The end of the year means new Census data being released. I’m saving most of my work until the Citizen Voting Age data is out, but here are the top lines for total population in Harris County, with previous ACS updates included to show the gradual change over time:

          Tot. Pop. '10 (%) | Tot. Pop. '11 (%) | Tot. Pop. '12 (%) | Tot. Pop. '13 (%) 
----------------------------|-------------------|-------------------|------------------ 
TOTAL     4,092,459         | 4,025,409         | 4,101,752         | 4,182,285
----------------------------|-------------------|-------------------|------------------ 
Anglo     1,349,646 (33.0%) | 1,353,868 (33.6%) | 1,354,869 (33.0%) | 1,361,568 (32.6%)
Hispanic  1,671,540 (40.8%) | 1,621,065 (40.3%) | 1,671,262 (40.7%) | 1,717,940 (41.1%)
Afr.-Am.    754,258 (18.4%) |   747,398 (18.6%) |   775,085 (18.9%) |   774,120 (18.5%)
Asian       249,853  (6.1%) |   246,924  (6.1%) |   257,467  (6.3%) |   262,251  (6.3%)
Other        67,162  (1.6%) |    56,154  (1.4%) |    43,069  (1.1%) |    66,406  (1.6%)

On a technical note, this is all based on the 5-yr dataset, which is the only dataset that provides CVAP details at the block group level. The one-year data at the county level, however, shows a more current snapshot of the county:

         5-yr ACS             1-yr ACS
----------------------------------------------
        4,182,285            4,336,853   
----------------------------------------------
Anglo   1,361,568 (32.6%)    1,376,670 (31.7%)
Hisp    1,717,940 (41.1%)    1,803,547 (41.6%)
AfrAm     774,120 (18.5%)      798,658 (18.4%)
Asian     262,251 ( 6.3%)      276,803 ( 6.4%)
Other      66,406 ( 1.6%)      81,175  ( 1.9%)

I asked some people smarter than me about how the five year set was calculated. I figured they may weight more recent years or do something fancy. Turns out, there’s no magic to it at all. Everything is weighted the same. What this means is that the “Pulaski Effect” leads to the 2012 and 2013 5-yr data sets closely tracking with the full 2010 Census data. That’s due to the aggregate of yearly data in, say, the 2008-2012 data set averaging somewhere toward the middle of that range – which is precisely 2010. I trust that everyone in the world was as curious as I was about that.

Again, CVAP data and mapping to happen as soon as the Census puts numbers online.

As below, so above. This time, I’ve mapped out the Citizen Voting Age Population majorities in the Metroplex area. For the sake of Google’s API restrictions, the embedded map only shows Dallas and Tarrant counties. But the Google Earth file will have Collin and Denton thrown in.

As always, the color coding is as follows:
– Red – Anglo majority
– Black – African-American majority
– Brown – Hispanic majority
– Green – Asian majority
– Yellow – Multicultural (no majority)


full pageGoogle Earth file

And below are the individual county counts from the American Community Survey. Of primary interest to me in this is the change from the 2005-09 ACS to the more recent 2008-12 ACS. I’m guessing I might have missed the tipping point by not looking at Dallas County’s 2006-10 or 2007-11 counts. But for what it’s worth, Dallas County is currently a majority-minority CVAP county. Shifts like that are generally more telling in terms of the political impact than the more publicly notable instances of Total Population shifting to majority-minority. And it’s worth noting that Dallas County’s functional shift to a fully Democratic county predates the CVAP shift by a few years.

Anyways, numbers and whatnot …

Dallas County:
» 0.8% Growth in Total Pop (2010 Census vs 2008-12 ACS)
» 1.8% Growth in CVAP (2005-09 ACS vs 2008-12 ACS)

             TOTAL                VAP         |   CVAP-12            CVAP-09
----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------
Total    2,379,215          1,723,795         | 1,360,390          1,336,305
----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------
Anglo      792,215 (33.3%)    663,395 (38.5%) |   649,060 (47.7%)    686,654 (51.4%)
Hispanic   908,200 (38.2%)    572,035 (33.2%) |   277,395 (20.4%)    256,185 (19.2%)
Afr-Am     516,670 (21.7%)    369,820 (21.5%) |   356,115 (26.2%)    327,939 (24.5%)
Asian      122,965  (5.2%)     93,980  (5.5%) |    54,010  (4.0%)     44,992  (3.4%)

Tarrant County:
» 0.3% Growth in Total Pop (2010 Census vs 2008-12 ACS)
» 2.5% Growth in CVAP (2005-09 ACS vs 2008-12 ACS)

             TOTAL                VAP         |   CVAP-12            CVAP-09
----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------
Total    1,814,665          1,308,680         | 1,141,750          1,063,145
----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------
Anglo      942,305 (51.9%)    741,275 (56.6%) |   730,125 (63.9%)    712,000 (67.0%)
Hispanic   484,240 (26.7%)    300,040 (22.9%) |   176,280 (15.4%)    148,758 (14.0%)
Afr-Am     266,170 (14.7%)    183,160 (14.0%) |   173,510 (15.2%)    151,795 (14.3%)
Asian       84,485  (4.7%)     63,000  (4.8%) |    42,105  (3.7%)     33,474  (3.2%)

Collin County:
» 0.8% Growth in Total Pop (2010 Census vs 2008-12 ACS)
» 3.3% Growth in CVAP (2005-09 ACS vs 2008-12 ACS)

             TOTAL                VAP         |   CVAP-12            CVAP-09
----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------
Total      788,580            564,330         |   496,230            459,505
----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------
Anglo      498,480 (63.2%)    372,840 (66.1%) |   363,715 (73.3%)    352,265 (76.7%)
Hispanic   116,000 (14.7%)     73,215 (13.0%) |    43,580  (8.8%)     36,880  (8.0%)
Afr-Am      65,390  (8.3%)     45,500  (8.1%) |    41,225  (8.3%)     33,595  (7.3%)
Asian       90,110 (11.4%)     63,425 (11.2%) |    39,225  (7.9%)     29,675  (6.5%)

Denton County:
» 0.8% Growth in Total Pop (2010 Census vs 2008-12 ACS)
» 4.0% Growth in CVAP (2005-09 ACS vs 2008-12 ACS)

             TOTAL                VAP         |   CVAP-12            CVAP-09
----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------
Total      667,935            485,050         |   433,850            397,320
----------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------
Anglo      431,120 (64.5%)    327,450 (67.5%) |   321,885 (74.2%)    309,500 (77.9%)
Hispanic   121,560 (18.2%)     76,700 (15.8%) |    46,205 (10.6%)     36,715  (9.2%)
Afr-Am      53,410  (8.0%)     38,765  (8.0%) |    36,925  (8.5%)     30,280  (7.6%)
Asian       44,050  (6.6%)     32,195  (6.6%) |    19,180  (4.4%)     13,325  (3.4%)

I also added a calculation to track the percentage change in Total Population and CVAP. It’s worth noting that these numbers aren’t expected to be comparable to the CVAP change mentioned above. In the case of the Total Pop change, it’s comparing the full 2010 Census to the current 2008-12 ACS.

One important factor to consider for the Total Pop change is that this year’s ACS has 2010 as it’s midpoint. So, if you assume (as I do not) that the ACS were to have a straightline average over 5 years and you also assume (as I again, do not) that the ACS is a near-perfect estimation process, then the ACS Total Pop counts would be frighteningly similar to the actual Census number. The numbers are close, as expected. But they seem to be within a range of what I’d expect to see with some of the imperfect estimation process built into the ACS data.

The ACS CVAP comparison number is a bit more interesting to me since it reflects a purer four years worth of change and might even begin to color some expectation of what the next decade population growth counts might look like. There’s obviously a long way to go, but I think the 20% growth we saw over the last decade’s Census counts is going to be out of reach given the current pace of CVAP growth. Of course, I’m also factoring in the idea that non-citizen immigration isn’t hollowing out the Total Population counts as much as it did last decade. But who among us isn’t doing the same!

I’m gradually wading back into the annual update of Census numbers via the American Community Survey that just came out. For the sake of maintaining the bookmark I’m keeping on Harris County Population trends, here are the latest 5-year estimates covering 2008-2012 shown in contest of previous ACS releases:

         Tot. Pop. '10 (%)    Tot. Pop. '11 (%)    Tot. Pop. '12 (%) 
----------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL      4,092,459           4,025,409            4,101,752
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Anglo      1,349,646 (33.0%)   1,353,868 (33.6%)    1,354,869 (33.0%)
Hispanic   1,671,540 (40.8%)   1,621,065 (40.3%)    1,671,262 (40.7%)
Afr.-Am.     754,258 (18.4%)     747,398 (18.6%)      775,085 (18.9%)
Asian        249,853  (6.1%)     246,924  (6.1%)      257,467  (6.3%)
Other         67,162  (1.6%)      56,154  (1.4%)       43,069  (1.1%)


         18+ Pop. '10 (%)     18+ Pop. '11 (%)     18+ Pop. '12 (%) 
--------------------------------------------------------------------- 
TOTAL       2,944,624          2,893,717            2,956,297
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Anglo       1,085,630 (36.9%)  1,085,427 (37.5%)    1,090,375 (36.9%)
Hispanic    1,082,570 (36.7%)  1,049,076 (36.3%)    1,084,712 (36.7%)
Afr.-Am.      541,108 (18.4%)    540,203 (18.7%)      553,966 (18.7%)
Asian         194,956  (6.6%)    193,555  (6.7%)      200,401  (6.8%)
Other          40,360  (1.4%)     25,456  (0.9%)       26,843  (0.9%)


              CVAP-09 (%)         CVAP-10 (%)         CVAP-11 (%)         CVAP-12 (%) 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
TOTAL       2,195,535           2,230,550           2,276,903           2,328,000
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Anglo       1,090,624 (49.7%)   1,051,265 (47.1%)   1,048,230 (46.0%)   1,051,533 (45.2%)
Hispanic      494,695 (22.5%)     530,490 (23.8%)     560,416 (24.6%)     590,282 (25.4%)
Afr.-Am.      481,492 (21.9%)     506,150 (22.7%)     519,122 (22.8%)     531,518 (22.8%)
Asian         106,547  (4.9%)     120,660  (5.4%)     125,733  (5.5%)     130,291  (5.6%)
Other          22,177  (1.0%)      21,985  (1.0%)      23,402  (1.0%)      24,376  (1.0%)

A lot of the obvious trends are still in motion – growing Hispanic and declining Anglo population shares key among them. But here are a few other tidbits that jump out to me:

» If you look at the Under-18 data (or simply subtract VAP from Total Pop), I come up with a group that is majority Hispanic (51.2%), with Anglo (23.1%) and Afr-Am (19.3%) populations jostling for 2nd place. Even better, 91% of those Hispanics are citizen. This suggests a lot about what the peak potential is for each demographic. If we assume the numbers are static and evenly applied (neither of which I’d do in real life), that means the high-water mark for population generation among Hispanics is clocking in at about 46% CVAP (51.2% x 91%). Barring other changes, that means you would never see a CVAP Hispanic majority in Harris County.

» Fortunately, things do change. The 18+ group of Hispanics show signs of citizenship increase, going from 45.7% citizen in the 06-10 ACS, to 50.6% in the 06-11 release, to today’s 54.4% share today. That’s a far faster increase than you’d get from 17 year olds turning one year older. Simply put, this is among the most encouraging numbers I think you’ll find here. I’m not sure how sustainable that is or what factors drive that the most. But as long as Hispanic population is growing and the rate of citizenship is growing, that’s nothing but good.

» The Asian population doesn’t have much room for growth. At least not in Harris County. The Under-18 share of population is at 5.0% and the 18+ share is at 6.8%. That has all the earmarks of a ceiling that’s been hit. Don’t say you weren’t warned. There’s still ample room for growth in faster-growing suburbs and other areas with a low starting point for Asian population. But in Harris County … not likely. That makes Houston a very odd place to read about the growing Asian population meme, if nothing else.

Fair warning: there will be more maps and data with some excellent health insurance and educational data included in the release.

I missed out on commenting on the Chronicle’s coverage of the recent update on Census data. This comes from the American Community Survey’s annual rolling update to their population counts.

I’ve only scratched the surface and updated some of my counts on how the total population translates down to citizen voting age population. Here are the topline numbers now. I owe it to myself to double-check these for accuracy, but there are some interesting notes for what turns up here. These are all taken from the 5-year ACS summary.

          Tot. Pop. '10 (%)   Tot. Pop. '11 (%)
-----------------------------------------------
TOTAL     4,092,459           4,025,409
-----------------------------------------------
Anglo     1,349,646 (33.0%)   1,353,868 (33.6%)
Hispanic  1,671,540 (40.8%)   1,621,065 (40.3%)
Afr.-Am.    754,258 (18.4%)     747,398 (18.6%)
Asian       249,853  (6.1%)     246,924  (6.1%)
Other        67,162  (1.6%)      56,154  (1.4%)
            18+ Pop. '10 (%)    18+ Pop. '11 (%)
-------------------------------------------------
TOTAL      2,944,624            2,893,717
-------------------------------------------------
Anglo      1,085,630 (36.9%)    1,085,427 (37.5%)
Hispanic   1,082,570 (36.7%)    1,049,076 (36.3%)
Afr.-Am.     541,108 (18.4%)      540,203 (18.7%)
Asian        194,956  (6.6%)      193,555  (6.7%)
Other         40,360  (1.4%)       25,456  (0.9%)
           CVAP-09 (%)        CVAP-10 (%)         CVAP-11  (%)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL     2,195,535          2,230,550          2,276,903
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Anglo     1,090,624 (49.7%)  1,051,265 (47.1%)  1,048,230 (46.0%)
Hispanic    494,695 (22.5%)    530,490 (23.8%)    560,416 (24.6%)
Afr.-Am.    481,492 (21.9%)    506,150 (22.7%)    519,122 (22.8%)
Asian       106,547  (4.9%)    120,660  (5.4%)    125,733  (5.5%)
Other        22,177  (1.0%)     21,985  (1.0%)     23,402  (1.0%)

Did you notice that the raw number and percentage of total and 18+ Hispanic population decreased from the ’10 counts to the ’11 counts? Keep in mind that the ACS data isn’t the same as the Census. The methodology for counts isn’t the same. But it’s still interesting to see a drop in population share. Even more interesting is that they come as the Citizen Voting Age Population rose for Hispanics in both the overall estimate and the share of the county’s population.

At some point during football games tomorrow, I’ll get around to both mapping this out, double-checking my math and digging into more granular detail. My hunch for now is that much of the change seen here may be due to methodology changes as much as actual numerical growth patterns. I’ll update as time and findings permit. Here’s the full update I did from the 2010 results, if you’re up for some comparison.

» Washington Post: Census chief Robert Groves: We’ve got to stop counting like this

Robert Groves, on his way out the door at the Census …

“Because of the constitution, the country will always have a census,” he said in an interview Friday at his office in the bureau’s Suitland headquarters, already stripped of his personal belongings. “But how we do the census and surveys will have to change.”

Cost is a big reason. Even though it came in $1.9 billion under budget, the last census cost $13 billion, about $42 a head. The pricetag has doubled every decade since 1970.

So there’s talk of relying more and more on private databases. At the basic level, there’s something to be said for that. But once you get beyond household utilities and tax records, I’m curious where that trend leads to.

A random assortment of election coverage as I take care of my own State Rep district. I’ll be back in action Tuesday night.

» KHOU: Allegations of dirty politics arise in civil court judge race
I’ve been in campaigns for judges who were under attack from a lawyer scorned. It’s rarely fun. But it also makes me more sympathetic for Judge Kirkland over the lady with fake supporters.

» Chron: Crowded field vies to succeed Ron Paul in US House
Nearly a dozen candidates crammed into a brief overview. It is what it is. But this’ll be phase two of my year. It’d be easier reading if people got over the fact that this district has very little in common with the district Ron Paul has been representing since 2005.

» New Yorker: Cory Booker: The Dilemma of the New Black Politician
» National Journal: The Emerging Democratic Divide
Two articles that really deserve to be read alongside of each other. The strain of belief within the Democratic Party that believe in things like free markets, entrepreneurship, and liberalized trade isn’t dead. Its just not on the Sunday talk shows and is increasingly hard to find in DC. The voters are still there, though. Knock on a door or two in a any Democratic district and you’ll find them easily enough. That said, there are a lot of electeds who need to drop the DC-centric talking points and reflect their district a little more. Kudos to Cory Booker for letting that happen … on a Sunday talk show, no less.

» New Yorker: Do We Still Need the Voting Rights Act? (Jeffrey Toobin)
There’s room for improvement in a nation where multicultural areas are proliferating. It would also be a good thing to see greater protections afforded to Asian populations (spoken as one who is campaigning in one such area that has been fractured into no less than 5 different State Rep districts!). But the short answer is … yes. Until there’s any reasonable discourse allowed on the topic from the far right, the middle ground will just be a continuation of the same 60’s era solution applied for as long as SCOTUS allows.

» Chron: Census count stirs up debate (Jeannie Kever)
The Chron follows up with some Texas reactions toward the single biggest issue known to mankind the brouhaha over the American Community Survey. There’s also an update that Houston will get an answer to their appeal on undercounting in the city in a couple of weeks.

» Texas Observer: House District 26: As Fort Bend Goes

Fort Bend has been called a bellwether county so often that it’s easy to become skeptical about the use of the term ….

I’m too overworked to have enough patience to dig through the archives for where I might have first made mention of this. I’m fairly certain I had to have been part of the early crowd, though. But the article is more of a snapshot of the HD26 contest. Unfortunately, the court didn’t maintain a more competitive district in this instance.

» 538: Swing Voters and Elastic States
After doing my own round of number-crunching of historical voting patterns in HD137 as well as the daily ritual with the Early Vote rosters provided by the County, its actually very soothing to read someone else’s work with election data for a change.

A few quick thoughts while the dayjob occupies me 24/7 …

» Off the Kuff: Early voting after one full week
I’m obviously less interested in the overall, final turnout for the Dem Primary since I’m working in one small slice of the county. The big question with only guesstimates for answers is “What % of the vote comes early and what % comes on the day after a holiday?” I’m not going to engage in too much thought on it, other than optimistically hope that its somewhere around the 50/50 ballpark. If that’s the case, then my little corner of the county could see a relatively healthy showing in terms of turnout. Of course, I should add that “relatively” is the operative term here. More on this after the votes are counted.

» Chron: Early voters have hot-button issues on their minds
This is a generic, catch-all newser on the mood around Early Voting in Harris County. One tidbit of interest is that it picks up on a GOTV rally that happened at Bayland Park Community Center (which is where I also spent my Saturday getting sunburn).

» TX Tribune: UT/TT Poll: Runoffs Loom in U.S. Senate Race
I’m not one to put a great deal of stock in the UT/Trib polls, but it seems to be fitting in the pattern that’s out there: a runoff between Dewhurst and Ted Cruz. If only the extra bloodletting were a boost for a Dem candidate.

» Wash. Post: Can Obama win Iowa?
It seems like forever since I’ve been able to give much attention to Presidential politics. But the swing state mood still piques my interest and how this year compares in places like Iowa compared to the 2008 returns will be a topic of serious study after the votes are counted in November. The brief video segment for this serves as a teaser for now.

» NY Times: The Beginning of the End of the Census?
I’m as shocked as you are that the American Community Survey is to 2012 what flourescent light bulb was to 2010. And you’ve just got to admire the statistical incoherence of a comment like this:

“… in the end this is not a scientific survey. It’s a random survey.”

» A trio of follow-up items on the recent Stryper show.

Back to electioneering. See you on the other side!

Time for some new data from the Census Bureau. As stated a couple of dozen times before, the counts for citizen, voting age population (CVAP) are no rolled out on an annual basis as part of the Bureau’s American Community Survey. It’s been a little while since this came out, but I seem to be stuck in work mode for a couple of clients waiting on a district to be finalized and approved for running in. Priorities and whatnot.

Anyways, here’s the Harris County view, with the 2005-09 CVAP counts left in and the 2006-10 CVAP counts tacked on for easy comparison.

          Total Pop. (%)     18+ Pop. (%)       CVAP-09 (%)        CVAP-10 (%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL     4,092,459          2,944,624          2,195,535          2,230,550
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Anglo     1,349,646 (33.0%)  1,085,630 (36.9%)  1,090,624 (49.7%)  1,051,265 (47.1%)
Hispanic  1,671,540 (40.8%)  1,082,570 (36.7%)    494,695 (22.5%)    530,490 (23.8%)
Afr.-Am.    754,258 (18.4%)    541,108 (18.4%)    481,492 (21.9%)    506,150 (22.7%)
Asian       249,853  (6.1%)    194,956  (6.6%)    106,547  (4.9%)    120,660  (5.4%)
Other        67,162  (1.6%)     40,360  (1.4%)     22,177  (1.0%)     21,985  (1.0%)

If those seem like huge changes for one year on the two CVAP counts, there are a few things worth keeping in mind:

1. Some of this is obviously affected by natural demographic changes from the five-year period initially calculated to the new five-year period. I’m not inclined to accept that the majority of the change from the 2009 to 2010 CVAP counts is a result of true population changes.

2. An issue noted from the 2005-09 data is still relevant to keep in mind: there are datapoints from as far back as 2006 incorporated into the estimates. This post gives a fair snapshot of it. Basically, what CVAP captures something of a midpoint of the change from the 2000 Census numbers to the 2010 Census numbers. I doubt this has a huge impact on the year-to-year changes, outside of losing the 2005 datapoints in the 2005-09 CVAP data. But it’s definitely something worth checking before anyone gets too excited or too depressed over any particular change for any given column or row above.

3. The Census Bureau itself does a little bit of updating in how they calculate these estimates, so there’s bound to be a little bit of correction built into these numbers. I’m not sure how much of an impact this has on year-to-year changes. But the Bureau’s reporting of CVAP data has been an issue even beyond redistricting. I’ve not read any updates on specific changes, but I think it’s worth chalking up a not-insignificant share of the change to changing methodology.

With that, here’s the map of Harris County by Block Group, color-coded to reflect which demographic group has a majority within the block group. Standard coloring applies: red is for Anglo majority; black is for African-American majority; brown is for Hispanic majority; green is for Asian majority (this is actually a fairly new wrinkle for those keeping track at home). Yellow is for no majority, aka – multicultural.

Numbers and whatnot are included in the info window for those who want to poke, zoom, and click. Knock yourself out.


full pageGoogle Earth file for all of Southeast Texas

There’s definitely some interesting finds here. One really nice change from last year is that the data is collected with 2010 block group boundary definitions instead of those from 2000. That might not mean much for those just using a visual overview of the map below. But the change makes it easy to stack this data up against 2010 Census data.

A cursory look at some CVAP Conversion ratios shows that 52.5% of adult Hispanics in Harris County are citizen. For Asians, the countywide ratio is 64.4%. Anglos and African-Americans are 96.6% and 96.2% respectively. That’s taken straight from the ACS survey data’s count of 18+ and CVAP. Interestingly, if you look at the combined Census Tract 4214 in Gulfton (bordered by Hillcroft, Gulfton, Renwick, and Bellaire), the 2010 Census counts 6,718 18+ Hispanics and the ACS counts 1,180 Citizen and Voting Age. That’s a conversion rate of 17.6%. Welcome to Gulton, ya’ll.

If you want to look around more of the data for Harris County and see some side-by-side comparisons, the combo map page is updated with the new map. As noted, the Google Earth file includes not just Harris County, but also Fort Bend, Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, Jefferson, and Montgomery counties. It’s fun for the entire family.

To those of you who might have witnessed a presentation given at the Houston 80-20 PAC dinner Sunday night, the links below should help send you deeper down the rabbit hole of maps and demographics. It’s always a pleasure to hang with one of my favorite local political groups and the interest in demographics by several of the folks at 80-20 events is always a relief. Enjoy the further reading and if there are other areas of interest that you’d like me to look into, I’m usually game for learning a little more about my favorite part of the world.

This post on Asian population by Houston-area neighborhood is the basis for the neighborhood-by-neighborhood number crunching. For some further reading on how Alief’s population (Asian and otherwise) is expected to change over the years, this may be some interesting reading. For some further reading on a part of the state that ranks 5th in terms of Asian population share, here’s an intro to Moore County, which is north of Amarillo.

– The big spaghetti-mess of an image that I talked about is the one below (click to enlarge). Its a block-level view of the maps done here (and the interactive/comparison views here) at the block group level. This update just takes things to a more granular level and reveals some interesting differences in southwest Houston and Alief from other parts of the county. I’ll talk about this more tomorrow in a separate blog post. For now … enjoy the sneak peak.

The color-coding is as follows: red represents an Anglo majority within the block; brown, a Hispanic majority; black, an African-American majority; green, an Asian majority; and yellow means that there is no majority. I’ve made a few tweaks to the code that generates this, so a few quirks are being ironed out and I may have something for more interactive viewing tomorrow.

– It occurs to me that I never bothered to break out the full Asian nationality breakdown here on the blog, so here’s that:

Harris County

Total Asian Population - 256,862
Vietnamese      87,693  (34.1%)
Indian          48,184  (18.8%)
Chinese         42,244  (16.4%)
Filipino        17,045  ( 6.6%)
Pakistani       16,821  ( 6.5%)
Korean          12,829  ( 5.0%)
Cambodian        4,118  ( 1.6%)
Japanese         4,022  ( 1.6%)
Taiwanese        3,715  ( 1.4%)
Bangladeshi      3,038  ( 1.2%)
Thai             2,865  ( 1.1%)
Laotian          1,846  ( 0.7%)
Indonesian         597  ( 0.2%)
Malaysian          587  ( 0.2%)
Sri Lankan         500  ( 0.2%)
Other Asian     10,758  ( 4.2%)

Fort Bend County

Total Asian Population - 101,213
Indian          37,318 (36.9%)
Chinese         22,481 (22.2%)
Vietnamese      15,517 (15.3%)
Filipino         9,218 ( 9.1%)
Pakistani        7,219 ( 7.1%)
Korean           3,179 ( 3.1%)
Japanese           779 ( 0.8%)
Malaysian          722 ( 0.7%)
Taiwanese          676 ( 0.7%)
Thai               252 ( 0.2%)
Indonesian         243 ( 0.2%)
Bangladeshi        190 ( 0.2%)
Cambodian          111 ( 0.1%)
Other            3,308 ( 3.3%)

I had intended to merely post this for the sake of artistry if nothing else, but a little bit of number-crunching proves that Cook County Illinois (ie – Chicago, home of Jake & Elwood, da Bears, etc) is another case in point where a majority-minority area becomes majority-Anglo when you look at it in terms of Citizen Voting Age Population and the likely electorate. And yes, I’m well aware that “Anglo” is wildly mislabeled when talking about the ethnic pool that is Chicago. Anyways, the CVAP-majority map is below. Click it to big it, if you’re that curious …


Legend: red = Anglo/caucasian majority; brown = Hispanic majority; black = African-American majority; green = Asian majority; yellow = no majority

The math is as follows:

----------------------------------------------------------------------
            COOK COUNTY              VAP               CVAP
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total ..... 5,194,675           3,962,395           3,415,340
Anglo ..... 2,278,358 (43.9%)   1,906,502 (48.1%)   1,840,731 (53.9%)
Hispanic .. 1,244,762 (24.0%)     822,242 (20.8%)     456,386 (13.4%)
Afr-Am .... 1,265,778 (24.4%)     923,363 (23.3%)     938,180 (27.5%)
Asian .....   318,869 ( 6.1%)     256,892 ( 6.5%)     151,352 ( 4.4%)

Interestingly, the African-American population grows in overall raw numbers from the Census Bureau’s VAP counts to the ACS’s CVAP counts.

Given the Dem-friendly tilt to the county, there’s obviously a substantial share of Anglo Dems presnet in the county. I think those of us who have read up on the old-school Daley machine can figure out a few differences here as opposed to the Anglo Dem areas in, say, Houston, Denver, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles, which have less ethnic diversity among the caucasian population. I haven’t gotten around to mapping any election results to compare and contrast, but my hunch is that the Jewish, GLBT & multi-degreed folk share of that segment might be a minority within the full “Anglo Dem” reach of the county.

In poking around through some election results, I did find it interesting that Dick Durbin outpolled Barack Obama in 2008 in the county (72.6% to 66.6%). Just glancing around for the most solidly-white areas of the county that I could find, Orland Park went 48.7% for Obama (with McCain winning the township) and 61.2% for Durbin. That was the most extreme case of Obama losing and Durbin winning that I could find. If I get my hands on some precinct results, there’s no telling what I’ll end up doing with Cook and a few surrounding counties.

For now, take it for whatever it’s worth to you. What I find striking is that the pattern of growth in what I label as “multicultural” areas, while substantial, doesn’t seem as striking in several other locations with sizable population shares among three or more demographic groups. Maybe that’s a homer bias on my part, maybe it’s because I haven’t gone through the trouble of mapping out the previous Census results to track the growth. But at first glance, it looks as if Houston, Los Angeles and New York represent the high end of the population share living in such a region. If I had an army of demographers, database geeks, and researchers, I’d probably do something like calculate out the Top 20 or so counties to see how each looks. I’m not quite putting that on my weekend to-do list, but it’s obviously something that’s going to gnaw away at me for a while until it does make the list.

ADD-ON: One of the more interesting redistricting doodles of the past couple of decades has been Illinois’ 4th Congressional District. It’s a challenge aimed at finding a way to draw a viable Hispanic district with the Hispanic population split geographically (not entirely dissimilar to how Houston’s 18th and 29th have to find some tight points of connection). So, for the sake of understanding, here’s why the new CD4 is drawn the way it is:

So, I’m slowly getting around to my list of other areas to map out and see what the demographics look like outside of Texas in some areas of interest. And while I’m neither as far along in looking around Denver’s Anglo Dem situation or in mapping the view of Los Angeles & Orange County that you see below. But what I do have below is the CVAP majority map by block group for both counties. I wanted to post this view of the two California counties since it’s an interesting view due to the multiple pockets of Hispanic and Asian populations in the region. But feel free to click and view it for your own interest and see what gets piqued for you …

In mapping out LA/Orange, I decided it was time to update the color-coding with a majority-Asian coding (green). So I’ll probably go back and map out Texas’ Fort Bend County to highlight the few areas where there are majorities there as well. In Harris County, there aren’t any majorities, but there are some solid mid-forties in a handful of block groups.

And after seeing how this view of LA/Orange looked in terms of CVAP, I’ll obviously get around to looking at it in Total Pop, Voting Age Pop, and also a Total Pop timeline view from 1980 through 2010. It should be pretty interesting to see how that area has changed over time, for much the same reason that the Houston changes have been interesting to see mapped out.

The city’s population estimate from the ACS data stands at 2,107,208.

Harris County counts are as follows. For the record, I had to calculate out the CVAP by manually backing out the “Not a Citizen” counts with a good old-fashioned calculator as I was drafting this post. I’ll be double-checking my math after breakfast and with a spreadsheet first thing when I get to the office.

American Community Survey 2010 1-yr Population Counts

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              HARRIS COUNTY            VAP                 CVAP
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total  ....     4,110,771          2,959,708          2,315,362
Anglo .....    1,347,895 (32.8%)  1,085,631 (36.7%)  1,045,360 (45.1%)
Hispanic ..    1,685,575 (41.0%)  1,092,302 (36.9%)    591,194 (25.5%)
Afr-Am ....      763,140 (18.6%)    555,276 (18.8%)    532,585 (23.0%)
Asian .....      254,078 ( 6.2%)    199,263 ( 6.7%)    123,235 ( 5.3%)

The 25.5% CVAP mark for Hispanic population should jump out as the DOJ considers the Harris County Commissioners map that somehow doesn’t find a way to build a CVAP majority Hispanic district out of the four commissioner precincts. The overall counts place the Harris County Hispanic CVAP Conversion rate at 54%. That’s substantially higher than the 2005-09 count of 45.7%.

You can compare these results to the 2010 Census results here. It’s worth noting that the CVAP counts (which are derived from the 2005-09 ACS data) are a few points higher than the previous counts. In large part, this seems due to the fact that the 1-yr ACS counts for 2010 don’t incorporate the older data points, which the 2005-09 ACS data does. Comparisons to the Census data aren’t perfect, but close enough. In other words, I wouldn’t get excited about a lot of 1-2 point moves.

That obviously makes this a bit of a bananas-to-plantains comparison, but it’s helpful to understand how the 1-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr counts move with each update since each has their own level of specificity and currency to factor in. The 1-yr, for instance, doesn’t offer enough granularity for me to map out things by Census Tract or Block Group. But it’s recent and the samples are sufficient enough for seeing how mid- to large cities look. The longer period data sets allow for more specificity down to a Census Tract or Block Group level. When the 5-yr datasets are released in December, I think we all know how I’ll be spending the holidays.

I’ll update with City of Houston, Baytown, Fort Bend County and Sugar Land numbers later today. And if time permits, I’ll see if I can do some comparisons to the 1-yr 2009 ACS data to see how these numbers have changed against that.

UPDATE: Slight correction on the Harris County numbers, as well as the fuller Houston-area cities included. I’m a bit surprised at some of the gaps in ACS data. For instance, Baytown Hispanics are measured, but not Baytown Anglos. Just as well, here’s the data. It’s been officially crunched with both spreadsheet and caffeine.

Harris County

----------------------------------------------------------------
           Total Pop             VAP              CVAP   
Total    4,110,771          2,959,708          2,315,362   
----------------------------------------------------------------
Anglo    1,347,895 (32.8%)  1,085,631 (36.7%)  1,045,360 (45.1%)
Hispanic 1,685,575 (41.0%)  1,092,302 (36.9%)    591,194 (25.5%)
Afr-Am     777,377 (18.9%)    555,276 (18.8%)    532,587 (23.0%)
Asian      256,862 ( 6.2%)    199,263 ( 6.7%)    123,235 ( 5.3%)

Ft. Bend County

----------------------------------------------------------------
           Total Pop             VAP                CVAP
Total      590,350            415,273            354,528   
----------------------------------------------------------------
Anglo      212,358 (36.0%)    159,649 (38.4%)    158,371 (44.7%)
Hispanic   140,885 (23.9%)     90,585 (21.8%)     60,356 (17.0%)
Afr-Am     129,339 (21.9%)     88,040 (21.2%)     84,611 (23.9%)
Asian      101,213 (17.1%)     72,582 (17.5%)     51,311 (14.5%)

Houston

----------------------------------------------------------------
           Total Pop            VAP                CVAP   
Total    2,107,208          1,564,915          1,160,654   
----------------------------------------------------------------
Anglo      541,525 (25.7%)    461,096 (29.5%)    436,501 (37.6%)
Hispanic   917,993 (43.6%)    617,601 (39.5%)    304,800 (26.3%)
Afr-Am     500,359 (23.7%)    369,857 (23.6%)    353,634 (30.5%)
Asian      131,075 ( 6.2%)    104,880 ( 6.7%)     56,799 ( 4.9%)

Sugar Land

----------------------------------------------------------------
           Total Pop            VAP                CVAP   
Total       79,472             60,755             52,217   
----------------------------------------------------------------
Anglo       35,235 (44.3%)     28,935 (47.6%)     27,657 (53.0%)
Hispanic     ***                ***                ***   
Afr-Am       ***                ***                ***   
Asian       28,597 (36.0%)     21,242 (35.0%)     15,743 (30.1%)

Pasadena

----------------------------------------------------------------
           Total Pop            VAP                CVAP   
Total      149,722            103,519             77,459   
----------------------------------------------------------------
Anglo       46,557 (31.1%)     39,329 (38.0%)     38,465 (49.7%)
Hispanic    93,763 (62.6%)     58,159 (56.2%)     33,684 (43.5%)
Afr-Am       ***                ***                ***   
Asian        3,539 ( 2.4%)      2,712 ( 2.6%)      2,130 ( 2.7%)

Baytown

----------------------------------------------------------------
           Total Pop            VAP                CVAP   
Total       72,418             53,056             45,878   
----------------------------------------------------------------
Anglo        ***                ***                ***   
Hispanic    31,381 (43.3%)     21,000 (39.6%)     14,211 (31.0%)
Afr-Am       ***                ***                ***   
Asian        ***                ***                ***