Taking a brief break from some dayjob duties to hash out some thoughts from last night. Kuff and Robert Miller have their takes posted. The Chron has their take, as well. I think it’s generally good practice to review where the prior predictions were and how they held up against reality. So here’s some background reading on my early calls. With that, here’s how I fared …
The first thing I’ll note is how wildly off my guess was about what the stay-at-home voters meant for Annise’s margin of victory. I had my marker down on the fact that she’d do substantially better in minority communities compared to her 2009 showing. I’ll wait until I have a draft canvass of the returns before offering a more substantive take, but a glance at Fort Bend shows that Annise got 48% of the vote there, with Kevin Simms a distant second at 23%. My hunch is that the gaggle of challengers just rotated out in terms of where each one got that 20-30% second-place showing, with the Mayor holding steady at around 45-55% of the vote. Obviously, the post-election dissection work that I thought was going to be fairly mundane this election may yet prove to be a bit more interesting.
Secondly, there’s this prediction for District A that Brenda Stardig was fine. What do I know? I’m a SWHOU kinda guy.
Speaking of that. One of the things I did manage to get right was my own backyard. Mike Laster carried District J handily and without a runoff. Ellen Cohen won outright. I didn’t want to predict that outright, but it was my very cautious hope. District F proved a little tricky. Whether that can be chalked up to the district’s tricky demographics, the nature of the incumbent, or the demographics/partisan lean of the challengers … I don’t think we have a great read on that yet. Suffice it to say that District F could throw some surprises at us during the decade. And in District K, everyone and their dead dog had Larry Green picked to win with a strong showing.
The At Larges had a number of interesting results, too.
Stephen Costello – The guy should think about spending some time getting known. When he won in 2009, not a lot of people voted for him in the first round and not a lot of people voted – period – in the runoff. For elections like this, it’s helpful to have a lot of people that are just accustomed to voting for you. He should have done better. The anti- spin will be that his showing results from his being a point person in the ReBuild/ReNew Houston setup. I don’t quite buy that because I think he’d fare worse if that was all that was known about him. If he has any aspirations beyond six years on council, there’s just no substitute for name ID.
The AL2 Mess – Elizabeth Perez finished in first place among Election Day voters. David Robinson (one of the white guys in the race) finished second with 24.5% in Fort Bend County. Eric Dick probably has more yard signs than votes cast for him. This contest may very well be the most interesting and complicated of all post-election maps that I’ll likely ever do. Fortunately, at least one sane candidate made the runoff and it’s the one I had hoped would make it: Kristi Thibaut. But man, what a contorted result in this contest.
Melissa Noriega – I think her 55.6% showing is open to interpretation as either a sign of the more challenging electoral times or a suggestion that raising some name ID wouldn’t hurt. However it’s spun, it’s her final term. So it won’t matter much. It’s worth noting that each candidate’s returns in this contest were pretty even for absentee, early, and E-Day. If there’s anything I look for in the post-election mapping/crunching, it’s seeing where Noriega doesn’t break 50% or places second in voting.
C.O. Bradford – has to be sitting pretty right about now. He finished with the best margin of incumbent At Larges despite some lingering negative name ID and a built-in base of opposition to African-American candidates among some voters. And just for good measure, I’m sure his name will be thrown back into the rumor mill for random names of people that might possibly think about considering a challenge of Annise Parker in 2013.
The Jack & JoJo Show – 38.3% JoJo …. 33.4% Jack. Compare that to 2009: 42.2% JoJo … 36.4% Jack. It’s a very marginal step back for JoJo, but as Kuff has repeatedly pointed out, her margin for error goes down without a Gene Locke campaign spending big bucks on citywide field. The runoffs in District A and B are a mix of not-so-good and great in terms of an energetic campaign bringing out anti- and pro-JoJo voters. Note that District B saw 9,017 votes cast to District A’s 7,901. That patterns also held up in terms of total ballots cast: 8,667 in A; 10,007 in B. By way of counterpoint to this ounce of good news for Team JoJo, the undervote in AL5 was lowest among the At Larges. That suggests that voters aren’t lacking an opinion in this contest. That’s not great for JoJo. And what happens to Anglo Dem voters in District C? Do they come out to vote? If so, where do they go? And will Bill White send out another pro-Jack letter? All this and more on the next episode of As The Runoff Turns.
As an aside in looking at the At Large runoffs together, I have a hard time seeing the needle threading such that both JoJo and Kristi win, though that’s obviously the outcome I’d most love to see. The more JoJo voters there are, then theoretically, the better the odds are for Andrew Burks. And the better things look for Kristi, the harder they look for JoJo. I really hope I’m wrong on this. The runoff will be hideously low, possibly repeating the 36k turnout we had in 2005. But it’s important to realize that the 2005 runoff had the benefit of the Clutterbuck v Hittner runoff in C. No dice this time around. So I’ll pick the under until I see an indication that the Jack & JoJo contest gets heated.
The two school-related contests were about as expected, though I’d rather see Manuel Rodriguez not rewarded. At least it was close and there’s something to be said about the difficulty of knocking off an incumbent. Even in a tough year for incumbents. In HCCC, Carroll Robinson carried the day 56-43. Oddly enough, I’m actually impressed that Jew Don Boney had it in him to be as competitive as he ended up being.
Runoffs are December 10. We do this all over again, albeit on a more limited scale. Maps galore once I get a draft canvass.
ADD-ON: Stace has his day-after post. Here’s his take on 2013:
Believe it or not, I think there is one person who is in the best position to challenge her in 2013, and it’s not perennial wannabe-a-candidate with free space in the Chron, and it’s not some other former activist-turned-wealthy lawyer. It’s that one At-Large member of Council who was handily re-elected and will have the ability to create a bully pulpit where he will be seen on a weekly basis. Some may argue money-raising ability, but we’ve learned that money may not be everything. Still, I’ll root for the Mayor.
Campos, meanwhile, take a different focus:
Commentary is not happy with the fact that H-Town CM Ed Gonzalez and a few other Latino and Latina leaders endorsed Criselda Romero in District J and not check with others before doing so. H-Town CM James Rodriguez who led the Latino redistricting effort on City Council was hoping for a vetting process to get a strong Latino candidate. CM Gonzalez and others decided to handpick a candidate who ended up being a weak candidate and we saw what happened last night. CM Gonzalez and others didn’t do much in terms of raising money or providing resources to help their candidate. Never again!
Cheap shot. Dude, your candidate finished last and actually raised less money than Criselda. So if you’re going to play the “weak candidate” card, there’s a little exposure on your side. And I say that as one who ended the campaign impressed with both Criselda and Rodrigo. The district wasn’t carried by Mike Laster because the internal machinations of Latino politics were given a monkey wrench instead of more WD-40. The bigger failing here is people from outside the district thinking they know how to win elections in SW Houston.
On that note, I’ll extend my own kudos to both Criselda Romero and Rodrigo Canedo. I voted for the other guy, but I hope that the lesson they leave with is that active civic involvement in SW Houston is a valuable asset. Both Romero and Canedo proved to be great examples of the type of home-grown talent that’s been hidden from political view in the district for too long. There’s more where that came from. Rodrigo was a great messenger for his involvement at Bo’s Place and I appreciate him mentioning that prominently at campaign events. That he also comes from a less-political world is certainly something that I view as a plus. Criselda Romero was a great reminder of the younger talent that comes out of SW Houston. I can easily see how her work in Ed Gonzalez’s district might pay a lot of dividends down the road as District J residents ask their council member to represent their interests. If the stars happen to align just right, I think it would be a plus for the district to see Mike Laster hire her out of Ed’s office. I would hope that this isn’t the last time I see either individual on the ballot and I’ve got better things to do than to tear either of them down. To each their own, I suppose. But if Marc’s not too busy tearing down people I think he owes Criselda an apology. That shot was just uncalled for.