campaign treasurers cooking the books around the clock before the reports have to be turned in on the 15th, the Washington Post profiles the rise of Super PACS.

Elsewhere, and as always … there is polling. PPP polls New Hampshire GOP voters and gets the following results:

Romney – 25%
Bachmann – 17%
Palin – 11%
Paul – 9%
Perry – 7%
Cain – 7%
Huntsman – 6%
Pawlenty – 6%
Gingrich – 4%

WMUR’s poll of NH GOP voters found the following:

Romney – 35%
Bachmann – 12%
Paul – 7%
Giuliani – 7%
Perry – 4%
Palin – 3%
Pawlenty – 3%
Huntsman – 2%
Cain – 2%
Gingrich – 1%
Santorum, Johnson, Roemer – <1%

PPP is an automated poll and WMUR's appears to be live-person polling. Draw your own conclusion for how that impacts any of the differences seen in the numbers.

Bachmann is the big story out of both polls, due to her pronounced bounce from both previous polls. Perry's 7% in PPP and 4% in WMUR is the biggest benchmark for how the next poll shows him doing in NH.

On with the candidates ...

More or Less “In It”

Mitt Romney … Turns out that $20M was a rounding error. Mitt officially clocked in at $18.25M for Q2. The SuperPAC raised an additional $12M, so a combined $30M bang for the pro-Mitt buck isn’t necessarily terrible, though it is short of the $50M that Mitt had hoped to raise just on the campaign side of things. Team Obama is still expected to lead the herd with $60M.

Tim Pawlenty … New ad up in Iowa. Speculation about an early exit is offset by finally campaigning in Iowa.

Herman Cainwinner of the Cobb County GOP Independence Day Celebration straw poll. Hey, that’s something!

Jon Huntsman … Utah congressman endorses Romney. US Senator, State Attorney General, and a gaggle of other state-level electeds endorse Romney. Kinda sums it up for the Huntsman campaign.

Ron Paul … $75k for radio ads in Iowa.

Rick Santorum … You know it’s tough to run against an incumbent when you claim that they’ve “only” created 240M jobs.

Michele Bachmann … Bachmann goes up in Iowa, but Ben Smith reports the ad buy is particularly small. When Michele Met Kathy.

Thaddeus McCotter … still waiting for McCotter to actually make any news. By comparison, Buddy Roemer looks pretty media-savvy.

Buddy Roemer … If only Louisiana held first-in-the-nation caucuses, the guy might have better odds.

Newt Gingrich … It seems like just yesterday that New Gingrich announced for President, saw the majority of his staff swim for the life boats as they escaped the sinking ship … and now the guy is $1M in debt after raising about $2.5M. Are they having Tiffany’s print bumper stickers?

Gary Johnsonthis space reserved for when Gary Johnson makes or warrants news.

Addicted to Publicity “Thinkin’ About It”

Rick Perry … With back surgery now done with, he’s lining up the support of the big-name crazy pastors. Steve Mostyn vows to take Back to Basics national in order to beat up on Rick Perry.

Even Slower News Weeks

David DukeSeriously?

The Candidate Formerly Known as the Former Governor of Alaska … Maybe not “Undefeated” (unless you ignore that minor election in 2008), but definitely unloved by the people of Alaska. Whatever, she’s trademarking her name. Feel free to register that as a clue for or against her actual running for President.

“Integration” is the New Facebook

July 5, 2011 Politics-2012 No Comments

» ABC News: Obama 2012 Campaign to Go Beyond Email, Text

Words to live by (in campaignland, anyway) …

“The successful campaign is going to be one that integrates all the various elements of the digital channel — email, text, website, mobile apps, and social networks — together as one digital program and also mixing the digital program together with the offline reality of field organizations,” said Joe Rospars, the Obama campaign’s chief digital strategist.

“In the end,” Rospars said, “all the digital stuff is in service of the offline reality of knocking on doors, making phone calls and ultimately persuading voters and turning them out.”

The 2008 narrative of Obama campaign being the first “Facebook campaign” always struck me as overblown. Rospars has always struck me as one who got the fact that integration throughout the campaign meant more than being on board the latest fad. In a sense, the next big fad should be that there are no more fads. That’s not to say no more new tools or online platforms will evolve (I’m already dreading the inevitable Gowalla phase), but that the more important question will be how those tools feed into the actual grunt work of offline campaigning.

Chasing Obama 2012: Q2

July 3, 2011 Politics-2012 No Comments

The first big quarterly fundraising comparisons are now available, as the quarterly deadline has passed and most of the candidates are already announcing their number. Team Obama has yet to announce, but their target going in was to raise $60M for both the campaign fund and the DNC. That would match (and/or hopefully top) the previous record for this stage of the campaign, set by his predecessor. As far as the GOP herd is concerned, the only fairly impressive numbers are Mitt’s ~$20M. But that assumes the obvious qualifier that Rick Perry is holding off on an announcement until he can avoid the comparison contest for this round. We’ll have to wait until the 15th or so before we can see the cash-on-hand comparisons and burn rates on campaign cash.

Most of the “game” between the deadline and the reporting date on the 15th is to see whether candidates can hit their expectation. Obama hasn’t released a number yet, but most of the reports seem optimistic that they’ll show $60M and they obviously have the most to lose by showing any report that comes up short of their target. Mitt is already the first to show a gap, having aimed for $40M but only clocking in at $20M. In conventional wisdom terms, the explanation is that this demonstrates either of the following:

(best case for Mitt) – a lot of donors staying on the sidelines until they see the shape of the race once Perry is in.
(worst case for Mitt) – donors waiting to give to Perry.

The one plus for Mitt, however, is that he’s still the only one among his primary opponents raising 8 figures this quarter. Beyond that, here’s a small compilation of the “expectations” for this quarter: NBC’s First ReadThe FixPolitico

More or Less “In It”

Mitt Romney … Apparently, the old flip-flopping Mitt is back. Politico covers Romney’s early Nevada work while the Washington Post has a pretty good overview of how Team Romney is trying to stay out in front of Team Obama in local coverage.

Herman Cain … Q2 clocks in at $2.5M for Team Cain. But someone forgot to tell Cain that the “Gingrich example” was not a good one to follow.

Jon Huntsman … First to release his Q2 numbers, and it comes in at $4.1M. That includes a $2M gift to himself. Not earth-shattering, but not quite small enough given his time on the trail to relegate him to the back of the bench just yet. That’s still likelier to happen when the votes fail to come in for him.

Ron Paul … Q2 clocks in at $4.5M. It may be more interesting this cycle than ever before to see how much of that money is devoted to actual Presidential campaigning vs being transferred to his House campaign due to the more Dem-friendly district he has to defend. Ron Paul’s words to live by: “We’re in Iowa for a very precise reason …. Iowa is a bellwether. It can send signals. That’s what we’re really looking for – a signal.” That explains the tin foil hats.

Rick Santorum … I’ve not seen any leaking of Q2 numbers for Santorum, but he’s starting a bus tour in Iowa this week. So I guess we’ll have to gauge the size of the bus as a possible indicator of his fundraising prowess. Elsewhere, Santorum’s association with Universal Health Services continues to make for some interesting reading.

Michele Bachmann … After confusing John Wayne with John Wayne Gacy in interviews following her announcement this week, the race becomes a bit more real. Ed Kilgore suggests that the way for other GOP candidates to burst the Bachmann bubble will be similar to the way that Huckabee was ultimately done in – by critiques of off-script policy views rather than poking at the theocratic gorilla in the middle of the party. All things considered, Bachmann has probably had a very good week in terms of the media she’s getting. She’s distancing herself from the Palin comparison (a fairly vapid comparison to begin with, but that’s how the world works) in terms of demonstrating a willingness to talk to the media. It’s almost enough to call it a wash when things like her feud with Tom Petty and Katrina & the Waves pop up in the news.

Gary Johnson … PPP polls Johnson’s home state and finds that he is also among the list of GOP contenders who would fail to carry their own state if the election were held today. Coincidentally, Johnson is now facing a Buddy Roemer problem in terms of gaining access to televised debates.

Buddy Roemer#roemermentum. The unfortunate thing about Roemer’s showing is that, while I’d hoped that his campaign experience would leave me with enough cause to maintain my affinity for him, I’m less convinced that a likely cause would be that he sees the need to go full-tilt crazy to appeal to voters and that his $100 donor limit might just be demonstration enough that he’s not fully thought through what it takes to run for President. Don’t get me wrong … I love the idea of a candidate doing what he’s doing with the limit. I think I donated to Roemer and Florida Gov. candidate Lawton Chiles for that very reason back when they ran in 1990/91. But that was a long time ago. You’d think inflation alone would give Buddy reason to at least up a limit to, say, $500?

Hanging In There

Newt Gingrich … The Washington Post gets the full story on what led to the mass staff defections in previous weeks.

Addicted to Publicity “Thinkin’ About It”

Rick Perry … Yeah, there’s that poll. Ron Brownstein asks whether Perry can raise the dough and grow an organization in enough time. The Washington Post turns one of their best reporters on the speculation over his candidacy. Those are definitely the first questions Team Perry is going to have to answer. Add in the fact that the South Carolina primary is in jeopardy, and the big opening for Rick Perry in the GOP field may be a tougher tire to throw the football through than first thought.

Even Slower News Weeks

Chris Christie … Michael Smerconish pleads for the Governor to reconsider a Presidential run.

Rudy GiulianiVisiting New Hampshire. Make of it what you will.

Thaddeus McCotterSeriously?

The Candidate Formerly Known as the Former Governor of Alaska … Sayeth the baby-mama: “I think she would be awesome for our country.” Of course, she also thought Levi Johnston would make a great husband (twice). And in other news, The Palin visited Iowa for the red carpet premier of a fan-fiction movie loosely based on her life. Naturally, all major news outlets had to send road crews out to witness it. Forget policy differences for just one moment and try to convince me how a Palin candidacy for President is any better/different than that of Pat Paulsen?

Perry v Obama: PPP’s Texas Poll

June 30, 2011 Politics-2012 3 Comments

PPP Polls Texas and makes a splash with one very interesting datapoint.

Obama vs
Perry ...... 47-45
Palin ...... 46-44
Bachmann ... 44-47
Cain ....... 43-43
Pawlenty ... 43-44
Romney ..... 42-50
Paul ....... 40-45

2008 Vote .. 41-52

Needless to say, rightwing bloggers are in a tizzy over this and there’s not much better spectator sport than that during this time of year. Helps that the Astros are awful, too, I suppose.

If there were to be a more reasoned caveat to interject here, I think it would be that the poll is conducted at a time of the year when Rick Perry is not quite at “Peak Perry” in his own backyard. The special session has just wound down and the very important priorities of Rick Perry have been dealt with. Who knew that Texans would have a visceral reaction to the prioritization of killing feral hogs from a helicopter over adequately funding public education?

Needless to say, I’d peg this poll as the most opportune timing that you’ll see for Obama in the state, short of Perry DMing crotch shots of himself to porn stars. The job approval numbers are the most telling:

Obama Job Approval ... 42-55
Perry Job Approval ... 43-52

In the most relevant previous poll, the Texas Lyceum poll, Perry had a 54-44 net approval, while Obama had a 51-48 net approval in the midst of his OBL bounce. In that poll, the only 2012 General Election question was whether respondents would vote for Obama vs “the Republican candidate.” And that clocked in at 35 Obama/44 GOP, with 17% undecided.

PPP pushes respondents into more of a binary choice, with significantly fewer undecideds. That suggests to me that there’s a level of squishiness in the support of all candidates. One aspect of the poll that you simply will not see a single rightwing blogger address, however, is the fact that the Lyceum poll even demonstrated the native weakness of Rick Perry in the GOP Presidential Primary, losing to Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Ron Paul. He barely edged out Herm Cain in that poll. Those aren’t exactly numbers that scream out “Favorite Son.”

Remember, Rick Perry has not run statewide in Presidential years and he has also demonstrated significant weakness compared to other statewide Republicans in years when he has run. 2012 is a very different environment for Rick Perry, even in Texas. I’d expect the Texas numbers to improve for him as we get further removed from the legislative sessions, but I also think it’s a far cry to expect Perry to carry the state with 60%, ala George Bush.

The 2008 McCain/Obama numbers still strike me as a close expectation of what to see in 2012. If Team Obama actually does drop some paid field resources into the state, I think he can improve on those numbers. And if he doesn’t, I think there’s a point or two south that the numbers can get for him. Whether or not he should, I believe, isn’t a function of whether the needle can move closer to a victory for Obama in Texas … it’s whether the campaign believes it can devote the resources to being competitive in a state with 20 media markets at the expense of other competitive states that can be put in play with far less funds.

Kuff has a bit more on the PPP showing.

Very Serious People in Remote Locations on the Topic of “2012 vs 2008″

June 29, 2011 Politics-2012 No Comments

Two things in life I usually loathe enough to not blog about: items from the “morning aggregator” sites and emails; and discussion items from big, pseudo-important gabfests at tourist spots too pricey for my kind. With that said, my justification for quoting the below material is that I am guilty of at least reading Mike Allen’s email for Presidential items and it just so happens that they talked about election math projections in Aspen. So here’s me, sucking it up for a single post:

A couple of nuggets from an Aspen Ideas Festival panel (called a “tutorial” at this high altitude), “We Agree on Problems; Can We Agree on Solutions?”:

–Mark McKinnon, on whether the popular vote in 2012 will be closer than in ’08 (when it was Obama 52.9% and McCain 45.7%, a 7-point spread), and whether the election will leave the nation in an improved position for building broad coalitions, or more polarized: “I think it is going to be closer. I think it’ll be a very, very close election. … I’m encouraged, though by signs that I see … I was very interested to see Mitt Romney, just yesterday, talk about … bipartisan cooperation. … That is a pretty remarkable thing in the middle of a Republican primary. That gives me a little bit of hope.”

–David Axelrod: “We won a substantial victory in 2008. By modern standards, it was almost a landslide. By definition, this has to be a closer race. … For three and a half years as president of the United States, every day is a referendum on YOU. The last four months of the campaign is a choice. And we’ll have a big, vigorous debate on this. … I believe we’re going to win this election. I think sensible people on the other side are going to take a look at it and say, ‘This didn’t work, and what do we have to do to make ourselves more saleable?’ … We haven’t mentioned the fundamental thing that disturbs me, which is that we have an environment in which you can’t disagree without discrediting your opponent in the most fundamental way. … Hopefully some of the steam will come out of this after this election. And people will step back and say, ‘You know, this is not a profitable path.’”

Take the “why can’t we all get along” bipartisanship convo for whatever nickel it’s worth, but I’d put McKinnon and Axelrod down as two worthwhile quotes for expectations of the next Presidential election. Axelrod doesn’t quite come out and say “it’s going to be closer than 2008″, but qualifying 2008 as “almost a landslide” paints a servicable enough picture for that to be read between the lines.

And granted, they’re talking about national terms, with local peaks and valleys likely to fluctuate. But the “peaks” shown in the post yesterday sure do seem to suggest that there may be a large number of county returns that should recede from their 2008 results in terms of either/both turnout and vote share. The only counterbalance to that, I’d argue, would be demographic change. But that’s only a four year shift and much of the results seen in the 2010 Census results were already in effect for the 2008 election.

To narrow that down to a very finite point, Barack Obama carried Harris County 50.4% – 48.8%. There’s not a lot of receding to be done there before you have to ask if Obama can carry Harris County in 2012 and then ponder what that might mean for the remaining electeds in Harris County, including many incumbents first swept into office in 2008.

Obama In Texas?

April 4, 2011 Politics-2011 1 Comment

(Via Chait)

On today’s announcement by Team Obama that the 2012 campaign is being officialized today, First Read offers the following speculation about new battlegrounds …

A few states to keep an eye on THIS year when it comes to the Obama campaign: AZ, GA, and TX. All three are long shots, but all three showed significant population gains for minorities in the last 10 years. And the campaign is going to attempt to at least experiment with organizing in these three states to see if any of them are worth truly battling for when the calendar turns from 2011 to 2012.

Hey, it can be done with a 30-county strategy, guys!

Some Dreams Never Die

January 7, 2011 Politics-2011 No Comments

Wow

Roemer for President?

Despite Bobby Jindal swearing off it, there could still be a Louisiana governor running for president in 2012. Buddy Roemer says he’s thinking about it.

“It certainly interests me. There is a lot of work to be done,” the former governor and bank president told LaPolitics. “I am making no announcement. I am not running today,” he said. “It will take months to work out if it happens. I don’t want to scare anyone.”

Whether as a candidate or not, he sees the need for a different approach from “the professional corruption in politics” created by how presidential candidates raise money.

I don’t like to over-generalize, but I think I can safely say that nobody under the age of 40 in Louisiana knows who Buddy Roemer is anymore. Outside of Louisiana … it doesn’t get better. I continue to like a great deal about Roemer from his time as Governor of Louisiana, but this dream is one that deserves to die.

But just for the fun of it, there’s this from the C-SPAN Archive to see what almost was from Roemer’s earlier time as Governor.

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In Session

January 5, 2013

Today, I’m off to settle into a new workspace and a temporary residence in order to work with my new State Representative, Gene Wu, in Austin. Before anyone thinks to call, comment, or text about how exciting any of that is, you should be reminded that I was raised to loathe all things Austin. While [...]

2007-11 Citizen Voting Age Population Update

December 31, 2012

I missed out on commenting on the Chronicle’s coverage of the recent update on Census data. This comes from the American Community Survey’s annual rolling update to their population counts. I’ve only scratched the surface and updated some of my counts on how the total population translates down to citizen voting age population. Here are [...]

The Year Ahead

December 18, 2012

Up till now, I’ve generally subscribed to Jim Carville’s maxim that “I wouldn’t want to work for any government that would be willing to hire me.” But this is Texas … we seem to need a bit of help. So, starting in January, I’ll be working in the legislature for Gene Wu. He won the [...]

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