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The Lovers, The Dreamers … and Maps!

October 1, 2012 Politics-2012 No Comments

» Washington Post: For Maryland Democrats, redistricting referendum forces a look in the mirror
» Washington Post: Maryland ad war coming over same-sex marriage vote
» Washington Post: Costs, benefits of Md. Dream Act hard for voters to measure

I foresee a lot of interesting post-election analysis out of Maryland this season. That is all.

Redistricting Harris County State Reps: First Draft

File this under “Ain’t Gonna Happen,” but this is the first semi-reasonable basis of a plan that I landed on after doodling around with Harris County State Rep districts. The assumption here is that there will still be 25 seats. But the dicier assumption is that Beverly Woolley draws herself out. For that reason, I don’t see this as being likely. At least not until I hear her retirement announcement.

But this draft accomplishes the tasks of protecting Legler and Bohac and a Baytown-based district. What’s new about this district is a Willowbrook-area district. That’s the way this map factors in the population growth on that side of town. What’s curious is that if such a new district were to sprout up in that area, it would mean that another Rep would have to go. I don’t see a way of mapping it out so that each of the incumbents’ homes are included in some magical tortilla strip to remain safe. The likelier target for this would seem to be Legler since dropping his district makes it easier to add population to Alvarado and Hernandez. As this draft stands, several of the Dem districts on the north side of town are woefully under-populated. I think that’s an inevitable bump in how the map-making proceeds in Austin. So it’ll be interesting to see how the ultimate, final map deals with it all.

Politically, this is drawn to be somewhat realistic in that I don’t see the GOP leadership in the county delegation drawing anything that has less than 13 GOP seats. But in a 2006/2008 style election, the map could easily become a 16-9 Dem map. What makes that possible, if the map were to sail through and become reality, is that Sarah Davis has a hard time being drawn significantly more safely than the current District 134 really is. Likewise, I think Districts 126 and 132 would look pretty interesting in a good Presidential year. 2010 is the GOP high-water mark for each district and the demographics are still changing in each of them. 132 could be drawn stronger, splitting the growing Democratic vote on the west side of town. The only thing working in favor of keeping 126 red is that Patricia Harless is on the Redistricting Committee.

But all of that raises one question in my mind: would it not be the smartest thing the GOP could do if they drew 12 pretty darned safe seats instead of shooting for 13? The demographics of Harris County are going to push the GOP out in some significant ways this decade.

Legally, there’s an issue with Farrar’s district. She’d have no problem being elected out of that district. But after her, the growing Anglo population in the Heights makes it less likely that Hispanic voters have a strong enough situation to elect a Representative of their choosing. It’s not dissimilar to the results seen in the City Council District H special election in 2009. It’s also symptomatic of the decrease in Hispanic population seen in the current iteration of Farrar’s district. The challenge is this: does this mean that the Heights is going to have to be drawn in with Bohac’s district? Coleman’s Afr.-Am. numbers are already on the low side, so it’s unlikely that you could add Montrose to his district.

There are two drivers that I see making the drawing a challenge … the diffusion of minority voting age population places a bind on the GOP’s ability to do another HD133/HD126 drawing in the present map. Those minority populations are now too valuable and necessary for VRA districts in order to keep a redistricted map VRA-compliant. But the same phenomenon also places Hispanic and African-American boundary lines at risk due to a large number of precincts being roughly 40% Hispanic and 40% African-American. In other words, it’s not hard to draw an appropriate number of Hispanic districts in theory … but the political realities that go along with redistricting are likely to make it more contentious.

Anyways, here’s the draft map. Number for Voting Age Population and 2010 Governor election math is below.

Perry   White                     Population  Dev.   Hisp.   Anglo   Afram   Asian
59.7%   38.6%  126  Harless     R   166,301  -0.80%   25.9%   46.7%   18.0%   7.9%
63.9%   34.2%  127  Huberty     R   163,413  -2.52%   19.4%   64.0%   12.1%   3.0%
59.8%   38.3%  128  Smith       R   161,991  -3.37%   30.6%   55.1%   11.7%   1.3%
56.2%   41.9%  129  Davis       R   167,855   0.13%   19.7%   62.8%    6.8%   8.9%
64.9%   33.4%  130  Fletcher    R   168,764   0.67%   24.6%   54.3%   11.8%   7.9%
20.6%   78.2%  131  Allen     D     174,564   4.13%   42.7%    9.1%   40.2%   6.9%
59.5%   38.6%  132  Calegari    R   169,641   1.20%   39.6%   38.1%   14.0%   6.8%
62.3%   34.9%  133  Murphy      R   165,313  -1.39%   18.4%   58.0%   11.3%  10.4%
51.7%   46.9%  134  Davis       R   166,183  -0.87%   12.4%   71.4%    4.0%  10.6%
56.8%   41.5%  135  Elkins      R   171,150   2.10%   44.1%   36.9%    8.2%   9.5%
60.1%   38.4%  136  Bohac       R   166,362  -0.76%   35.9%   51.4%    5.7%   5.7%
39.3%   58.8%  137  Hochberg  D     173,074   3.24%   53.6%   18.7%   15.9%  10.3%
63.5%   34.7%  138  OPEN        R   164,240  -2.03%   23.6%   52.9%   11.8%  10.1%
19.6%   79.3%  139  Turner    D     147,490 -12.02%   39.1%   12.4%   42.9%   4.7%
37.5%   60.9%  140  Walle     D     157,662  -5.95%   79.2%   11.6%    7.8%   0.8%
37.9%   60.7%  141  Thompson  D     151,869  -9.41%   38.3%   12.1%   44.7%   3.7%
20.0%   79.1%  142  Dutton    D     145,031 -13.49%   30.8%   14.1%   52.9%   1.2%
42.1%   56.5%  143  Hernandez D     163,235  -2.63%   61.6%   20.1%   15.7%   1.7%
52.8%   45.3%  144  Legler      R   165,181  -1.47%   58.3%   34.4%    4.3%   2.1%
29.6%   68.7%  145  Alvarado  D     170,005   1.41%   85.9%    9.4%    2.8%   1.3%
24.7%   74.0%  146  Miles     D     168,300   0.40%   20.6%   23.8%   45.9%   8.3%
26.5%   72.1%  147  Coleman   D     164,426  -1.92%   34.7%   19.5%   37.0%   7.5%
34.2%   63.7%  148  Farrar    D     146,877 -12.38%   38.8%   45.4%   11.0%   3.2%
42.5%   56.1%  149  Vo        D     170,821   1.90%   35.6%   15.1%   25.7%  22.0%
68.4%   29.7%  150  Riddle      R   162,577  -3.02%   17.5%   67.3%    7.5%   6.1%

Second Effort at a Full Citywide Redistricting Plan

February 25, 2011 Houston/Harris 17 Comments

Just in case anyone stumbling onto the blog is looking for “those maps,” here’s a revised version of the original I posted. It’s a little bit cleaner in terms of neighborhood contiguity, but still has some potential questions about political feasibility.

A bit of a repeat point from the original map, but my bias are as follows:

- Find a way to create a third Hispanic seat. This revision has Ed Gonzalez in the northern (red/orange) district and I think he’d win it despite the loss in Hispanic voting strength.

- Maximize the Asian population within a new District F.

- Create an additional minority district as one of the new districts. Fort Bend County strikes me as a worthwhile candidate for this, but I’m not 100% married to it being centered there.

- Montrose + District C … and Heights, if possible.

The feasibility of that third district is going to be interesting to watch as the process goes forward. Both the southern and northern Hispanic districts would clock in at under 50% Hispanic in terms of CVAP population and likely electorate in a city election year (especially a super-low turnout year like this year should be). I may be on the optimistic side, but I don’t see either Gonzalez or Rodriguez having much problem for the duration of their council tenure. The “new” East End district is the most secure opportunity for Hispanics to elect a candidate of their choosing. Part of the argument I’d put forward for the incumbent-occupied districts is that they each include enough non-Anglo voters to be able to have a majority non-Anglo CVAP. Also, the Hispanic numbers would be likely to grow over the decade. Obviously, I’ll be wracking my brain with this configuration once the City opens up their redistricting kiosk. But, generally, I think there’s something to like about seeing a map that gives three very distinct Hispanic communities a strong voice in city elections.

It should be evident that District E has a bit more taken out along the eastern border as I believe it may be needed for contiguity. I’m still hoping there would be a way to put some of that back into District I in order to boost the Hispanic numbers. Another negative side-effect of that move is that Dist. I eats into District D a bit now – that’s something that I think will be argued against as many of those same folks aren’t happy with being in either I or E. Spring Branch is a little bit more whole in the new A. And yes, the new C contains Ellen Cohen’s home precinct.

Population-wise, this checks out against the 2008 estimates. I’d post demographics, but I’ll probably have a plan developed on the city’s setup within a week or so. So I’ll save the full details until then, if that’s cool.

Questions? … complaints? That’s what comments are for.

Zoomed In:

Zoomed Out:

Houston Challenges 2.099M

February 23, 2011 Houston/Harris 1 Comment

» Chron: City to challenge census count

Mayor Parker throws a yellow flag onto the field, essentially asking for a recount …

The city of Houston will ask the U.S. Census Bureau to change its official count, raising questions about whether some apartment complexes or even entire neighborhoods were missed.

Houston’s population is 2,099,451, according to Census data released last week. That’s more than 100,000 fewer people than earlier estimates, and slightly below the 2.1 million that triggers an expansion of City Council to 16 members.

The expansion is still on, as city planners and independent researchers try to determine what went wrong.

I think it’s probably a no-win situation that the City has to put up with here. If you don’t expand, you get sued by one side. If you do expand, you get sued by the other. For my view, it’s better to plan forward for the decade and add the districts now. If you hold off until 2 more years, the end result would simply be that you divide districts by 11 with the same data everyone is looking at now.

DIY Redistricting

February 15, 2011 2011 Redistricting 2 Comments

» The Tennessean: Do-it-yourself redistricting gives citizens a voice

Have I mentioned what a great tool Dave’s Redistricting App is? Well now the Tennessean is in on the secret.

On his own time, Bradlee built “Dave’s Redistricting App,” an online mapping tool. It’s free, and anyone can use it. You choose a state, decide how many districts to slice it into and then click away, coloring the map into lots of tiny pieces. As you draw your own congressional or state legislative districts, the app spits out Census data on each one’s population and racial composition. With a little persistence, anyone can produce his own redistricting plan.

Bradlee quickly discovered he wasn’t alone in his passions. Since the app went live in 2009, hundreds of people have used it to draw political maps; the site is now live for every state but Alaska.

You can check the “Recent Diaries” sidebar on Swing State Project to see a constantly-growing list of user-generated maps and redistricting plans. I can’t state that it’s the most productive hobby in the world to generate maps like that, but it’s incredibly instructive in learning about a state or region. Most of those are created for Congressional maps, but you can create maps for any single member districts if you have a ballpark idea of what to have for population per district. My own backgrounder on using the tool was posted here after a little bit of interest was generated at a redistricting forum put on at St. Thomas University.

For a newsy/opinionated take on the open-ness of redistricting, I’ll suggest this read by Michael McDonald and Micah Altman from last July. Among the points I think they raise are the fact that states and localities have been slow to open up the software needed to allow citizens to redistrict on their own. Understandably, cost has been a factor as budgets are beyond tight these days. The City of Houston will allow anyone who can make it to the Planning Department the opportunity to create their own district and submit it for consideration. Texas allows the same if you can make it to Austin. But while the software for doing so is made freely available to legislators on their state-issued laptops, it is not offered for download by private citizens.

I am working on a project to allow for greater ease in exploring census data in Texas. It’s not quite the same as a redistricting application and I doubt that I’ll get around to coding for that. But if it’s of any use or interest to anyone, CensusThing.com is a work in progress that might be of interest. I’ve found it helpful in answering a number of questions that go into redistricting and it’s helpful in a number of other areas, as well. If you’ve got any feedback on making it better and more user-friendly, feel free to drop a comment or an email my way. Consider yourselves beta-testers. I’ll be updating the 2010 Census data as soon as I’ve got it databased.

Let the Lawsuits Begin!

» Texas Tribune: Texas Redistricting Lawsuit: Count Citizens Only

Seems early for this, but I guess there’s no time like the present:

Attorney Michael Hull of Austin, representing three North Texas voters, sued the state and a bunch of others, alleging that counting undocumented immigrants in political districts has an unfair and illegal effect on voters in districts with smaller numbers of non-citizens.

The logic goes this way: If two districts have the same populations and one has more non-citizens than the other, it takes fewer voters in that district to swing an election. Fewer citizens means fewer voters means a smaller number makes a majority. Each vote is, compared to the district with more citizens, worth more.

There’s a variety of ways that I think that either the lege or rightwing legal activists will test redistricting this year and this was one of the expected routes. As protective as GOP electeds have been of the judiciary during years of Democratic administrations, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3-judge panel move this along. Where it ends up, though, may be more of an open question. Either you accept that representation is determined by population, or you start whittling away at what the Constitution considers an American population.

So what’s left to run through the courts in terms of abstract arguments like this? I haven’t dived deep into the legal side of redistricting yet, but I don’t seem to recall there being something that really challenges the Voting Rights Act – namely Section 5. That should be expected somewhere, if not Texas. But the more impactful challenge will be to see which entities attempt a judicial bail-out of preclearance. That one, I’d expect the lege to try with our maps here in Texas. Whether that is accompanied by any significant regression in minority representation remains to be seen.

A Few Notes From the LWV Redistricting Forum

February 12, 2011 Houston/Harris No Comments

So, Thursday night was another redistricting forum around town. This time, it was a League of Women Voters event at the Judson Robinson Community Center. A few points to highlight from a couple of folks on the panel:

From Doc Murray’s discussion …
- The GOP would be making a huge mistake to redistrict according to 2010 turnout. Couldn’t agree more. Not that I wouldn’t mind if they tried, because it could ultimately lead to an interesting wave of new Democratic elected officials in some very interesting parts of the state. In the comments of another post, I started to lay out a bit of what it means to redistrict after a “high tide” election. The Travis County experience in 2001 for the GOP is pretty instructive here. See the comment for the nickel version of the story.

- He thinks the calculation for number of State Rep seats for Harris County will come in between 24.6 and 24.7. Go ahead and call me the pessimist on this one. I think it won’t be able to be rounded up to 25 this time. I’m a bit more of a stickler for harder, more concrete evidence … Dr. Murray is fairly good at projecting out. We’ll see which one of us knows our stuff once the numbers are in. But this’ll be among the first things I look at when the data rolls out.

And from Carroll Robinson …
- More African-Americans live outside of the 610 Loop than live within it. I’m not sure why that sounded as surprising as it did at the meeting. Considering the concentrations of Fifth Ward and Sunnyside that exist outside of the Loop – and the fact that only a portion of Fifth Ward and most/all of Third Ward exist within the Loop, and it seems fairly common sense that the math would support that assertion. But there is something to say that much of the growth that exists in many ethnic communities in Harris County does take place outside of the traditionally understood areas of ethnic populations. I’ve been screaming that point from the mountaintops with regard to Hispanics in Harris County.

There was quite a bit made of Voter ID at the event: Carroll brought it up initially, and the guy from MALDEF carried it a little as well. I honestly don’t know what that has to do with redistricting, but I can at least appreciate that it’s a very hot topic with LWV types who get the obvious impact it will have on the rights of voters.

It was a little odd watching a presentation of an African-American, a Hispanic, and an Asian, talking about redistricting from their perspectives to an audience that was skewed to the older and more Anglo side of the spectrum. As you can expect, there was the obvious (yet humorously polite) question about why race should matter. Unexpected by at least me was the one paranoid crank who had a nice, lengthy pitch about “black-box voting” when people were supposed to be asking questions of the panel. In fairness to the guy, he did identify himself properly by wearing a hoodie.

Thursday: League of Women Voters Redistricting Forum

February 9, 2011 2011 Redistricting No Comments

In case you either need to learn a little bit about redistricting, or know where to find me on Thursday night …

The League of Women Voters of the Houston Area Presents

Redistricting: Are You Being Represented?

Thursday, Feb. 10th at 5:30 p.m.
Judson Robinson Jr. Community Center
2020 Hermann Drive 77004

Keynote Speaker
Dr. Richard W. Murray, University of Houston, Hobby Center for Public Policy

Panel Discussion Featuring
Rogene Calvert, Texas Asian-American Redistricting Initiative
Claudia Ortega-Hogue, National Association of Latino Elected Officials
Carroll Robinson, National Association for the Advancement of Colored People

Moderated by
Mary Benton, KPRC-Channel Two and On the Beat with Mary Benton Blog

A panel will provide an overview and historical context to understand redistricting. The U. S. Constitution requires apportionment after the decennial census and the Texas legislature draws new State Senate, State Representative, State Board of Education and US Congressional district lines. This year, the Houston City Council will be adding two new council districts and redrawing all the district lines. Since the elected officials will be drawing the lines, political party and incumbent interests will be considered. But will your interests be considered? Citizens should know how the process works and how each can become involved. Come learn how you can engage in the redistricting process and how you can educate your friends and neighbors on the importance of their participation in the process.

Light refreshments available.
Learn more at www.LWVHouston.org. RSVP before noon Feb. 9, 2011 by calling 713.784.2923 or emailing lwv@lwvhouston.org. All Houstonians are welcome to attend for free.

Hot Off the Presses … Census Data

February 4, 2011 2011 Redistricting 6 Comments

Census data is starting to roll out

U.S. racial minorities accounted for roughly 85 percent of the nation’s population growth over the last decade – one of the largest shares ever – with Hispanics accounting for much of the gain in many of the states picking up new House seats.

Preliminary census estimates also suggest the number of multiracial Americans jumped roughly 20 percent since 2000, to over 5 million.

That’s certainly a similar story to what we’ve seen in the early reading of the Texas numbers. But does it necessarily mean that it will translate into more political seats with Hispanic voters electing Democratic, Hispanic electeds? SMU prof Cal Jillson suggests not

Dr. Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, said he thinks reapportionment will result in two solidly Republican districts — one in the Harris-Fort Bend County area around Houston and one in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

“The one here will probably look a lot like Martin Frost’s old district, from southwest Dallas to the Mid-Cities to southeast Fort Worth,” Jillson said. “Certainly Hispanic growth in Dallas has been in the western part of the city, but the Mid-Cities would make [the district] Republican-leaning.”

That may or may not be the most possible thing in the world. I’ll certainly be interested to test this idea out, but it still strikes me as far better for the GOP to pack Dem voters into a new DFW seat in the region Jillson mentions in order to make a few other GOP electeds more secure.

Meanwhile, the numbers from Louisiana aren’t good for New Orleans

The Census Bureau reported on Thursday that 343,829 people were living in the city of New Orleans on April 1, 2010, four years and seven months after it was virtually emptied by the floodwaters that followed the hurricane.

The numbers portray a significantly smaller city than in the previous census, in 2000, though it should be said that New Orleans had been steadily shrinking even then. In 1990, it was the 24th-biggest city in the country, in 2000, the 31st, and now it has surely dropped from the top 50.

The latest figure is lower than estimates cited widely by many here in recent months. It is lower, by roughly 10,000, than the official census estimate in the summer of 2009.

I think it’s safe to say that the political impact of this is much easier to guess at. But as the story suggests, it may even have the impact of removing the focus of the state’s sole African-American VRA seat away from New Orleans and toward Baton Rouge.

Much of the early round of details are coming in from states that have gotten their redistricting data this week. The first round went to states that have elections this year (Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, Virginia) and, hence, tighter deadlines for redistricting. Mississippi seems to have an impossible deadline issue with their redistricting, though.

The next round of states for next week are Arkansas, Iowa, Indiana, Maryland, and Vermont. Since I’d posted before on a peculiar situation with Baltimore drafting their city council map prior to Census data being released, I’d be remiss to point out a factoid from this article, which is that the city charter dictates that a new plan must be presented to council on January 31. I’m guessing that population shifts in Baltimore may be minimal, but it still strikes me as an oddity that could be easily fixed.

With a little luck, data for Texas should be coming up the following week. You know how I’ll be spending my time once it’s out.

The Supporting Cast of Redistricting

January 28, 2011 2011 Redistricting No Comments

» National Journal: Redistricting Q&A: Bill Burke

Another in the National Journal’s series on redistricting, Bill Burke is the executive director of the Foundation for the Future, a 527 group that lends some expertise to Dems in various state legislatures. The grand sum of the Q&A isn’t terribly enlightening, but this exchange seems like an interesting highlight for states where term limits are a factor.

Hotline: When you meet with state legislative leaders, have you found their technical expertise in drawing maps and understanding the process to be lacking?

BB: I won’t say that. What I will say is that because of term limits, a lot of leaders were not around in the last round of redistricting and have no experience with it. In some states, their staff was around the last time and still is around; but it varies – widely. So when we’ve gone in, we’ve just assumed that we’re starting from scratch.

HISD Redistricting: The Easy One

January 24, 2011 Houston/Harris No Comments

Not a great deal to say that’s exciting about the redistricting process for HISD. Most of the the lines are going to move just marginally to account for population growth differentials in varying parts of the school district. Among the local rounds of redistricting, it should be the smoothest of all involved. But, for the sake of thoroughness, here’s the presentation made to HISD by the law firm handling redistricting. There’s some good overview info in here. The timeline is a bit on the general side, but it’s worth pointing out that HISD elections are up in November. So while the process should go smoothly, they’re still under the gun for getting everything finished by the September 7 filing deadline.

Redistricting 12-16-2010

NALEO on Redistricting

January 15, 2011 2011 Redistricting No Comments

» Hotline: Redistricting Q&A: Arturo Vargas

Another in the series of Hotline’s redistricting interviews. This time, it’s with the executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials and a focus on the opportunities and challenges that Hispanic and Latino populations will have in ensuring their ability to elect candidates of their choice. I think it’s pretty obvious that Texas will be more than a bit player in that drama.

While the whole back & forth is worth reading, I’ll highlight one exchange on the intricacies of line-drawing …

Hotline: There have been a lot of shifts in California. Even though it has kept the same number of seats, there’s been a bit of whites leaving and a large growth in the Latino community. Are you expecting more majority-minority districts this time around?

AV: We’re hoping to. Keep in mind that despite the fact California didn’t increase in congressional seats, they had one of the largest actual population increases of any state. Their population increased by 3.5 million people in the decade. Again, the majority of that population growth was Latino, followed by Asians. I think what may happen this time is we may actually wind up seeing some potential for tension in preserving the same number of African American districts, especially in South Los Angeles. You have three African American congressional seats right next to each other, and you have the ocean to the west, you have Jane Harman (D) and Henry Waxman (D) to the north, and to the east you have all the Latino districts. These districts have to grow to absorb more population, and they’re going to bump into each other. And at some point, in order to preserve these African American districts the west side districts can only go so far east before they start infringing upon the effectiveness of Hispanic districts.

It’s one thing to bemoan “gerrymanding” before really understanding that just because a district looks funny, that doesn’t mean it’s something nefarious. In several cases, the result can grow from drawing lines in a way that ensures enough population of minority groups to ensure their ability to elect candidates of their choice. If we lived in a perfect world and every district looked like an outline of Kansas, I don’t think it would just be those population groups complaining about the end result. Something to keep in mind for areas in Harris County, such as Pasadena or Spring Branch … it may be preferred to keep those communities intact for as many levels of representation as possible, but I suspect that when a lot of Anglos in those communities start seeing themselves outvoted by the growing Hispanic communities in their areas, you’ll hear a lot less about unity and cohesion. Just ask the people of Farmers Branch.

Redistricting: First Take for Harris County Commissioner Precincts

January 9, 2011 Houston/Harris 1 Comment

First take at what Harris County redistricting might look like for the four County Commissioner precincts. There are some big assumptions that lead to what kind of map you end up drawing for these jurisdictions. Mine assumes that Jerry Eversole is no longer needing to be protected. I don’t know if that scenario is warranted, but one thing becomes clear when trying to draw a 2R-2D map – it’s awfully hard to defend the argument that the Hispanic population in Harris County is too diffuse for a single opportunity district. The green district below is about what it would take to accomplish that and as you can see, the counterargument may be that it lacks compactness. The connecting precincts in the northeast corner might be a particular issue in need of finessing if this plan were to become a reality.

With Roads:

With blank background:

The composition of the precincts is as follows:

Precinct 1 (purple): Anglo – 16%; Black – 49%; Hispanic – 27%; Asian – 8% // Obama – 82%; McCain – 18%
El Franco Lee maintains a safe African-American opportunity district. The black percentage in the precinct could use some improvement given the numbers available in Dave’s Redistricting App, but the population shift within the county may mean that the precinct might need to take on an Anglo Dem area like Meyerland. That’d be defensible as a coalition jurisdiction, especially since I found myself adding Montrose to it in the first place.

Precinct 2 (green): Anglo – 27%; Black – 12%; Hispanic – 58%; Asian – 4% // Obama – 60%; McCain – 39%
The fact that there is no problem drawing a >55% Hispanic district in Texas may force the issue of the partisan composition of the 2011 precincts. Recall that the existing Precinct 2 is a function of the late Commissioner Jim Fonteno. He had represented a Baytown and Crosby region that was historically Democratic in the past, adding Hispanic precincts over time. As demography and partisanship settled, the district grew to the 50-50 swing district that we now know it to be. Trying to find a way to take the basic structure of Pct. 2 and making Jack Morman safer for the next decade will, by default, represent retrogression of the Hispanic population’s voting strength. So it makes some sense in this particular scenario to just draw a better Hispanic district and define the Anglo GOP ring around the county more faithfully.

Precinct 3 (pink): Anglo – 61%; Black – 7%; Hispanic – 23%; Asian – 9% // Obama – 40%; McCain – 59%
Knowing that Steve Radack will be the one drawing these lines, I’m not certain that he’ll leave things to chance with a district under 60% GOP. So there is some obvious self-interest on his part to seeing the district made a little safer. Noting the situation with intra-county population shift in Pct. 1, losing Meyerland would help a little. Losing Gulfton would help more. We’ll see soon enough if the population shift is warranted for that to happen. Otherwise, where Radack & Morman agree to draw the line in Champions Forest is a pretty big open question.

Precinct 4 (orange): Anglo – 69%; Black – 6%; Hispanic – 20%; Asian – 5% // Obama – 33%; McCain – 67%
Nothing terribly surprising about the way this region is put together. About the only anomaly I accounted for was leaving Pasadena fairly whole, as I suspect their city leaders will argue for that and staying whole with the other refinery towns in the southeast. The fact that this district contains a few Hispanic pockets due to this is another telling indicator of the fact that a Hispanic opportunity district for Harris County may be inevitable.

As time permits, I’ll try to draw a map that protects three GOP County Commissioners. I expect that to be tough and it should demonstrate the challenges of improving on this from a partisan GOP perspective.

Straight Into Compton!

December 31, 2010 2011 Redistricting 2 Comments

» AP: Suit seeks to open Compton to Latino voters

Another blow to the “Big Sort” theory?

Although Compton has gone from a predominantly African American community to a city that is two-thirds Latino over the last two decades, no Latino candidate has ever been elected to the City Council or any other city office. Since 2000, six Latino candidates have waged unsuccessful campaigns.

But that may be about to change.

Earlier this month, three Latina residents sued the city under the 2001 California Voting Rights Act, contending that its at-large council elections violate Latinos’ civil rights by diluting their voting power.

It’s hardly unexpected that we’ll see more of this as we have fresh Census numbers coming out that will offer the proof that a lot of neighborhoods have felt and sensed for a long time already.

Redistricting: Three Things to Say

December 27, 2010 2011 Redistricting No Comments

» Hotline On Call: Redistricting Q&A: Mike Thompson

Continuing the holiday redistricting Q&A, California Congressman, Mike Thompson seems a little too zoned in on his talking points about what the Democratic side of Congress is shooting for this cycle. For what it’s worth, they plan to have accurate numbers, know what the law is, and make sure that the state delegations have that info. It goes on and on like that after practically every question. And yes, it’s exactly that exciting each time.

For whatever it’s worth, I expect the “accurate numbers” bit of info to be a bit subjective.

The Last Time Twenty Four was Twenty Five

December 22, 2010 2011 Redistricting No Comments

For your consideration, the last time Harris County was being debated over for 24 vs 25 State Rep seats. Of particular interest, check the arguments that then-State Rep. Robert Talton uses to defend not just the case for 25 seats, but also the case for partisan representation (the county is no longer monolithically GOP at the county level), and the assumption that certain representatives – while having a constituency in southeast Harris County – aren’t considered representative of the area. These are all arguments that you make when the facts fit, not as a matter of ideology. Many of them may be heard by some who stood to benefit from the debate in 2001, yet may no longer benefit under the same logic.

This is from Day 68 of the 77th session


CHAIR: Mr. Talton.

TALTON: Will the gentleman yield?


CHAIR: Gentleman yields, Mr. Talton.

TALTON: Thank you, Mr. Speaker. Chairman Jones, I have a few questions I’d like to discuss with you regarding Harris County. As you know, Harris County, I believe, under your plan has gone from 25 to 24, is that correct?

D. JONES: That’s correct.

TALTON: And you’ve also said in your opening statements that it was to look at the communities of interest and try to represent the people of Texas and the people in those communities, is that correct?

D. JONES: That’s correct.

TALTON: And do you remember having a breakfast with the mayor of Pasadena and others regarding the city of Pasadena?

D. JONES: I recall that breakfast.

TALTON: And you, you are aware that Pasadena is the second-largest city in Harris county at 140,000?

D. JONES: Yes.

TALTON: And their concern was that they would like to have their own representative, is that correct?

D. JONES: I beg your pardon?

TALTON: And their concern was they wanted to have one state representative, is that right?

D. JONES: Yes, that was one of their expressions to me.

TALTON: In other words, they thought that they had too many and the town was broken up. Would you, would that be a good implication from your conversation with them?

D. JONES: I beg your pardon?

TALTON: I said, would it be fair to say that they just felt like that they had too many state representatives dividing up their town?

D. JONES: I think that was one of the points that they brought out.

TALTON: Now today, prior to this plan, the city of Pasadena is broken up into four, but under your plan it will now be five, is that correct?

D. JONES: I’ll accept that as correct because you’re familiar with it.

TALTON: Mr. Jones, also, do you think it’s fair, (I just did this since my district is paired and looked at it because I have most of Pasadena, compared to the other areas), but are you aware that when you look at southeast Harris County, in general, that you have over 500,000 people with one resident state representative under your plan? Are you aware of that?

D. JONES: I would question that, but if you say it’s true, I certainly would not question you.

TALTON: After your plan, if your plan passes and becomes law, there would only be Representative Davis that would be representing southeast Harris County.

D. JONES: If there are 500,000 people there…

TALTON: Yes, sir. If you’ll look at Pasadena, Deer Park, La Porte, Clear Lake, Sagemont, you’ll take all those from the ship channel to the Harris County line, all the way around to Clear Creek, and Clear Creek to the Beltway, or even up to, Beltway to I-45 and I-45 to 225, to the 610 bridge in the ship channel again; if you took that area which is considered southeast Harris County in Harris County, then you have approximately 500,000 people with one resident state rep after the election, if your plan is passed.

D. JONES: If your numbers are correct under the census, then that 500,000 people will have three or more representatives because we have complied with the requirement of meeting “one person, one vote”-which means 139,000, (ideal number), up to about 145,000, (maximum). So if there’s 500,000 in that area you described, they have got to have more than one representative.

TALTON: No, sir. If you will look at your plan, I did the numbers assuming that the census data that we have on our RedAppl is correct, and I assume that it is, that after the election that there would be only one resident state rep, Representative Davis and, quite frankly, I do not think that is fair to southeast Harris County.

D. JONES: We accept your opinion.

TALTON: And also, I’d like to point out to Harris County, you have dropped us from 25 to 24.

D. JONES: That’s correct.

TALTON: Is that correct?

D. JONES: That’s correct.

TALTON: Are you aware that there is not one countywide elected Democrat in Harris County and under your plan it would be 14 Democrats and 10 [Republicans], and possibly 15 Democrats and nine [Republicans] in Harris County after the election of 2003? Do you think that’s fair?

D. JONES: I think our total plan is fair, yes.

TALTON: Mr. Jones, how can you say that it’s fair when you have countywide elected officials that are Republicans that win and then under your plan you have 14 Democrats and 10 Republicans? Can you answer me that question, in how that is fair?

D. JONES: When we considered all of the restrictions and guidelines, and they were all applied to Harris County just as they were the rest of the state, it developed this plan that we are discussing of 24 members. And let me digress a moment from the immediate question and review that taking of the total census population of Harris County. Harris County was, quote, entitled to 24.4 house seats. We, if you recall in our meeting with Harris County delegation, requested that the delegation consider two plans. One, a 24-membership plan and another, a 25-membership plan. And the reason for that was that because of the Harris County situation, population-wise and I don’t mean that critically, that as we developed the entire plan for the entire state, there was always a possibility that we would end up with a pattern that created only 125 districts in other parts of the state. And I told the delegation when I met with them that I would request a 25-member plan and a 24-member plan because if we should have developed only 125 districts, then we could go above our guideline rule of those districts, those counties with a proportionate district above 50 percent would get the above number, those below, the lesser number. Harris County was one of those below but we were prepared to put in 25 districts in the event the total plan developed only 125, it would let us violate that rule. As it eventually developed, we had 126 under the new merit distribution that we’re required to follow, and we then went to the 24-member plan instead of the 25-member plan.

TALTON: Mr. Jones, you are familiar, are you not, with the Texas Constitution, because you’ve been doing this redistricting for a long time, have you not?

D. JONES: It seems a lot longer than it really has been, I think.

TALTON: And you are aware of what happened in 1991 with Bexar County when they had 10.47 and they were given 11, and now we have Harris County with 24.46 who is growing at 20.66 percent, which you remember I testified to in the committee, and you’re going to give it to someone other than Harris County, one of the fastest-growing counties, large[st] counties in the state? I don’t think that’s fair to my area, southeast Harris County, or to Harris County or, quite frankly, it’s not fair to the State of Texas. Thank you.

D. JONES: Thank you.

Reapportionment, Simplified

December 21, 2010 Census Stuff No Comments

… in machine form:

HC: Minus One?, Ctd.

December 21, 2010 2011 Redistricting No Comments

One additional point to make about what the Harris County numbers mean – someone’s going to have to go.

The obvious starting point for consideration is Anglo Dems. And there’s only one of those left: Scott Hochberg. The problem is that his district is a minority-majority district. It can’t be eliminated without risking the Justice Department declaring that it retrogresses minority representation. Tough to do when it’s easy to point out that the county’s minority population has grown in the county over the last decade. I don’t doubt that the mapmakers might try to make it harder for Hochberg, as they did with both him and Debra Danburg in 2001.

So what options does that leave?

- Try fracking HD137 and see if you get away with it.
This would involve re-working the three African-American districts on the south side and maybe having a new district for Sarah Davis pick up some precincts as well. It would result in one less minority district in the county and all logic would dictate that the Obama Justice Department would not look kindly on that type of maneuver. But sometimes you just don’t know unless you try. The precedent for this is how Republicans treated Ken Yarborough’s and Fred Bosse’s seats in 2001. But they had a friendlier Justice Department in 2001.

- Who’s on the %*&$ list of Speaker Straus?
Assuming Straus survives to bang the gavel for another day (as I suspect he will), there may be some revenge to extract. Unfortunately for this scenario, there hasn’t been a lot of Harris County activity on the “true Christian Speaker” front. One name that has been removed from the Straus list, though, is Debbie Riddle. Both Riddle and Allen Fletcher are from the Tomball area. Add to this, the possibility that Patricia Harless might like to trade up for some of the more GOP-friendly turf north of her district and shed some of the Dem-leaning area in the existing southern part of her district, and you’ve got a potential situation for Riddle this session.

- Cross your fingers and hope one of your own retires?
Oldest members first. Wayne Smith? Beverly Woolley? Anyone? Smith leaving would leave Baytown to rip apart – possibly splitting Hispanic precincts in Ana Hernandez’s district and Anglo precincts in something safer for Legler. Woolley leaving would be great news for Sarah Davis, Jim Murphy, and Dwayne Bohac. They’d all get precincts that make them more secure. One problem: she’s the one likely to draft the Harris County map. Though not on the committee last session, she was in charge of the House side of the hearing when the House & Senate gatherings came to Houston.

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